Immutep — A second big pharma collaboration for efti

Immutep — A second big pharma collaboration for efti

Immutep has entered into a clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Merck/Pfizer to investigate the combination of its APC activator eftilagimod alpha (efti) with avelumab in patients with advanced solid tumours. Avelumab is the big pharma pair’s investigational anti-PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI). We view the additional validation from big pharma is as a very positive development for Immutep, which could bring the added bonus of early identification of additional target indications. We maintain our valuation at A$510m or A$0.17/share.

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Immutep

A second big pharma collaboration for efti

Merck/Pfizer collaboration

Pharma & biotech

27 September 2018

Price

A$0.048

Market cap

A$145m

US$0.76/A$

Gross cash (A$m) at 30 June 2018

23.5

Shares in issue

3,026.1m

Free float

87%

Code

IMMX

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

NASDAQ

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

41.2

60.0

128.6

Rel (local)

42.3

59.6

107.6

52-week high/low

A$0.05

A$0.02

Business description

Immutep is an ASX-listed biotech company focused on cancer immunotherapy. Its pipeline is based on four products using an LAG-3 immune control system: eftilagimod alpha for cancer chemo-immunotherapy, and partnered products IMP731 (GSK) and IMP701 (Novartis) and IMP761 (preclinical).

Next events

TACTI-mel data update including additional cohort

November

Initiate TACTI-002 Phase II

Q418

Fully recruit AIPAC breast cancer Phase II

Q418/Q119

Analysts

Dr Dennis Hulme

+61 (0)2 8249 8345

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Immutep is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Immutep has entered into a clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Merck/Pfizer to investigate the combination of its APC activator eftilagimod alpha (efti) with avelumab in patients with advanced solid tumours. Avelumab is the big pharma pair’s investigational anti-PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI). We view the additional validation from big pharma is as a very positive development for Immutep, which could bring the added bonus of early identification of additional target indications. We maintain our valuation at A$510m or A$0.17/share.

Year end

Revenue
(A$m)

PBT*
(A$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS*
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/17

4.1

(8.4)

(0.4)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/18

6.9

(10.9)

(0.5)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/19e

10.9

(6.8)

(0.2)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/20e

2.8

(14.9)

(0.5)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding exceptional items.

Additional validation from big pharma

Immutep already has an ongoing clinical trial collaboration with the US-based Merck and Company (known as MSD outside the US), which is totally separate from Merck KGaA, including the TACTI-mel and TACTI-002 studies. It now has the additional validation of having a second big pharma team review the efti data and conclude that there is a potentially meaningful benefit from efti/ICI combination therapy. The encouraging results from the first three TACTI-mel cohorts included a 33% response rate from the start of efti/Keytruda combination therapy and 61% response rate from the start of the Keytruda monotherapy screening period.

Avelumab combination to be added to INSIGHT trial

The study of avelumab plus subcutaneous (SC) efti in patients with a range of advanced solid tumours will be included as an arm of the INSIGHT study (NCT03252938), which is underway at a single site in Germany. The combination would fit neatly into INSIGHT, which already includes arms investigating intra-tumoural and intraperitoneal administration of efti, as well as a third arm investigating SC efti in combination with chemo in solid tumours. This strategy should allow the efti/avelumab combination study to start before the end of CY18.

Competitive tension a potential added bonus

Having a deep level of engagement with two big pharma companies (or three counting Pfizer) could bring the added bonus of increased competitive tension when the time comes to negotiate a partnership deal for efti.

Valuation: Unchanged at A$510m, 17c per share

Our valuation is unchanged at A$510m, 17c/share (undiluted), or 12c/share after diluting for options and convertible notes. Our valuation includes a modest allowance for expansion of efti indications beyond the ongoing studies in breast, head and neck, melanoma and lung cancers. Gross cash at 30 June was A$23.5m. We assume Immutep will receive a risk-adjusted US$6m IMP731 milestone payment from GSK in FY19, which would extend its cash reach to the end of FY20.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

A$000s

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year-end 30 June

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

1,949

4,117

6,854

10,898

2,778

R&D expenses

(7,060)

(7,526)

(9,990)

(10,990)

(10,440)

SG&A expenses

(6,983)

(4,347)

(7,242)

(7,459)

(7,683)

EBITDA

 

 

(12,093)

(7,756)

(11,435)

(7,551)

(15,345)

Operating Profit (before GW and except.)

 

(12,275)

(7,770)

(11,446)

(7,554)

(15,350)

Intangible Amortisation

(1,993)

(1,688)

(1,798)

(1,650)

(1,501)

Exceptionals

(47,468)

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(61,736)

(9,458)

(13,244)

(9,204)

(16,851)

Other

(1,716)

(752)

323

0

0

Net Interest

256

104

177

704

498

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(13,735)

(8,417)

(10,946)

(6,850)

(14,851)

Profit Before Tax (IFRS)

 

 

(63,196)

(10,105)

(12,744)

(8,500)

(16,352)

Tax

1,181

737

(2)

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(12,554)

(7,680)

(10,948)

(6,850)

(14,851)

Profit After Tax (IFRS)

(62,015)

(9,368)

(12,746)

(8,500)

(16,352)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

2,016.6

2,072.5

2,079.7

3,026.1

3,026.1

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(0.6)

(0.4)

(0.5)

(0.2)

(0.5)

EPS - IFRS (c)

 

 

(3.1)

(0.5)

(0.6)

(0.3)

(0.5)

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

20,883

19,045

18,356

16,715

15,223

Intangible Assets

20,852

19,020

18,329

16,680

15,178

Tangible Assets

32

24

26

36

45

Other

0

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

21,671

15,919

28,643

21,784

6,924

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

Debtors

168

2,194

3,432

3,432

3,432

Cash

20,880

12,237

23,476

16,616

1,756

Other

623

1,488

1,736

1,736

1,736

Current Liabilities

 

 

(1,472)

(2,632)

(3,853)

(3,853)

(3,853)

Creditors

(1,444)

(2,589)

(3,664)

(3,664)

(3,664)

Short term borrowings

(0)

(0)

0

0

0

Short term leases

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(28)

(43)

(190)

(190)

(190)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(5,765)

(5,799)

(9,623)

(9,623)

(9,623)

Long term borrowings incl. conv. note

(5,027)

(5,779)

(6,646)

(6,646)

(6,646)

Long term leases

0

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(737)

(20)

(2,978)

(2,978)

(2,978)

Net Assets

 

 

35,317

26,532

33,522

25,022

8,670

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(11,594)

(8,611)

(7,954)

(7,551)

(15,345)

Net Interest

284

104

177

704

498

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

Capex

(27)

(7)

(12)

(12)

(13)

Acquisitions/disposals

130

0

0

0

0

Financing

27,229

(9)

18,898

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

(493)

0

0

Net Cash Flow

16,022

(8,522)

10,616

(6,859)

(14,860)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(5,251)

(15,852)

(6,458)

(16,830)

(9,970)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(5,421)

(872)

(244)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(15,852)

(6,458)

(16,830)

(9,970)

4,889

Source: Immutep accounts, Edison Investment Research

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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