IQE — Supply chain issues intensify

IQE (LN: IQE)

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33.10

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Research: TMT

IQE — Supply chain issues intensify

IQE has cut its FY19 revenue and profit guidance in response to reduced demand from wireless customers and an internal issue affecting a major photonics (not VCSEL – vertical cavity surface emitting laser) customer. Following a 25% share price fall, the shares are trading within the range created by photonics peers on most metrics.

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TMT

IQE

Supply chain issues intensify

Trading update

Tech hardware & equipment

24 June 2019

Price

53.3p

Market cap

£422m

Net cash (£m) at end December 2018

20.8

Shares in issue

790.8m

Free float

86.3%

Code

IQE

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(26.7)

(25.8)

(47.8)

Rel (local)

(27.3)

(26.3)

(46.3)

52-week high/low

112.5p

53.9p

Business description

IQE is the leading supplier of epitaxial compound semiconductor wafers globally. The principal applications include radio frequency semiconductors, devices for optical networks, vertical cavity lasers, infrared semiconductors and power electronics.

Next event

Interims

September 2019

Analysts

Anne Margaret Crow

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

IQE is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

IQE has cut its FY19 revenue and profit guidance in response to reduced demand from wireless customers and an internal issue affecting a major photonics (not VCSEL - vertical cavity surface emitting laser) customer. Following a 25% share price fall, the shares are trading within the range created by photonics peers on most metrics.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17**

154.5

24.5

3.38

0.0

15.8

N/A

12/18

156.3

14.0

1.38

0.0

38.6

N/A

12/19e

147.2

5.4

0.52

0.0

101.8

N/A

12/20e

179.0

24.5

2.41

0.0

22.1

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Restated

Customers cutting delivery forecasts

IQE’s customers manufacturing wireless semiconductor chips for the mobile phone industry are cutting back inventory levels in response to the uncertainty regarding future demand caused by lengthening mobile phone replacement cycles. This caution is exacerbated by the impact of Huawei’s addition to the US Bureau of Industry and Security’s Entity List. IQE’s initial assessment of this was focused on customers directly involved in the Huawei supply chain, but the interconnected nature of the semiconductor supply chain means many more of IQE’s customers have been affected indirectly. In addition, a major photonics customer purchasing indium phosphide (InP) epitaxy for laser chips has internal issues. Overall, the company guides FY19 revenue in the £140–160m range at an adjusted operating margin significantly below previously guided 10%.

Long-term prospects sound

IQE’s dominant position in the outsourced compound semiconductor epitaxy market means it has supply relationships with multiple non-US (and US) customers. It is therefore relatively agnostic to any mid- to long-term shifts in market share at either component or OEM level. For example, it is engaged in initial production activities with two Asian customers who stand to benefit from wireless supply chain shifts. On the photonics side, management expects to start mass production for two additional VCSEL customers in H219, with a further 13 customers at the sampling stage. In addition, IQE is engaging with multiple Asian chip companies on 10G and 25G lasers for data comms. These new business opportunities should mitigate the lack of business from the InP laser chip customer in the medium term.

Valuation: Waiting for destocking to complete

If we restrict our peer-based comparison to the three listed companies offering epitaxy for VCSELs then IQE is trading within the valuation range for these stocks on most metrics. IQE has a much stronger market position than the other three, so trading towards the upper end of this smaller sample seems reasonable. Taking this approach, we see scope for share price recovery once semiconductor supply chains have stabilised and the current period of destocking is over.

Changes to estimates

We revise our estimates to reflect:

Change in FY19 wireless revenue guidance from a year-on-year decline of 15% to 20–25% (modelling 22.5%).

Change in FY19 photonics guidance from over 50% growth year-on-year to less than 30% (modelling 25%).

Change in FY19 adjusted operating margin guidance from over 10% to ‘significantly below’ that (currently modelling 5%).

Comment by management on analyst call that it expects net debt at end FY19 to be c £15m at the middle of the revenue guidance range, while remaining within the limits of its revolving credit facility.

