BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust — Improving fundamentals, undemanding valuations

Investment Companies

BlackRock Latin American IT

Improving fundamentals, undemanding valuations

Investment trusts
Latin American equities

25 October 2021

Price		318.0p
Market cap		£125m
AUM		£152m

NAV*		360.5p
Discount to NAV		11.8%
*Including income. As at 21 October 2021.
Yield		6.6%
Ordinary shares in issue		39.3m
Code/ISIN		BRLA/GB0005058408
Primary exchange		LSE
AIC sector	Latin America
52-week high/low	415.0p		297.0p
NAV* high/low	461.7p		326.2p
*Including income
Net gearing*	5.7%
*As at 30 September 2021
Fund objective
BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust seeks long-term capital growth and an attractive total return, primarily through investing in quoted Latin American securities. The trust was launched in 1990 and management was transferred to BlackRock on 31 March 2006 following a tender process. The managers follow a mainly bottom-up approach (taking top-down views into account) that is flexible but seeks growth at a reasonable price. The trust has an indefinite life subject to a two-yearly continuation vote. The benchmark is the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index.
Bull points
■ Diversified Latin American equity exposure from a fund run by two very experienced managers. ■ Defined dividend policy and attractive yield. ■ Latin America is attractively valued compared with other regions and its own history.
Bear points
■ Higher political and currency risk in Latin America than in developed economies. ■ Latin American equity market can be volatile. ■ Latin America is less well researched compared with developed markets.

Analysts

Mel Jenner	+44 (0)20 3077 5720
Sarah Godfrey	+44 (0)20 3681 2519
investmenttrusts@edisongroup.com
Edison profile page BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust (BRLA) has two experienced managers, Sam Vecht and Ed Kuczma. They comment that Latin America is attractively valued both versus its history and compared with other regions. Within emerging markets, due to regulatory pressures there has been some rotation away from Asian technology companies whose shares have been favoured by investors over the last five to 10 years and have crowded out Latin American equities in emerging market indices. Vecht and Kuczma say that Latin America is benefiting from strong raw material prices and a robust economic recovery following the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. Due to political risk, the managers have flattened the country risk within BRLA’s portfolio, and are focused on seeking high-quality, reasonably priced companies that have above-average earnings growth.

NAV versus the benchmark over three years to end-September 2021 – recent underperformance is due to stock selection

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research

The analyst’s view

Latin America is now a small part of the MSCI Emerging Market Index (c 8% versus c 24% in 2004); hence, if there are further concerns about China, Latin America could benefit from higher emerging market investor demand. BRLA offers a broad, actively managed exposure to the region, and the managers are not constrained by benchmark weightings. Company fundamentals within Latin America are improving as the COVID-19 vaccine rollout gains momentum and commodity prices are elevated, helped by a robust US housing market and infrastructure spending, while in general, valuations in the region remain modest. The MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index is trading on a c 9x forward P/E multiple compared with c 13x for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Global companies are diversifying their supply chains away from China, and Latin America is a beneficiary of this trend.

Discount broadly in line with historical averages

BRLA is currently trading at an 11.8% share price discount to cum-income NAV versus a 5.3% to 14.4% range of discounts over the last 12 months. Over the last one, three, five and 10 years, the trust’s average discounts are 10.1%, 11.2%, 12.2% and 11.2% respectively. BRLA offers an attractive 6.6% dividend yield, which is based on 1.25% of the trust’s quarterly NAV.

The fund managers: Ed Kuczma and Sam Vecht

The manager’s view: Attractively valued opportunities in LA

Kuczma explains that BRLA has a higher-than-average level of gearing as he has been finding attractively valued investment opportunities within the Latin American region. The manager highlights Brazil, which is by far the largest geographic weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index and is trading on a forward P/E multiple of c 9x rather than the historical average of c 12x. Mexico is the largest overweight within the fund (+2.8pp versus the benchmark) as Kuczma believes that within Latin America, this country has the most political clarity over the next three years. In June 2021, there were concerns around a Mexican mid-term presidential election, but the lack of a clear majority means there will not be a change in the constitution; changes tend to be unfriendly to business. The manager notes that Chile on the other hand is in the process of rewriting its constitution and there will be a presidential election later this year; Peru had a tightly fought presidential election in June 2021, which the left-wing candidate won; while Brazil has a presidential election in 2022. Hence Kuczma says, ‘there is a high level of political uncertainty in the region’.

