Alphamin owns (84.14%) and operates the Bisie tin mine at Mpama North in the North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo with a grade of c 4.5% tin (the world’s highest). Accounting for c 4% of mined supply, it is the second largest tin mine in the world outside China and Indonesia.
Including production from Mpama South from Q224, we calculate a value for Alphamin of US$1.06 (or C$1.44), based on the dividends that can be generated from its existing resources. However, this increases to as much as US$1.76 (C$2.36) in the event that the company’s exploration programme continues to extend its mines’ lives indefinitely. In the meantime, its peers imply a share price for Alphamin of C$2.89/share.
Metals & Mining |
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Metals & Mining |
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Metals & Mining |
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Metals & Mining |
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Charles Needham
Non-executive Chairman
Eoin O'Driscoll
CFO
Maritz Smith
CEO
Forecast net cash (US$m)
1.9
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
N/A
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | (2.3) | 13.3 | 9.8 |
Relative | 0.1 | 13.9 | (1.3) |
52 week high/low | C$1.2/C$0.8 |
Alphamin offers rare exposure to a metal that both Rio Tinto and MIT regard as the most likely to benefit from the energy transition. The company successfully ramped up its Mpama North mine at Bisie in the Democratic Republic of the Congo just as the tin price was enjoying one of its biggest bull markets in decades, allowing it to pay off debt and start making distributions to shareholders. Now, in the midst of a second similar squeeze, it has brought a second mine, Mpama South, into production, which will expand group tin output by c 50% to c 20,000tpa.
Y/E Dec | Revenue (US$m) | EBITDA (US$m) | PBT (US$m) | EPS (fd) (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 391.1 | 222.2 | 188.0 | 7.86 | 9.9 | 5.3 |
2023A | 288.5 | 135.5 | 94.7 | 3.68 | 21.1 | 497.4 |
2024E | 477.7 | 241.5 | 199.3 | 9.14 | 8.5 | 4.5 |
2025E | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
thematic
Metals & Mining