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AVAX (ASE: AVAX)

Last close As at 02/07/2024

EUR1.35

▲ −0.01 (−0.74%)

Market capitalisation

EUR199m

Based in Greece, AVAX operates through three main segments: construction, concessions and real estate, and marinas, with a large international footprint. The largest segment, construction, is involved in large-scale private and public works, with unique experience among its peers, in energy infrastructure and subway construction.

The Greek construction market is worth around €7.5bn and can be split into two distinct sectors, housebuilding (c 30%) and civil engineering (c 70% non-residential construction, including commercial and infrastructure projects), including both private and public works. According to ELSTAT, overall average construction activity fell by just 9.5% in 2020, before increasing 7% in 2021 and 24.4% in 2022, the highest level since 2017 in absolute terms.

Latest Insights

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Industrials | Update

AVAX — Strong pipeline reaffirmed

Industrials | Flash note

AVAX — Exceeding expectations

Industrials | Update

AVAX — Record work-in-hand points to strong growth

Industrials | Flash note

AVAX — Completed divestment from energy sector
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Sector

Industrials

Equity Analyst

Andy Murphy

Andy Murphy

Director, Financials & Industrials

Analyst avatar placeholder

Key Management

  • Christos Ioannou

    Executive chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (€m)

170.5

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

93

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (15.5) (17.3) 11.1
Relative (11.2) (16.3) (2.5)
52 week high/low €1.9/€1.2

Financials

AVAX’s FY23 results highlight the group’s progress domestically as the market improved, more than offsetting the weaker international performance at the top-line and EBITDA level. We have downgraded our 2024 EPS estimates to reflect guidance on continued construction project delays. However, our forecasts incorporate a substantial year-on-year increase in profits, with both PBT and net income more than doubling, bolstered by a record order book of €3.3bn. Our fair value stands at €3.0/share (€3.2/share previously), indicating more than 100% upside potential.

Y/E Dec Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m) PBT (€m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 402.7 58.2 25.1 13.33 10.1 3.3
2023A 453.5 61.1 21.8 10.41 13.0 3.2
2024E 733.7 86.1 45.5 22.62 6.0 2.3
2025E 834.9 104.5 63.3 30.72 4.4 1.9

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