EQS Group — Grasping the whistleblowing opportunity

EQS Group (SCALE: EQS)

Last close As at 22/11/2024

40.80

−0.40 (−0.97%)

Market capitalisation

409m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

EQS Group — Grasping the whistleblowing opportunity

EQS has built a strong platform business in corporate compliance and investor relations, with growing recurring revenues. It is well positioned to capitalise on the time-limited expansion opportunity presented by the European Whistleblowing Directive, which has an implementation deadline of December 2021. Achieving a strong foothold here will be key for driving greater SaaS customer acquisition, underpinning management’s ambitious medium-term revenue and margin guidance.

Fiona Orford-Williams

Written by

Fiona Orford-Williams

Director, TMT

TMT

EQS

Grasping the whistleblowing opportunity

Software & Computer Services

Deutsches Eigenkapitalforum 2021

21 October 2021

Price

€38.2

Market cap

€324m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

EQS

Shares in issue

8.47m

Net debt at 30 June 2021

€5.4m

Business description

EQS Group is a leading international provider of regulatory technology in the fields of corporate compliance and investor relations. Its products enable corporate clients to fulfil complex national and international disclosure obligations, minimise risks and communicate transparently with stakeholders.

Bull

Scalable platform.

Opportunity to extend client base through Whistleblowing tool.

Rising proportion of recurring revenues.

Bear

Short-term cost of scaling sales effort.

Some macro sensitivity.

Dividend payment on hold.

Analyst

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

EQS Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

EQS has built a strong platform business in corporate compliance and investor relations, with growing recurring revenues. It is well positioned to capitalise on the time-limited expansion opportunity presented by the European Whistleblowing Directive, which has an implementation deadline of December 2021. Achieving a strong foothold here will be key for driving greater SaaS customer acquisition, underpinning management’s ambitious medium-term revenue and margin guidance.

Solutions for the fast-growing compliance market

EQS is in a good position to build out its customer base and its recurring revenues in both its activities of corporate compliance and investor relations, but it is the compliance area that should provide the more dynamic growth profile. The core investment in the cloud-based platform is already made, allowing for additional modules to be bolted on and cross-sold. Management is targeting group revenue of c €130m by FY25, with an EBITDA margin of 30%, with Compliance revenues comprising around 75% of group. Achieving these ambitious targets requires the group to exploit the full potential of recent acquisitions and to take maximum advantage of the current window of opportunity.

Whistleblowing to drive H221 growth

The European Whistleblowing Directive’s implementation deadline of December 2021 presents a clear opportunity to greatly enlarge EQS’s customer base. July’s acquisition of Business Keeper, the German market leader for whistleblowing systems, has already helped accelerate the effort, lifting the number of new SaaS customers from 266 in May to 445 at end-July. Management’s FY21 guidance for new SaaS customers was raised at the interim results to a range of 1,750–2,250 (previously 1,500–2,000), New ARR for FY21 is expected to be €9m (was €6m), with revenue growth of 30–40% anticipated. EBITDA and margins are expected to remain suppressed in FY21 due to whistleblowing-related higher marketing costs.

Valuation: Discount to global peers

The shares have retreated from the highs seen in late-August, post the interim results, and are now trading around the levels seen earlier in the summer. With profitability subdued by the additional costs of addressing the short-term opportunity, comparative earnings metrics are of limited relevance currently. On EV/Sales, taken across FY20–22e to smooth out pandemic impact, EQS continues to trade at a significant discount to its basket of international software peers, on average at a discount of 43%.

Edison estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

PBT
(€m)

EPS
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

35.4

(0.3)

(7.4)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/20

37.6

0.4

4.1

0.0

931.7

N/A

12/21e

49.4

(2.7)

(21.2)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/22e

70.0

1.0

7.7

0.0

496.1

N/A

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by EQS Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by EQS Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by EQS Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by EQS Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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