Management has not updated its guidance for FY20 or mid-term growth, as this would be premature before the wireless market has stabilised and there is better visibility of the number and scale of new VCSEL ramp-ups. VCSEL-driven photonics growth should help offset the impact of reduced mobile phone shipments on wireless revenues, as will the transition to 5G, with greater wireless content per device. We model 10% year-on-year growth in FY20 wireless revenues, which assumes the period of destocking is over and the market has stabilised by the end of FY19. This gives FY20 segmental revenues of £83.4m, which is slightly higher than the FY15 level (£79.5m) when demand was also affected by de-stocking and substantially lower than FY16, FY17 or FY18, all of which recorded revenues above £90m. We continue to model 40% year-on-year growth in photonics, albeit from a lower level, partly because of the number of VCSEL projects sampling and partly because IQE is likely to win some new business with alternative suppliers of indium phosphide lasers because of its technical expertise.

We have not changed our capitalised R&D or PP&E estimates as the bulk of this is associated with new VCSEL ramp-ups, which are not affected by the recent announcement.

Exhibit 1: Changes to estimates

FY18

FY19e

FY20e

Actual

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

Revenue (£m)

156.3

169.9

147.2

-13.3%

204.3

179.0

-12.4%

EBITDA (£m)

28.4

37.5

22.5

-40.0%

55.7

42.9

-23.1%

Adjusted PBT (£m)

14.0

20.4

5.4

-73.4%

37.4

24.5

-34.5%

Adjusted EPS (p)

1.38

2.04

0.52

-74.3%

3.74

2.41

-35.6%

Capitalised R&D

12.0

13.0

13.0

0.0%

13.0

13.0

0.0%

PPE

30.4

40.0

40.0

0.0%

15.0

15.0

0.0%

Net cash/(debt)

20.8

0.1

(14.7)

N/A

13.9

(8.7)

N/A

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation

We moved from a peer-based multiple approach to a DCF analysis in November 2018 because of the volatility of stocks in the sector. Although the DCF remains our preferred approach, this was based on the three- to five-year guidance management provided, which will not be updated until the current supply chain turmoil has abated, so we for now revert to using peer-based multiples.

The share price has declined by over 25% since the trading update and is now trading on 53.25p/share. Based on our revised estimates, the shares are trading on prospective EV/sales ratios that are at a discount to the mean for its epitaxy and opto-electronics peers, but on prospective EV/EBITDA and P/E ratios that are at a premium to the mean. If we restrict the comparison to the three listed companies offering epitaxy for VCSELs: IntelliEPI, LandMark Optoelectronics and Visual Photonics, then IQE is trading within the range for these three stocks on most valuation metrics. IQE has a much stronger market position than the other three, so trading towards the upper end of this smaller sample seems reasonable. Taking this approach, we see scope for share price recovery once semiconductor supply chains have stabilised and the current period of destocking is over.

Exhibit 2: Peer multiple analysis

Name

Market cap
($m)

EV/Sales
FY1 (x)

EV/Sales
FY2 (x)

EV/EBITDA FY1 (x)

EV/EBITDA FY2 (x)

P/E
FY1 (x)

P/E
FY2 (x)

Epitaxy

GCS Holdings Inc

157

1.7

-

-

-

19.4

-

IntelliEPI Inc (Cayman)

71

2.7

2.4

18.6

-

25.3

18.6

LandMark Optoelectronics Corp

707

7.8

6.1

14.6

11.2

29.6

20.5

Soitec

3,279

5.0

4.1

16.9

13.3

28.1

21.4

Visual Photonics Epitaxy Co

455

6.1

4.8

16.7

12.9

31.2

22.3

WIN Semiconductors Corp

2,709

4.7

4.0

12.3

9.7

29.8

21.0

Opto-electronics

II-VI Inc

2,229

1.9

1.7

10.9

9.1

13.7

11.8

EMCORE Corp

94

0.5

0.4

-

10.2

-

-

Finisar Corp

2,700

1.7

1.6

8.9

8.0

18.4

15.8

Lumentum Holdings Inc

3,797

2.5

2.2

9.1

6.9

12.0

10.6

Mean Epitaxy and Opto-electronics

3.5

3.0

13.5

5.9

23.1

17.8

VCSEL mean*

5.5

4.4

16.7

12.1

28.7

20.5

IQE

$535m

3.0

2.4

19.4

10.2

101.8

22.1

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Mean is based on IntelliEPI, LandMark Optoelectronics and Visual Photonics. Prices at 21 June 2019.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£'000s

