Verve is an advertising software platform helping advertisers efficiently acquire customers across different media channels, as well as enabling publishers to efficiently and optimally monetise advertising space.
Q124 ad impressions were 20% up on Q123, in the inherently weakest quarter. CPM pricing has not yet significantly bounced back, particularly at the commodity end of the market where there is little, if any, targeting. This highlights the importance of solutions offering advertisers the benefits of targeting (right people, right places, right time) without compromising user privacy. While the final Google cookie deprecation is delayed again, this time out to 2025, awareness is now finally building and budgets are starting to shift.
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Update
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Flash note
Paul Echt
FD
Remco Westerman
Executive Chairman
Forecast net debt (€m)
369.1
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
96
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | 11.1 | 17.3 | 90.7 |
Relative | 14.4 | 18.8 | 66.1 |
52 week high/low | €1.9/€0.8 |
Verve (formerly MGI – Media and Games Invest) has announced the acquisition of Jun Group for €170m (US$185m), part funded by a €40m directed share issuance. Jun is an excellent fit and scales up Verve’s demand side (ie serving advertisers and agencies) to 30% of the group. It is being sold by Nasdaq-listed Advantage Solutions, which is reducing its leverage by selling its non-core operations. It sought a speedy transaction, hence the attractive deal pricing of 3.8x EV/EBITDA. Synergies built into raised guidance come from revenue opportunities rather than cost deduplication. Given Jun’s EBITDA margins of over 50%, Verve’s margins should rise, with EPS further boosted by lower interest as a percentage of revenue. The current rating does not, in our view, reflect the group’s strong position.
Y/E Dec | Revenue (€m) | EBITDA (€m) | PBT (€m) | EPS (fd) (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 324.4 | 84.8 | 38.6 | 12.01 | 15.1 | N/A |
2023A | 322.0 | 128.5 | 26.8 | 32.08 | 5.7 | 6.3 |
2024E | 390.0 | 114.9 | 44.8 | 16.59 | 11.0 | 15.8 |
2025E | 480.0 | 167.9 | 107.6 | 35.50 | 5.1 | 5.4 |