The manager has been adding to BRLA’s Brazilian exposure. While some commodity prices have rolled over, they remain at elevated levels, providing a positive economic tailwind for the country. Also, as noted above, political risk in Brazil has led to attractive equity valuations. There has been an acceleration in the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in Latin America and the number of new cases is rolling over, which is supportive for economic activity. Kuczma reports that Latin American Q221 corporate earnings releases were generally positive, especially for material and energy companies, with strong revenue growth and high-quality firms taking share, although there is some pressure on profit margins due to supply disruptions.

‘With a resumption in economic growth it can be very difficult to contain inflation’ says the manager. Higher inflation is prevalent in Brazil, hence the central bank has been hiking interest rates; inflation expectations are being revised up and are now at a high single-digit rate, which along with higher rates has a negative effect on consumption. Kuczma notes that the shares of interest rate-sensitive businesses including toll roads and real estate have underperformed recently. He is focusing on quality companies with good brands and pricing power that can pass on higher costs, noting that in general ‘healthcare and technology stocks fit the bill’. The manager has a structurally long-term bullish outlook on these two sectors, which combined make up just around 5% of the index. For healthcare and technology businesses, labour is the main input cost and unemployment is high, so there is a lack of wage pressure. Kuczma says that high-quality management teams in these sectors are employing the best developed market practices and adapting them for Latin America. He suggests that digital transformation is helping to improve businesses across a wide range of industries, believing that ‘COVID-19 has accelerated the adoption of digital products and services by three to five years’.

The manager provides updates on what he refers to as the ‘four Cs’:

■

Commodities – Latin America is resource rich and a low-cost producer. Kuczma retains a positive outlook for commodities, including cement, lithium and copper, where producers are benefiting from an excess of demand versus supply, helped by increased digitisation.

■

Consumption – the manager comments that remittances into Mexico from out-of-country workers are very strong, helped by stimulus pay cheques in the United States, and suggests that Chilean consumption is ‘super strong’, helped by the ability of people to make early pension withdrawals. He also points to the structural growth in e-commerce within Latin America.

■

Credit – Kuczma says that Latin American banks overprovisioned for higher loan losses, which did not materialise to the level expected. However, they are largely taking a conservative approach, saving the provisions for a rainy day, as non-performing loans may have troughed, although some capital is being returned to shareholders.

■

Currencies – the manager says that the Peruvian sol became oversold on political uncertainty, especially given the country benefits from elevated copper prices. He is positive on the outlook for the Mexican peso given higher interest rates and greater policy certainty. Kuczma comments that ‘Mexico has been one of the most austere countries in terms of COVID-19 stimulus; it has a credible government that has not taken on a lot of debt’. He is more cautious on the Brazilian real given the country’s large pandemic stimulus programme adding to its already heavy debt load, along with political uncertainty.

Current portfolio positioning

At end-September 2021, BRLA’s top 10 positions made up 46.5% of the fund, which was less than 49.9% a year earlier; seven positions were common to both periods. A notable active weight in this list is a 2.2pp underweight position in Vale.

Exhibit 2: Top 10 holdings (as at 30 September 2021)

Company	Country	Sector	Portfolio weight %		Benchmark weight (%)	Active weight vs benchmark (pp)
Company	Country	Sector	30 Sept 2021	30 Sept 2020*		Active weight vs benchmark (pp)
Vale - ADS	Brazil	Materials	7.4	8.2	9.6	(2.2)
Petrobras - ADR**	Brazil	Energy	6.5	7.4	7.4	(0.9)
Banco Bradesco - ADR	Brazil	Banks	5.4	6.1	4.1	1.3
América Móvil - ADR	Mexico	Telecom services	5.0	5.7	5.3	(0.3)
Grupo Financiero Banorte	Mexico	Banks	4.3	3.3	3.0	1.3
Walmart de México y Centroamérica	Mexico	General retailing	4.1	4.0	3.0	1.1
B3	Brazil	Diversified financials	4.1	4.6	2.5	1.6
Cemex - ADR	Mexico	Materials	3.7	N/A	1.9	1.8
Notre Dame Intermédica	Brazil	Healthcare	3.1	N/A	1.2	1.9
Credicorp	Peru	Diversified financials	2.9	N/A	1.3	1.6
Top 10 (% of holdings)			46.5	49.9

Source: BlackRock Latin American IT, Edison Investment Research. Note: *N/A where not in end-September 2020 top 10. **Equity and preference shares.