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year End 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

restated

Revenue

 

 

154,553

156,291

147,213

178,957

Cost of Sales (Inc D&A + SBP)

(115,857)

(111,748)

(103,785)

(126,165)

Gross Profit

38,696

44,543

43,428

52,792

EBITDA

 

 

37,130

28,404

22,510

42,868

Depreciation and Amortisation

(10,596)

(12,364)

(15,081)

(18,381)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

26,534

16,040

7,429

24,487

Acquired Intangible Amortisation

(1,429)

(518)

(518)

(518)

Exceptionals

(385)

(7,906)

0

0

Share based payments

(7,526)

1,044

0

0

Operating Profit

17,194

8,660

6,911

23,969

Underlying interest

(2,019)

(66)

0

0

Exceptionals and losses from JVs

80

(1,847)

(2,000)

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

24,515

13,974

5,429

24,487

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

15,095

6,747

4,911

23,969

Reported tax

(435)

(5,558)

(884)

(4,314)

Profit After Tax (norm)

24,998

11,229

4,545

20,172

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

14,660

1,189

4,027

19,654

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

689.5

761.8

788.5

790.8

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

3.38

1.38

0.52

2.41

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

2.11

0.13

0.48

2.46

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

224,836

267,476

304,877

313,977

Intangible Assets

108,513

121,775

127,467

131,860

Tangible Assets

90,875

124,520

156,228

160,937

Other

25,448

21,181

21,181

21,181

Current Assets

 

 

111,925

94,531

55,668

75,600

Stocks

33,044

35,709

34,000

40,694

Debtors

33,269

38,015

36,380

43,636

Cash

45,612

20,807

(14,711)

(8,731)

Other

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(44,916)

(48,893)

(43,721)

(50,184)

Creditors

(44,916)

(48,893)

(43,721)

(50,184)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(666)

(3,836)

(3,836)

(3,836)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(666)

(3,836)

(3,836)

(3,836)

Net Assets

 

 

291,179

309,278

312,989

335,557

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

29,717

16,988

18,682

35,380

Net Interest

(2,125)

(66)

0

0

Tax

(5,844)

(665)

(1,200)

(1,400)

Capex

(28,190)

(42,362)

(53,000)

(28,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

Financing

94,912

813

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

88,470

(25,292)

(35,518)

5,980

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

39,549

(45,612)

(20,807)

14,711

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

(3,309)

487

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(45,612)

(20,807)

14,711

8,731

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by IQE and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by IQE. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (‘FTSE’) © FTSE 2019. ‘FTSE®’ is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are ‘wholesale clients’ for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a ‘personalised service’ and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a ‘class service’ provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the ‘FPO’) (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by IQE and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by IQE. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (‘FTSE’) © FTSE 2019. ‘FTSE®’ is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for ‘wholesale clients’ within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are ‘wholesale clients’ for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a ‘personalised service’ and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a ‘class service’ provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the ‘FPO’) (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the ‘publishers' exclusion’ from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Sunesis Pharmaceuticals — EHA data released

Sunesis provided an update at the European Hematology Association (EHA) meeting on its ongoing Phase Ib/II study of vecabrutinib in patients with B-cell malignancies, providing detailed data on the first three cohorts (25mg, 50mg and 100mg). The data were consistent with previous reports: no safety red flags were observed, and there were indications of activity. The data did not show partial responses or better at the current dose, but four patients (of 20) demonstrated stable disease, including three out of five evaluable CLL patients with C481S mutations.

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