Helios Underwriting (AIM: HUW)

Last close As at 04/11/2024

GBP1.83

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

GBP133m

Helios Underwriting was established in 2007 primarily to provide investors with a limited liability direct investment into the Lloyd’s insurance market. It is an AIM-quoted holding company, providing underwriting exposure across a diversified portfolio of selected Lloyd’s syndicates.

Lloyd’s released record results with FY23 earnings of £10.7bn (equal to the sum of the preceding decade), on the back of historically high premium increases. Near-term combined ratios may recede from the 17-year FY23 low in a benign large claims (natural catastrophe) environment but should remain attractive, with higher interest rates continuing to boost investment income.

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Lloyd’s Building

Sector

Financials

Equity Analyst

Key Management

  • Arthur Manners

    FD

  • Michael Wade

    Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (£m)

5.8

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

4

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (0.8) 3.4 19.3
Relative 1.0 7.1 6.4
52 week high/low 190.0p/135.5p

Financials

Helios Underwriting (Helios) delivered EPS growth of 35% to 7.7p in H124 and reported a net asset value (NAV) of 191p/share. While its combined ratio of 91.6% deteriorated from 88% in H123 and 85% in FY23 due to seasonal impacts on the 2024 year of account (YOA) and stricter reserving for its 2022 YOA, we forecast an improvement to 88.8% for FY24. Helios experienced cost pressures during the period as a result of abandoning its ‘follow-only’ syndicate initiative and the departure of its CEO. We expect a meaningful reduction in costs in FY25, including a saving in stop-loss reinsurance costs as the company is expected to reduce cover in light of very healthy syndicate solvency levels. We have significantly reduced our forecast underwriting capacity growth for the company to reflect its new strategy, aimed at consolidating its book and focusing on shareholder distribution. We have lifted our FY24 EPS forecast by 10% on higher underwriting and group income expectations and by 4% in FY25 on lower costs, but cut our longer-term EPS forecasts on lower growth expectations. This leaves our valuation unchanged at 280p/share.

Y/E Dec Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (fd) (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 148.1 (5.2) (5.2) (3.1) N/A N/A
2023A 214.9 22.1 22.1 20.8 8.8 13.4
2024E 324.2 26.4 26.4 26.2 7.0 14.5
2025E 410.9 36.4 36.4 36.6 5.0 3.9

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