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Pan African Resources (AIM: PAF)

Last close As at 04/11/2024

GBP0.36

▲ −0.50 (−1.38%)

Market capitalisation

GBP694m

Pan African Resources (PAF) has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 30koz, rising to >100koz).

Prior to its FY24 results, our core valuation of PAF was 48.41 US cents per share, based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rose by 46–57% once other assets (eg Egoli) were also taken into account. In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its peers on at least 69% of commonly used valuation measures and has the 24th highest dividend yield in the precious metals mining sector, globally.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — Analysing H224 and looking forward to FY25

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — Hitting expectations

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — An accounting storm in a legal teacup

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — Upgraded FY24 production guidance
Pan-African-Resources_resized
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Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

  • Cobus Loots

    CEO

  • Deon Louw

    FD

  • Keith Cousens Spencer

    Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

97.6

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

21

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 14.2 22.7 123.5
Relative 16.2 27.0 99.4
52 week high/low 37.8p/15.2p

Financials

Pan African’s (PAF’s) FY24 results were within 1% of our prior forecasts for headline EPS (4.15c cf 4.17c). However, if the contract liability related to its ZAR400m Mintails financing facility were stripped out, we calculate that it would have recorded HEPS of 5.27c, which would have been close to the top of the range of analysts’ expectations and a record for a 12-month period. This sets the stage for more material EPS and cash flow increases in the future as the Mintails contract liability concludes in February at the same time that opex stabilises and capex falls away.

Y/E Jun Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2023A 321.6 121.9 92.9 3.54 13.3 6.8
2024A 373.8 150.9 119.8 4.68 10.0 6.7
2025E 459.3 231.3 182.6 7.28 6.5 5.3
2026E 477.3 227.4 169.4 6.71 7.0 3.9

Research

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Hitting expectations

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — An accounting storm in a legal teacup

Metals & Mining

Update

Pan African Resources — Analysing H224 and looking forward to FY25

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Upgraded FY24 production guidance

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — A happy valentine
Pan-African-Resources_resized

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Anticipating a happy valentine
Pan-African-Resources_resized

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Valuation up 22.2% with new gold price forecasts
Pan-African-Resources_resized

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Advancing to 250koz in annual output in FY26

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Dividend yield trending higher than P/E ratio

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Taking the rough with the smooth

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Innovative funding avoids dilution
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Thematics

thematic

Metals & Mining

Shades of the 1970s

thematic

Metals & Mining

Critical minerals: The investment vacuum
samuel-scrimshaw-kp_87tExCwI-unsplash

thematic

Metals & Mining

Lithium’s adolescence

thematic

Metals & Mining

Lepidico: Offer closes, oversubscribed
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