As a reminder, stocks are selected on a bottom-up basis. Over the 12 months to the end of September 2021 the largest changes in BRLA’s geographic exposure were a 3.8pp lower weighting in Brazil (although as noted earlier in this report the manager has recently been adding exposure to this country) and a 2.9pp higher weighting in Peru. In terms of positioning, the fund is underweight Brazil (-4.7pp) and Colombia (-2.0), with overweight exposures to Mexico (+2.8pp), Panama (+1.8pp) and Chile (+1.2pp).

Exhibit 3: Portfolio geographic exposure vs MSCI EM Latin America Index (% unless stated)

	Portfolio end- Sept 2021	Portfolio end- Sept 2020	Change (pp)	Index weight	Active weight vs index (pp)	Trust weight/ index weight (x)
Brazil	58.3	62.1	(3.8)	63.0	(4.7)	0.9
Mexico	27.6	26.7	0.9	24.8	2.8	1.1
Chile	6.9	7.7	(0.8)	5.7	1.2	1.2
Peru	2.9	0.0	2.9	2.2	0.7	1.3
Argentina	2.5	3.5	(1.0)	2.3	0.2	1.1
Panama	1.8	0.0	1.8	0.0	1.8	0.0
Colombia	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	(2.0)	0.0
	100.0	100.0		100.0

Source: BlackRock Latin American IT, Edison Investment Research

In terms of the trust’s sector exposure, in the 12 months to the end of September 2021, there is a notable 10.9pp lower weighting to consumer discretionary along with reduced exposures to utilities (-3.2pp) and materials (-3.0pp). The largest increases are consumer staples (+5.9pp), healthcare (+4.0pp), technology (+3.7pp) and financials (+3.2pp). Versus the index, the largest overweight positions are real estate (+3.0pp) and healthcare (+2.9pp), while the largest underweights are materials (-3.9pp) and energy (-2.8pp).

Exhibit 4: Portfolio sector exposure vs MSCI EM Latin America Index (% unless stated)

	Portfolio end- Sept 2021	Portfolio end- Sept 2020	Change (pp)	Index weight	Active weight vs index (pp)	Trust weight/ index weight (x)
Financials	23.5	20.3	3.2	23.1	0.4	1.0
Materials	19.8	22.8	(3.0)	23.7	(3.9)	0.8
Consumer staples	14.2	8.3	5.9	15.2	(1.0)	0.9
Communication services	7.2	5.7	1.5	7.5	(0.3)	1.0
Consumer discretionary	7.0	17.9	(10.9)	5.3	1.7	1.3
Industrials	6.8	7.0	(0.2)	5.8	1.0	1.2
Energy	6.5	7.4	(0.9)	9.3	(2.8)	0.7
Healthcare	5.5	1.5	4.0	2.6	2.9	2.1
Information technology	3.7	0.0	3.7	2.6	1.1	1.4
Real estate	3.6	3.7	(0.1)	0.6	3.0	6.0
Utilities	2.2	5.4	(3.2)	4.3	(2.1)	0.5
	100.0	100.0		100.0

Source: BlackRock Latin American IT, Edison Investment Research

The manager explains that BRLA’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) metrics have improved in terms of its MSCI ratings. Number one position Vale is now underweight versus the benchmark due to its poor ESG rating as a result of operational accidents, while exposure to companies with higher ESG ratings has been increased, such as a Brazilian cosmetic company whose inputs come from sustainable sources. Kuczma reports that overall, BRLA has higher ratings than the benchmark in all three ESG categories, with seven out of 11 sectors scoring better than the index. He highlights materials as being an area of concern, where the trust’s ESG score is below that of the benchmark, although it does invest in lithium companies, which have better scores than producers of some other commodities.

Kuczma highlights that there has been a significant number of initial public offerings (IPOs) in Brazil this year during a period of high levels of liquidity in global equity markets. He says that this is positive for the breadth and depth of the Brazilian stock market, providing fund managers with more choice, and suggests it is a sign that the market is maturing. However, Kuczma says it remains important to be selective about which offerings to participate in. Below are the manager’s comments about BRLA’s new holdings and completed disposals in recent months.

Purchases:

■

FEMSA is a Mexican multinational beverage and retail company. It operates the biggest independent Coca-Cola bottling group in the world and the largest convenience store chain in Mexico. FEMSA is seen as a beneficiary of economies reopening and the manager expects a strong recovery in its same store sales and an increase in its average store ticket, in part due to food price inflation (convenience store customers are generally not price sensitive).

