China: Expected to grow c 5% despite macro headwinds
China’s economy continues to face headwinds from a weak (though stabilising) property
market and subdued consumer sentiment, resulting in deflationary pressures, with China’s
CPI up a mere 0.1% year-on-year and the producer price index (PPI) down 2.3% year-on-year
in December 2024. The country’s exports, one of the few stronger parts of its economy,
may soon feel the strain of the looming trade tensions with the US and Europe, such
as export controls on semiconductors and import tariffs, which are likely to intensify
under Donald Trump’s US administration. Donald Trump recently declared that he is considering the introduction of 10% tariffs
on imported Chinese products (though much less than the 60% tariffs he mentioned in the campaign
trail). Chinese companies seek to offset these headwinds, at least partly, via increased
penetration of emerging markets, including the global south, as well as expanding
their production footprints geographically. However, Chinese companies’ operations in countries such as Mexico could also suffer from new US tariffs and there is a risk that Chinese officials will curb the latter to retain the incremental fixed
investments and employment domestically. The Chinese government also intends to introduce
some countermeasures, such as export restrictions on certain technology used to make
battery components and for processing critical minerals such as lithium and gallium.
Further long-term risk factors are the demographic decline and China’s stance towards
Taiwan. That said, Chinese officials claim that China’s GDP growth in 2024 was in
line with its target of 5%, which will be maintained for 2025. The IMF expects China
to narrowly miss this level, albeit with still robust 4.8% growth in 2025.
Significant fiscal and monetary measures to revive the economy
In September 2024, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut its reserve requirement ratio
by 50bp, which will release RMB1tn of liquidity into the banking system to improve
the latter’s lending capacity. The PBOC also lowered interest rates on existing mortgage
loans by an average 50bp and reduced the minimum down payment ratio for second homes
from 25% to 15%. Finally, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate on seven-day
reverse repurchase agreements by 20bp to 1.50% in October 2024 and recently signalled
further cuts in 2025, according to the Financial Times, citing comments from the central bank. The PBOC also introduced measures to directly
support the local stock market, including a swap programme, which provides funds,
insurers and brokers with easier access to funding for stock purchases, as well as
loans to support buybacks of listed companies. These measures amounted to RMB800bn
(or c 0.6% of China’s GDP) since September, according to The Economist.
The Chinese government also announced significant fiscal stimulus, as it pledged to
significantly increase debt and widen the budget deficit to 4% of GDP to revive the
economy. Reuters reported that China plans to issue long-term special sovereign bonds
with a significant volume of around RMB3tn in 2025 for fresh fiscal stimulus, up from
RMB1tn in 2024. The proceeds will be used to boost consumption through subsidy programmes
for durable goods, which is a change from the government’s previous approach of not
stimulating consumption directly (China has a relatively low level of household spending
to GDP). The proceeds will also support large-scale equipment upgrades by businesses
and fund investments in innovation-driven advanced sectors. We also note that in H124,
the government announced measures to support the troubled property sector, which involve
the purchase of unsold completed apartments from developers by local state-owned enterprises
to convert them into social affordable housing (supported by RMB300bn in cheap central
bank funding). Moreover, the government aims to address the debt burden of local governments.
Equity markets rallied initially, though have given away some gains so far in 2025
Chinese equities appreciated strongly on the back of the September announcements,
with the CSI 300 Index up c 20% in September 2024 (translating into a similar return
overall in 2024), though they have retraced partly in 2025 to date amid the inauguration
of Donald Trump and investors’ disappointment in the government’s limited success
in reviving the property sector and consumption. On the other hand, we note that,
encouraged by Chinese authorities, there has been an increased focus on the shareholder
returns of Chinese listed companies (both state-owned and private) this year, with
prominent examples including Tencent and Alibaba (which are among IAT’s top 10 holdings).
China’s officials focus on driving ‘new quality productive forces’
Notwithstanding the near-term challenges, it is worth noting that the Chinese government
aims to foster a more innovative economy in the long run, including green transition,
advanced manufacturing (electric vehicles (EV), robotics, semiconductors, clean energy),
biotech and digitalisation (which are at least partly filling in the gap left by China’s
‘old’ economy). For instance, its EV car-makers have been successful in their global
expansion, as illustrated by BYD closing in on Tesla with 1.76m EVs sold in 2024 versus
1.79m by Tesla.