Dar Global is a highly differentiated international real estate business. It focuses predominantly on real estate projects comprising second homes for internationally mobile customers, in some of the most desirable locations across the GCC and Europe.
The collective wealth of high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth individuals grew by 7.1% pa in the three years to 2021 and over 5% pa in the seven years to 2022, despite declines in 2018 and 2022 (source: Knight Frank). The concentration of wealth is expected to continue to grow, implying that the percentage of the population that enjoys such wealth is likely to have doubled in the 10 years to 2026 in many countries and regions.
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Shivaraman Iyer
CFO
Ziad El Chaar
CEO
Forecast net debt (US$m)
316.8
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
60
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
Relative | 1.3 | (2.4) | (9.0) |
52 week high/low | US$3.7/US$3.6 |
Dar Global’s latest luxury branded residential project, its first with Aston Martin, fits well with its strategy and follows its other recent announcements including its initiative in the Maldives with Dolce & Gabbana and its geographical expansion into Saudi Arabia. We anticipate that Dar Global will generate a return on equity in the mid-to-high teens across its portfolio in the medium term and, thus, we continue to value the company on a multiple of shareholders’ funds basis at c US$930m (US$5.17 per share), implying c 40% upside. Our forecasts are unchanged but we believe this new project implies that risks are to the upside.
Y/E Dec | Revenue (US$m) | EBITDA (US$m) | PBT (US$m) | EPS (fd) (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 80.0 | (6.9) | (5.2) | 0.0 | N/A | N/A |
2023A | 360.6 | 84.8 | 81.2 | 23.08 | 15.9 | 15.7 |
2024E | 309.4 | 72.9 | 70.4 | 35.20 | 10.5 | 9.1 |
2025E | 391.6 | 94.2 | 96.7 | 48.34 | 7.6 | 7.0 |