Greggs - Edison Group

Overview
Price performance
Financials
Research
Sector insights
Thematics

With 2,473 shops and 12 manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.

Greggs’ ambition to double revenue by FY26 has four key growth drivers: growing and developing the estate; leveraging digital channels; extending trading hours to the evening; and broadening customer appeal and driving loyalty. All will be enabled by higher investment in the supply chain and systems.

Latest Insights

View More

Consumer |
Update

14.05.24

Greggs — Encouraging start to FY24

Consumer |
Outlook

02.04.24

Greggs — Showing us how it’s done

Consumer |
edison tv

26.03.24

Greggs – executive interview

Consumer |
Update

11.01.24

Greggs — A strong finish to FY23

Sector

Consumer

Equity Analyst

Russell Pointon

Russell Pointon

Director of Content, Consumer and Media

Analyst, Consumer and TMT

Key Management

Richard Hutton

FD
Roisin Currie

CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (£m)

73

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
%	1M	3M	12M
Actual	(3.7)	(2.3)	9.9
Relative	(2.5)	(5.7)	(0.7)
52 week high/low	2940.0p/2282.0p

Financials

Greggs’ trading update for the first 19 weeks of the year showed the company is driving superior revenue growth (c 19% y-o-y) from its key initiatives of growing space, delivery and evening sales and leveraging the app along with its continuous menu enhancements, despite what has continued to be a challenging backdrop for consumers. The strong revenue growth on top of a tough comparative from the prior year includes both volume and price growth, which compares very well versus many other consumer-facing companies.

Y/E Dec	Revenue (£m)	EBITDA (£m)	PBT (£m)	EPS (fd) (p)	P/E (x)	P/CF (x)
2022A	1512.8	269.9	148.3	117.5	23.5	10.3
2023A	1809.6	299.2	167.7	123.8	22.3	8.4
2024E	2013.6	344.5	182.8	131.1	21.1	7.8
2025E	2230.9	385.0	201.4	144.4	19.1	7.0

Research

Update

Consumer

05.01.23

Greggs plc — Eye-catching revenue growth

Update

Consumer

04.10.22

Greggs plc — A ‘relative winner’

Consumer

Outlook

Greggs — Profits on the go

Update

Consumer

04.08.22

Greggs plc — Strong H122 trading and progress on strategy

Update

Consumer

17.05.22

Greggs — Profit outlook maintained for FY22

Outlook

Consumer

15.03.22

Greggs plc — Not peak Greggs yet

Flash note

Consumer

06.10.21

Greggs — Medium-term growth ambition quantified

Update

Consumer

06.08.21

Greggs — Let’s talk about growth…

Update

Consumer

28.06.21

Greggs — Rate of recovery continues to surprise

Update

Consumer

11.05.21

Greggs — Recovering better than expected

Update

Consumer

17.03.21

Greggs — Looking forward

Update

Consumer

07.01.21

Greggs plc — New national lockdown tempers outlook

Update

Consumer

30.09.20

Greggs — Learning to manage

Update

Consumer

04.08.20

Greggs plc — Gradual recovery expected

Flash note

Consumer

24.03.20

Greggs plc — Protecting employees and customers

Update

Consumer

04.03.20

Greggs — Very tasty

Update

Consumer

08.01.20

Greggs — ‘A very strong finish to a spectacular year’

Update

Consumer

12.11.19

Greggs — Accelerating sales growth

Update

Consumer

01.10.19

Greggs — Continued strong like-for-like sales growth

Update

Consumer

06.08.19

Greggs — More than just the vegan-friendly sausage roll

Update

Consumer

14.05.19

Greggs — Robust trading performance – earnings upgrade

Outlook

Consumer

14.03.19

Greggs — Brand transformation rolls out cash

Update

Consumer

19.02.19

Greggs plc — On a roll – unscheduled vegan-driven upgrade

Update

Consumer

09.01.19

Greggs plc — An exceptionally strong end to the year

Update

Consumer

28.11.18

Greggs plc — Raising earnings expectations

Update

Consumer

09.10.18

Greggs plc — Greggs passes the scorch test

edison tv

Consumer

09.08.18

Executive interview – Greggs

Update

Consumer

03.08.18

Greggs plc — Transformation taking shape

Update

Consumer

10.05.18

Greggs plc — Growth moderates, but strategy on plan

Outlook

Consumer

14.03.18

Greggs plc — Value discovery

Update

Consumer

09.08.17

Greggs — In balance

Update

Consumer

22.05.17

Greggs — Promising performance, strengthened proposition

research

Consumer

06.03.17

Greggs — Successful strategy offers further potential

Flash note

Consumer

17.01.17

Greggs plc — Update 17 January 2017

Update

Consumer

12.10.16

Greggs — Update 12 October 2016

Update

Consumer

03.08.16

Greggs — Update 3 August 2016

Update

Consumer

11.05.16

Greggs — Update 11 May 2016

Initiation

Consumer

25.04.16

Greggs — Update 25 April 2016

Further insights

insight

Consumer

04.09.18

The UK restaurant market

thematic

Consumer

26.07.23

ConsumerWatch – Making the most of the summer

thematic

Consumer

21.04.23

ConsumerWatch – A Spring in the step

thematic

Consumer

23.01.23

ConsumerWatch – January sales

thematic

Consumer

13.10.22

ConsumerWatch – Bargains galore

thematic

Consumer

05.10.22

IPO apocalypse

thematic

Consumer

03.10.22

Food tech – At the forefront of food innovation

thematic

TMT

10.08.22

ESG, moving beyond the box tick

thematic

Consumer

18.07.22

ConsumerWatch – Value emerging

thematic

Consumer

24.03.22

Circular economy business models

thematic

Consumer

04.02.22

Moving from a vegan January to a sustainable one

thematic

Consumer

10.01.22

Cultivated meat – Engineering the growth of alternative meats

thematic

Consumer

06.09.21

The future of fish – The investment case for sustainable fishing

thematic

Consumer

29.10.20

Meating Demand – The lean, green money-making machine

thematic

Consumer

14.08.19

Illuminator: August Update

thematic

Consumer

11.11.14

Deutsche Börse Eigenkapitalforum 2014 Research Guide