■

Credicorp is a Peruvian financial services company. Kuczma says that several negativities were priced into the company’s shares; at the time of purchase, they were trading on the lowest price-to-book in the last 15 years. The manager says that Credicorp provides a good way to play Peruvian political risk, which he believes had overshot to the downside. The company’s earnings recovery is coming through stronger than expected due to prior overprovisioning and a resumption in lending, and its return on equity has recovered from a low single digits to a mid-teens level.

■

Neoenergia is a Brazilian energy services company. Energy prices are rising in Brazil exacerbated by a drought, and while distributors have to take higher prices on the chin, generators like Neoenergia are beneficiaries. The manager says its shares were inexpensive and he rates the company’s management team highly, as it has a good track record and has recently undertaken a value-adding acquisition.

■

Copa Holdings is a Panamanian airline that is benefiting from economies reopening. Kuczma says the company has one of the most robust balance sheets in the industry, has weathered the pandemic storm well and in his view should emerge from the crisis in an even stronger position. Copa serves many thinly covered routes in Latin America, which means the company can charge premium prices. While travel is now recovering, it is currently biased towards vacation rather than higher-margin business trips, but Copa is benefiting from the collapse of some of its competitors and is taking market share.

■

Smartfit (a July 2021 IPO) is a Brazilian fitness services company. The manager explains that gym membership in Latin America is underpenetrated and there is a lack of competition, while spending on healthcare services in the region is relatively low compared with developed markets. Smartfit is gaining share in a fast-growing market; Kuczma says there is plenty of potential for unit growth and industry consolidation and there is pent-up demand in the region due to the pandemic.

Sales:

■

Televisa is a Mexican media company. Its share price performed well following the merger with US-based Univision, which has formed the largest worldwide broadcaster of Spanish content and increased the size of Televisa’s streaming operations. Its shares reached the manager’s fair value target, so the position was sold.

■

PagSeguro Digital is a Brazilian company that primarily offers payment processing software for e-commerce websites, mobile applications, and point of sale terminals. While there are some barriers to entry, PagSeguro operates in a competitive business that has a number of new entrants. Hence Kuczma sold the position due to concerns about pricing pressure.

■

Santos Brazil is a port operator whose São Paulo contract was up for renegotiation. This sweetheart deal with its main customer was renegotiated at a higher price – Santo’s shares rallied on the news and reached Kuczma’s price target.

■

Banco de Chile due to political uncertainty.

Performance: NAV broadly in line with index over 3y

Exhibit 5: Five-year discrete performance data

12 months ending	Share price (%)	NAV (%)	MSCI EM Latin America (%)	CBOE UK All Companies (%)	MSCI World (%)
30/09/17	23.9	22.4	22.0	12.0	15.0
30/09/18	(12.4)	(8.7)	(6.1)	5.9	15.1
30/09/19	19.5	13.5	13.3	2.7	8.4
30/09/20	(29.4)	(32.1)	(32.4)	(17.9)	5.8
30/09/21	18.5	21.0	22.4	28.5	24.1

Source: Refinitiv. Note: All % on a total return basis in pounds sterling.

Exhibit 6: Investment trust performance to 30 September 2021
Price, NAV and benchmark total return performance, one-year rebased	Price, NAV and benchmark total return performance (%)

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Three-, five- and 10-year performance figures annualised.

Exhibit 7 shows BRLA’s relative total returns; its NAV is broadly in line with the benchmark over the last three years, while its share price has outperformed over the last three and five years. Discussing recent performance attribution, which has been disappointing over the last year, the manager comments that Brazilian stock selection has detracted from the trust’s performance. He explains that one source of political risk in the country is that when President Bolsonaro’s popularity declines, he tries to appease voters. As a result, Petrobras has been a target for political interference in terms of its pricing policy; BRLA had an overweight position in the first half of 2021, which was detrimental to the trust’s performance, but the weighting is now lower compared with the benchmark. Kuczma says that the materials sector has been a positive driver including positions in Cemex (Mexico – building materials), Ternium (Argentina – steel) and Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (chemicals). The fund’s Mexican exposure has been a positive contributor to performance in terms of both stock selection and top-down positioning.

Exhibit 7: Share price and NAV total return performance, relative to index (%)

	One month	Three months	Six months	One year	Three years	Five years	10 years
Price relative to MSCI EM Latin America	1.6	(3.4)	(5.1)	(3.2)	6.7	1.0	(3.8)
NAV relative to MSCI EM Latin America	(0.3)	(2.0)	(3.3)	(1.1)	(0.4)	(2.8)	(1.3)

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Data to end-September 2021. Geometric calculation.

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This report has been commissioned by BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

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General disclaimer and copyright

Australia

New Zealand

United Kingdom

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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