Pan African Resources - Edison Group

Overview
Price performance
Financials
Research
Thematics

Pan African Resources (PAF) has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 30koz, rising to >100koz).

Our core valuation of PAF is 40.93 US cents per share, based on projects either already in production or sanctioned at a long-term (real) gold price of US$1,794/oz. However, this rises by 54–67% if other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account, while historical P/E ratios imply a value of 44.70p in FY25 and 41.17pp in FY26 and its peers imply valuations of 61.03p and 43.33p (respectively).

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining |
Update

14.11.24

Pan African Resources — Tennant Creek acquisition

Metals & Mining |
Update

27.09.24

Pan African Resources — Analysing H224 and looking forward to FY25

Metals & Mining |
Update

31.07.24

Pan African Resources — Hitting expectations

Metals & Mining |
Update

24.05.24

Pan African Resources — An accounting storm in a legal teacup

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Sector

Metals & Mining

Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

Cobus Loots

CEO
Deon Louw

FD
Keith Cousens Spencer

Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

125.8

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

25

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
%	1M	3M	12M
Actual	(3.7)	17.5	132.1
Relative	(0.3)	20.5	114.8
52 week high/low	37.8p/15.2p

Financials

On 5 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that it is to acquire privately owned Tennant Consolidated Mining Group (TCMG) in Australia’s Northern Territory for a total consideration of US$54.2m in an all-share deal that involves it issuing an additional 125.4m shares (or 6.5% of its existing share capital). The acquisition price equates to an undemanding US$42.15 per resource ounce of gold or US$139.21 per reserve ounce. While we expect the acquisition to have little effect on PAF’s earnings in FY25 (apart from the increase in share capital), we estimate that it will increase FY26 earnings by US$24.6m (or 19.1%) and FY27 earnings by US$42.6m (or 29.6%) and, on this basis, will undoubtedly be accretive.

Y/E Jun	Revenue (US$m)	EBITDA (US$m)	PBT (US$m)	EPS (c)	P/E (x)	P/CF (x)
2023A	321.6	121.9	92.9	3.54	13.3	6.8
2024A	373.8	150.9	119.8	4.68	10.1	6.7
2025E	459.3	238.0	190.5	7.09	6.6	5.5
2026E	597.7	276.8	207.1	7.51	6.3	3.4

Flash note

Metals & Mining

17.03.23

Pan African Resources — Innovative funding avoids dilution

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Update

Metals & Mining

16.02.23

Pan African Resources — Forecast upgrade

Update

14.11.22

Pan African Resources — Setting the scene for FY23 and beyond

Update

Metals & Mining

07.07.22

Pan African Resources — Building steam

Update

Metals & Mining

08.04.22

Pan African Resources — Quietly getting the job done in South Africa

Outlook

Metals & Mining

28.10.21

Pan African Resources — Everything falling into place

Update

Metals & Mining

21.07.21

Pan African Resources — Exceeding expectations (as usual)

Update

Metals & Mining

03.03.21

Pan African Resources — Record interim profitability

edison tv

Metals & Mining

03.12.20

Webinar: Pan African Resources

Update

Metals & Mining

17.11.20

Pan African Resources — Entailed

Update

Metals & Mining

14.10.20

Pan African Resources — The sun rises over Egoliâs city of gold

edison tv

Metals & Mining

17.09.20

Pan African Resources – executive interview

Update

Metals & Mining

28.07.20

Pan African Resources — Back to where it belongs

Update

Metals & Mining

12.05.20

Pan African Resources — Roundabouts and swings

Update

Metals & Mining

02.03.20

Pan African Resources — H120 confirms FY20 forecasts

Update

Metals & Mining

02.10.19

Pan African Resources — Entering harvest mode

Update

Metals & Mining

19.06.19

Pan African Resources — Solid push towards year end

Outlook

Metals & Mining

12.03.19

Pan African Resources — Elikhulu underpins recovery

Update

Metals & Mining

12.11.18

Pan African Resources — On track for 170koz in FY19

Update

Metals & Mining

11.10.18

Pan African Resources — Return to dividend paying status in FY19 a priority

Update

Metals & Mining

19.07.18

Pan African Resources — EGM’s Parthian shot

Update

Metals & Mining

16.05.18

Pan African Resources — Finishing unfinished business

Update

Metals & Mining

23.04.18

Pan African Resources — A second glance at the first half

Update

Metals & Mining

28.09.17

Pan African Resources — FY17 results in line

Update

Metals & Mining

24.08.17

Pan African Resources — Disposals hone investment case

Update

Metals & Mining

17.05.17

Pan African Resources — Canning coal

Update

Metals & Mining

04.04.17

Pan African Resources — Tails wagging

Update

Metals & Mining

13.12.16

Pan African Resources — Update 13 December 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

28.09.16

Pan African Resources — Update 28 September 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

18.08.16

Pan African Resources — Update 18 August 2016

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Metals & Mining

16.03.16

Pan African Resources — Update 15 March 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

25.02.16

Pan African Resources — Update 24 February 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

11.02.16

Pan African Resources — Update 10 February 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

10.12.15

Pan African Resources — Update 9 December 2015