Alphamin owns (84.14%) and operates the Bisie tin mine at Mpama North in the North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo with a grade of c 4.5% tin (the world’s highest). Accounting for c 4% of mined supply, it is the second largest tin mine in the world outside China and Indonesia.
Including production from Mpama South from Q224, we calculated a value for Alphamin of US$1.06 (or C$1.44), based on the dividends that can be generated from existing resources. However, this increases to as much as US$1.76 (C$2.36) in the event that the company’s exploration programme continues to extend its mines’ lives indefinitely. In the meantime, its peers imply a share price for Alphamin of C$2.89/share.
Metals & Mining |
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Charles Needham
Non-executive Chairman
Eoin O'Driscoll
CFO
Maritz Smith
CEO
Forecast net cash (US$m)
19
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
N/A
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | (5.6) | 18.0 | 35.6 |
Relative | (6.4) | 8.6 | 9.7 |
52 week high/low | C$1.3/C$0.8 |
Alphamin announced record quarterly tin production of 4,917t (+22.1% quarter-on-quarter) in Q324 and EBITDA of US$91.6m (+68.8%) after the Mpama South mine completed its first full quarter of production at (or near) steady state. Alphamin’s consolidated annual financial statements and accompanying management discussion and analysis (MD&A) for FY24 will probably be released in early March. In the meantime, we are forecasting that EPS will continue to advance into FY25 and beyond under the influence of continued strength in the tin price and increasing efficiencies as both Mpama North and Mpama South develop (in particular) along strike.
Y/E Dec | Revenue (US$m) | EBITDA (US$m) | PBT (US$m) | EPS (fd) (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 391.1 | 222.2 | 188.0 | 7.86 | 10.6 | 5.7 |
2023A | 288.5 | 135.5 | 94.7 | 3.68 | 22.7 | 535.7 |
2024E | 540.7 | 274.2 | 213.2 | 8.21 | 10.2 | 5.1 |
2025E | 585.2 | 301.9 | 235.6 | 9.77 | 8.5 | 5.7 |
thematic
Metals & Mining