JDC Group reported a 5.6% increase in revenues, to €55.1m, and 9.1% higher EBITDA of €2.5m in Q325. Management reiterated FY25 guidance for revenues of €260–280m and EBITDA of €20.5–22.5m, but said it expected results to come in at the lower end of the range due to increasingly negative consumer confidence in Germany. Management also reiterated FY26 EBITDA forecast of over €35m. The recently acquired 60% stake in FMK Group was consolidated in JDC’s results as of 1 September and contributed to the results for one month. We have lowered our estimates to reflect the shift in the guided range. At our new estimates, we still believe that JDC’s valuation is undemanding. Our discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis arrives at a fair value of €35.63 per share (previously €36.89 per share).

After the announcement that it has acquired 60% of lead-generating specialist FMK Group (FMK), JDC reported Q2 results last week. Management reiterated the new FY25 and FY26 guidance that was provided with the announcement of the FMK transaction. With the acquisition, the former FY30 target for EBITDA of €40–50m is already in sight and is now expected to be reached by FY27 at the latest. On our estimates, the lower end of this range could be reached in FY26. JDC is trading on an FY25e EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple of 15.3x (was 13.7x at Q1), which still appears undemanding, particularly compared to platform peers. Our discounted cash flow (DCF) values JDC at €36.89/share, increased from €34.56/share previously largely due to the FMK transaction.

JDC Group has acquired 60% of lead generation specialist FMK Group. The total purchase price consists of a fixed component in the mid-double-digit million euro range and variable components in the form of earn-out payments in the low-double-digit million euro range. As such, it is JDC’s largest acquisition to date. We expect management to provide more information on the transaction and its metrics during the investor and analyst call scheduled for Wednesday 6 August at 2pm CET. JDC has also increased its FY25 guidance and provided guidance for FY26. Please note that the estimates below have not yet been adjusted for the acquisition.