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Alphamin Resources (TSXV: AFM)

Last close As at 21/11/2024

CAD1.18

▲ −0.02 (−1.67%)

Market capitalisation

CAD1,506m

Alphamin owns (84.14%) and operates the Bisie tin mine at Mpama North in the North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo with a grade of c 4.5% tin (the world’s highest). Accounting for c 4% of mined supply, it is the second largest tin mine in the world outside China and Indonesia.

Including production from Mpama South from Q224, we calculated a value for Alphamin of US$1.06 (or C$1.44), based on the dividends that can be generated from existing resources. However, this increases to as much as US$1.76 (C$2.36) in the event that the company’s exploration programme continues to extend its mines’ lives indefinitely. In the meantime, its peers imply a share price for Alphamin of C$2.89/share.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining | Update

Alphamin Resources — From alpha to omega

Metals & Mining | Initiation

Alphamin Resources — Still leading the pack

Metals & Mining | Update

Alphamin Resources — Mpama South continues the charge

Metals & Mining | Update

Alphamin Resources — Presenting the bull case
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Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

  • Charles Needham

    Non-executive Chairman

  • Eoin O'Driscoll

    CFO

  • Maritz Smith

    CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)

19

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (5.6) 18.0 35.6
Relative (6.4) 8.6 9.7
52 week high/low C$1.3/C$0.8

Financials

Alphamin announced record quarterly tin production of 4,917t (+22.1% quarter-on-quarter) in Q324 and EBITDA of US$91.6m (+68.8%) after the Mpama South mine completed its first full quarter of production at (or near) steady state. Alphamin’s consolidated annual financial statements and accompanying management discussion and analysis (MD&A) for FY24 will probably be released in early March. In the meantime, we are forecasting that EPS will continue to advance into FY25 and beyond under the influence of continued strength in the tin price and increasing efficiencies as both Mpama North and Mpama South develop (in particular) along strike.

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 391.1 222.2 188.0 7.86 10.8 5.8
2023A 288.5 135.5 94.7 3.68 23.1 544.9
2024E 540.7 274.2 213.2 8.21 10.3 5.2
2025E 585.2 301.9 235.6 9.77 8.7 5.8

Research

Initiation

Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources — Still leading the pack

Update

Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources — Mpama South continues the charge

Metals & Mining

Update

Alphamin Resources — From alpha to omega

Update

Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources — Presenting the bull case

Update

Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources — Underlying results exceed prior forecasts

Update

Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources — Roaring back

Update

Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources — Results confirm long-term potential

Initiation

Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources — Alpha tin actually

QuickView

Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources — New tin producer generating cash flow

Thematics

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Metals & Mining

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thematic

Metals & Mining

Lithium’s adolescence

thematic

Metals & Mining

Lepidico: Offer closes, oversubscribed
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