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Pan African Resources (AIM: PAF)

Last close As at 02/07/2024

GBP0.27

▲ 1.05 (4.03%)

Market capitalisation

GBP586m

Pan African Resources (PAF) has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 30koz, rising to >100koz).

We have recently increased our core valuation of PAF to 48.08 US cents per share, based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rises by 46–57% once other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account. In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its peers on at least 66% of commonly used valuation measures and has the 18th highest dividend yield in the precious metals mining sector, globally.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — An accounting storm in a legal teacup

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — Upgraded FY24 production guidance

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — A happy valentine

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan African Resources — Anticipating a happy valentine
Pan-African-Resources_resized
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Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

  • Cobus Loots

    CEO

  • Deon Louw

    FD

  • Keith Cousens Spencer

    Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

93.8

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

26

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 5.6 26.7 104.9
Relative 7.0 22.3 85.1
52 week high/low 27.6p/12.1p

Financials

After exceeding our forecasts in FY23, Pan African’s (PAF’s) interim adjusted EBITDA achieved a record of ZAR1,513m in H124 – 20% above the previous record. Since then, production guidance for FY24 has been increased to 186-190koz (cf 180–190koz previously) at an unchanged all-in sustaining cost of US$1,325-1,350/oz and it has concluded a five-year wage agreement at Barberton. As a result, we have increased our normalised EPS estimate for the year by 19%. Within the next two years, however, we expect output to exceed 250koz pa and normalised EPS to exceed 6c/share.

Y/E Jun Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 376.4 147.8 117.2 4.44 7.7 4.6
2023A 321.6 121.9 92.9 3.54 9.7 4.9
2024E 390.3 177.6 141.7 5.73 6.0 6.0
2025E 420.8 206.6 162.4 6.28 5.5 3.5

Research

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — Upgraded FY24 production guidance

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan African Resources — A happy valentine

Metals & Mining

Update

Pan African Resources — An accounting storm in a legal teacup
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Thematics

thematic

Metals & Mining

Shades of the 1970s

thematic

Metals & Mining

Critical minerals: The investment vacuum
samuel-scrimshaw-kp_87tExCwI-unsplash

thematic

Metals & Mining

Lithium’s adolescence

thematic

Metals & Mining

Lepidico: Offer closes, oversubscribed
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