Pan American Silver (NYSE: PAAS)

Last close As at 01/11/2024

USD22.99

−0.42 (−1.79%)

Market capitalisation

USD8,498m

Pan American Silver is one of the largest global primary silver producers and a sizeable gold miner with operations in North, Central and South America since 1994. It owns 11 producing operations, the currently suspended top tier Escobal silver mine and a number of large-scale advanced exploration/development projects.

While the gold price has recently reached an all-time high, Pan American shares continue to lag. We see further upside in the stock, if commodity prices remain at elevated levels and the company continues to deliver on its guidance.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining | Flash note

Pan American Silver — Strong reserves replacement rates for key assets

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan American Silver — Q224 results: Steady progress

Metals & Mining | Flash note

Pan American Silver — Investor day takeaways

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan American Silver — A taste of things to come

Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Equity Analyst

Andrey Litvin

Energy and Resources Analyst

Harry Kilby

Analyst

Key Management

  • Guido Mastropietro

    Director, finance

  • Siren Fisekci

    VP, investor relations and corporate communic

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

186.1

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

4

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 12.2 1.9 60.2
Relative 13.3 (1.4) 17.8
52 week high/low US$25.9/US$12.2

Financials

Adjusted for the divestment of MARA, Morococha and Jeronimo, Pan American has reported flat P&P reserves in the silver segment of 45.8Mt at a grade of 289 g/t Ag versus 274 g/t Ag at June 2023, effectively replacing the mined tonnage during the year. In the gold segment, adjusted P&P reserves fell from c 200mt (at 1.1 g/t Au) to 180Mt (1.1 g/t Au), with the biggest drop recorded at La Arena, which is being divested, and Dolores, which was expected to cease mining in Q324. On the same basis, M&I resources in the silver segment increased from 278Mt to 446Mt, albeit at a reduced Ag grade, thanks to the upgrade at La Colorada Skarn, which saw a 53% rise in indicated resource to 265Mt at an increased grade of 36 g/t Ag, with the inferred resource falling 40% as a result. In the gold segment, M&I resources were only slightly lower at 977Mt at 0.48 g/t Au. Overall, six of 11 producing operations, including flagship Jacobina and La Colorada, have seen their mineral reserves either fully or almost fully replaced in tonnage terms in the year to June 2024.

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 1494.7 272.0 (73.0) (54.06) N/A N/A
2023A 2316.1 680.6 108.4 19.45 120.4 N/A
2024E 2791.1 924.2 333.0 22.48 104.1 113.6
2025E 2396.2 803.6 331.3 49.52 47.3 46.6

Research

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — A taste of things to come

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — La Arena divestment

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — FY23 results: Follow the cash flow

Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Consistent growth at higher costs

Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Adjusting valuation on Skarn

Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Skarn PEA confirms its early potential

Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — La Colorada to restart after suspension

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