Pan American Silver (NYSE: PAAS)

Last close As at 02/07/2024

USD19.61

−0.27 (−1.36%)

Market capitalisation

USD7,337m

Pan American Silver is one of the largest global primary silver producers and a sizeable gold miner with operations in North, Central and South America since 1994. It owns 11 producing operations, the currently suspended top tier Escobal silver mine and a number of large-scale advanced exploration/development projects.

Despite a recent healthy rebound in the share price, we believe there could be further upside if commodity prices remain at elevated levels and PAAS continues to deliver on its cost and production guidance throughout 2024.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining | Flash note

Pan American Silver — Investor day takeaways

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan American Silver — A taste of things to come

Metals & Mining | Flash note

Pan American Silver — La Arena divestment

Metals & Mining | Update

Pan American Silver — FY23 results: Follow the cash flow

Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Equity Analyst

Andrey Litvin

Energy and Resources Analyst

Harry Kilby

Analyst

Key Management

  • Guido Mastropietro

    Director, finance

  • Siren Fisekci

    VP, investor relations and corporate communic

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

44.8

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

1

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (4.4) 44.5 37.3
Relative (7.4) 37.3 8.5
52 week high/low US$22.6/US$12.2

Financials

The key takeaways from Pan American’s (PAAS’s) investor day on 18 June are as follows. The recent government changes in Guatemala caused a delay in the ILO 169 consultation process at Escobal. PAAS awaits reappointment of the vice minister of sustainable development, expected in July, to restart the process and re-establish the timeline. At La Colorada, PAAS is working towards resolving the well-publicised ventilation issues and is on track to commission new ventilation fans in July. The ongoing optimisation programme at Jacobina is considering a change in mining method to paste backfill that will potentially enable PAAS to develop deeper parts of the project’s resources and reduce costs. At Skarn, PAAS has been in early discussions with various potential development partners. However, the current focus remains on advancing the project to the PFS, or updated PEA, stage which will determine the mining method and the project’s economics.

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 1494.7 272.0 (73.0) (54.06) N/A N/A
2023A 2316.1 680.6 108.4 19.45 100.8 N/A
2024E 2743.8 958.6 374.7 57.80 33.9 35.7
2025E 2400.4 827.9 358.0 54.06 36.3 36.2
Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Refining estimates post Q2 results

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Positive non-core assets divestment

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Bigger scale, stronger profitability

Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Yamana transaction fully approved

Macro Pyrite mineral_pan american

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Shareholders approve Yamana transaction

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Proxy advisors support Yamana vote

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Yamana bid overshadows Q322 results

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Significant resources upgrade at Skarn

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Mixed Q2 results, Escobal progress

Flash note

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Positive drill results at La Colorada Skarn

Update

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Q122 results – good cost control

Initiation

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Lean, mean silver machine