Pan African Resources - Edison Group

Overview
Price performance
Financials
Research
Thematics

Pan African Resources (PAF) has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 30koz, rising to >100koz).

We have recently increased our core valuation of PAF to 48.08 US cents per share, based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rises by 46–57% once other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account. In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its peers on at least 66% of commonly used valuation measures and has the 18th highest dividend yield in the precious metals mining sector, globally.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining |
Update

24.05.24

Pan African Resources — An accounting storm in a legal teacup

Metals & Mining |
Update

20.05.24

Pan African Resources — Upgraded FY24 production guidance

Metals & Mining |
Update

20.02.24

Pan African Resources — A happy valentine

Metals & Mining |
Update

26.01.24

Pan African Resources — Anticipating a happy valentine

Pan-African-Resources_resized

Sector

Metals & Mining

Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

Cobus Loots

CEO
Deon Louw

FD
Keith Cousens Spencer

Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

93.8

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

26

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
%	1M	3M	12M
Actual	5.6	26.7	104.9
Relative	7.0	22.3	85.1
52 week high/low	27.6p/12.1p

Financials

After exceeding our forecasts in FY23, Pan African’s (PAF’s) interim adjusted EBITDA achieved a record of ZAR1,513m in H124 – 20% above the previous record. Since then, production guidance for FY24 has been increased to 186-190koz (cf 180–190koz previously) at an unchanged all-in sustaining cost of US$1,325-1,350/oz and it has concluded a five-year wage agreement at Barberton. As a result, we have increased our normalised EPS estimate for the year by 19%. Within the next two years, however, we expect output to exceed 250koz pa and normalised EPS to exceed 6c/share.

Y/E Jun	Revenue (US$m)	EBITDA (US$m)	PBT (US$m)	EPS (c)	P/E (x)	P/CF (x)
2022A	376.4	147.8	117.2	4.44	7.7	4.6
2023A	321.6	121.9	92.9	3.54	9.7	4.9
2024E	390.3	177.6	141.7	5.73	6.0	6.0
2025E	420.8	206.6	162.4	6.28	5.5	3.5

Research

Pan-African-Resources_resized

Update

Metals & Mining

16.02.23

Pan African Resources — Forecast upgrade

Update

14.11.22

Pan African Resources — Setting the scene for FY23 and beyond

Metals & Mining

Flash note

Pan African Resources — Innovative funding avoids dilution

Update

Metals & Mining

07.07.22

Pan African Resources — Building steam

Update

Metals & Mining

08.04.22

Pan African Resources — Quietly getting the job done in South Africa

Outlook

Metals & Mining

28.10.21

Pan African Resources — Everything falling into place

Update

Metals & Mining

21.07.21

Pan African Resources — Exceeding expectations (as usual)

Update

Metals & Mining

03.03.21

Pan African Resources — Record interim profitability

edison tv

Metals & Mining

03.12.20

Webinar: Pan African Resources

Update

Metals & Mining

17.11.20

Pan African Resources — Entailed

Update

Metals & Mining

14.10.20

Pan African Resources — The sun rises over Egoliâs city of gold

edison tv

Metals & Mining

17.09.20

Pan African Resources – executive interview

Update

Metals & Mining

28.07.20

Pan African Resources — Back to where it belongs

Update

Metals & Mining

12.05.20

Pan African Resources — Roundabouts and swings

Update

Metals & Mining

02.03.20

Pan African Resources — H120 confirms FY20 forecasts

Update

Metals & Mining

02.10.19

Pan African Resources — Entering harvest mode

Update

Metals & Mining

19.06.19

Pan African Resources — Solid push towards year end

Outlook

Metals & Mining

12.03.19

Pan African Resources — Elikhulu underpins recovery

Update

Metals & Mining

12.11.18

Pan African Resources — On track for 170koz in FY19

Update

Metals & Mining

11.10.18

Pan African Resources — Return to dividend paying status in FY19 a priority

Update

Metals & Mining

19.07.18

Pan African Resources — EGM’s Parthian shot

Update

Metals & Mining

16.05.18

Pan African Resources — Finishing unfinished business

Update

Metals & Mining

23.04.18

Pan African Resources — A second glance at the first half

Update

Metals & Mining

28.09.17

Pan African Resources — FY17 results in line

Update

Metals & Mining

24.08.17

Pan African Resources — Disposals hone investment case

Update

Metals & Mining

17.05.17

Pan African Resources — Canning coal

Update

Metals & Mining

04.04.17

Pan African Resources — Tails wagging

Update

Metals & Mining

13.12.16

Pan African Resources — Update 13 December 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

28.09.16

Pan African Resources — Update 28 September 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

18.08.16

Pan African Resources — Update 18 August 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

16.03.16

Pan African Resources — Update 15 March 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

25.02.16

Pan African Resources — Update 24 February 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

11.02.16

Pan African Resources — Update 10 February 2016

Update

Metals & Mining

10.12.15

Pan African Resources — Update 9 December 2015

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02.10.12

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14.09.12

Mining catalyst: China’s new stimulus

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20.08.12

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10.05.12

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25.04.12

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16.12.11

Macro Outlook – Price weakness on the cards

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07.10.11

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