4imprint is the leading direct marketer of promotional products in the United States, Canada, the UK and Ireland. In FY23, 98% of revenues were generated in the United States and Canada.
The US promotional products distribution market is highly fragmented and PPAI estimated its 2023 value at US$26.1bn, up 2.2% on the year, after a disappointing Q4. For Q124, the PPAI are indicating sales up 1.5%, but the other industry body, ASI, indicating a dip of 0.9%. Given US inflation for Q124 of 3.5%, this implies a further dip in volumes. Some questions remain about confidence in the US corporate sector but the utility of promotional products is high and sector prospects remain positive.
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Outlook
David Seekings
FD
Kevin Lyons-Tarr
CEO
Forecast net cash (US$m)
125
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
N/A
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | (3.6) | (5.1) | 20.7 |
Relative | (2.3) | (8.4) | 9.0 |
52 week high/low | 6540.0p/4255.0p |
4imprint’s AGM trading update in May indicated a solid start to the year against a challenging market backdrop, with FY24 expectations (and therefore our forecasts) unchanged. Group revenue growth of 6% over the prior year for the four months to end-April is clearly ahead of the North American market, where Q124 industry revenue indications range from broadly flat to a small decline, indicating that the group is continuing to build market share. 4imprint is the largest distributor in North America, yet still only has a market share of around 5%, giving it plenty of runway for growth. CFO David Seekings has announced his intention to retire before the end of 2025, giving ample time for a suitable succession to be arranged.
Y/E Dec | Revenue (US$m) | EBITDA (US$m) | PBT (US$m) | EPS (fd) (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 1140.3 | 108.4 | 103.7 | 285.6 | 25.6 | 20.2 |
2023A | 1326.5 | 142.6 | 140.7 | 377.9 | 19.3 | 12.3 |
2024E | 1430.0 | 149.9 | 146.5 | 395.2 | 18.5 | 15.2 |
2025E | 1500.0 | 157.0 | 153.8 | 408.7 | 17.9 | 12.6 |