Pan American Silver is one of the largest global primary silver producers and a sizeable gold miner with operations in North, Central and South America since 1994. It owns 11 producing operations, the currently suspended top tier Escobal silver mine and a number of large-scale advanced exploration/development projects.
Despite a recent healthy rebound in the share price, we believe there could be further upside if commodity prices remain at elevated levels and PAAS continues to deliver on its cost and production guidance throughout 2024.
Metals & Mining |
Flash note
Metals & Mining |
Update
Metals & Mining |
Flash note
Metals & Mining |
Update
Guido Mastropietro
Director, finance
Siren Fisekci
VP, investor relations and corporate communic
Forecast net debt (US$m)
44.8
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
1
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | (4.4) | 44.5 | 37.3 |
Relative | (7.4) | 37.3 | 8.5 |
52 week high/low | US$22.6/US$12.2 |
The key takeaways from Pan American’s (PAAS’s) investor day on 18 June are as follows. The recent government changes in Guatemala caused a delay in the ILO 169 consultation process at Escobal. PAAS awaits reappointment of the vice minister of sustainable development, expected in July, to restart the process and re-establish the timeline. At La Colorada, PAAS is working towards resolving the well-publicised ventilation issues and is on track to commission new ventilation fans in July. The ongoing optimisation programme at Jacobina is considering a change in mining method to paste backfill that will potentially enable PAAS to develop deeper parts of the project’s resources and reduce costs. At Skarn, PAAS has been in early discussions with various potential development partners. However, the current focus remains on advancing the project to the PFS, or updated PEA, stage which will determine the mining method and the project’s economics.
Y/E Dec | Revenue (US$m) | EBITDA (US$m) | PBT (US$m) | EPS (fd) (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 1494.7 | 272.0 | (73.0) | (54.06) | N/A | N/A |
2023A | 2316.1 | 680.6 | 108.4 | 19.45 | 100.8 | N/A |
2024E | 2743.8 | 958.6 | 374.7 | 57.80 | 33.9 | 35.7 |
2025E | 2400.4 | 827.9 | 358.0 | 54.06 | 36.3 | 36.2 |