Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM)

Last close As at 04/11/2024

CAD90.93

−1.02 (−1.11%)

Market capitalisation

CAD41,715m

Wheaton Precious Metals is the world’s pre-eminent ostensibly precious metals streaming company, with over 30 high-quality precious metals streams and early deposit agreements over mines in Mexico, Canada, Brazil, Chile, the US, Argentina, Peru, Sweden, Greece, Portugal and Colombia.

Using a capital asset pricing-type model, whereby we discount cash flows at a nominal 9% per year, our ‘terminal’ valuation of Wheaton in FY27 is US$57.78/share, assuming zero long-term growth in real cash flows (per share) thereafter (which is unlikely). If we instead assume 7.4% pa long-term growth in cash flows, however (ie the compound average annual gold price growth rate since 1967), our valuation increases manyfold to US$139.47/share. Alternatively, we calculate a value per share for Wheaton of US$54.61 in FY27, based on a historical multiple of 30.8x contemporary earnings. Q324 results are scheduled for 7 November.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining | Update

Wheaton Precious Metals — Salobo tasting sweet

Metals & Mining | Update

Wheaton Precious Metals — Continuing where Q1 left off

Metals & Mining | Update

Wheaton Precious Metals — A strong start to FY24

Metals & Mining | Update

Wheaton Precious Metals — Celebrating the Ides of March

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Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

  • Emma Murray

    Director of investor relations

  • Gary D. Brown

    CFO

  • Patrick Drouin

    SVP, Investor Relations

  • Randy V. J. Smallwood

    CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)

646.6

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 11.3 11.4 57.0
Relative 10.6 6.6 22.7
52 week high/low C$94.7/C$52.9

Financials

Ahead of Wheaton’s scheduled Q3 results after the bell on Thursday 7 November, we have adjusted our earnings forecasts for the quarter to take account of generally higher precious metals prices, lower production and sales at Penasquito, Constancia and San Dimas, but higher production and sales at Salobo. Specifically, Vale’s announcement that Salobo produced 46.6kt of copper in Q3 implies gold production attributable to Wheaton of 65,019oz ±3,480oz (cf 54,750oz previously forecast). As a result, we have upgraded our forecast EPS for Q3 fractionally. However, we have upgraded our forecast for FY24 by a more material 9.9c/share, largely on account of the effect of higher precious metals prices on Q4 earnings. Note that if current metals prices persist, our FY25 EPS forecast will be US$1.72/share (cf the US$1.24/share shown below).

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 1065.1 735.2 505.4 112.0 59.1 40.5
2023A 1016.0 719.7 533.4 118.0 56.1 41.3
2024E 1309.0 1005.8 775.5 145.0 45.6 29.1
2025E 1322.4 961.1 654.5 124.0 53.3 31.1

Research

Update

Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Celebrating the Ides of March

Update

Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Putting WPM onto GMT

Wheaton-Precious-Metals_resized

Update

Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Putting net cash to work

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Update

Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Teeing up to hit long-term targets

Wheaton-Precious-Metals_resized

Update

Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Honing Q323 numbers

Update

Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Peerless

Wheaton-Precious-Metals_resized

Update

Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Honing Q223 forecasts

Update

Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Q123 in line; looking to H2

Further insights

insight

Cobalt

Thematics

thematic

Metals & Mining

Macro Outlook – Price weakness on the cards

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