bet-at-home — A strong start to the year

bet-at-home (XETRA: ACXX)

Last close As at 21/12/2024

EUR2.52

0.02 (0.80%)

Market capitalisation

EUR18m

More on this equity

Research: Consumer

bet-at-home — A strong start to the year

bet-at-home (BAH) has started the year very well, with Q119 gross gaming revenues (GGR) increasing by 12.1% y-o-y to €37.2m, and an EBITDA of €12.7m. This is especially encouraging in light of management’s recent guidance of €130–143m GGR (0–10% decline) and an EBITDA of €29–33m for FY19. While this guidance seems conservative, we are leaving our forecasts broadly unchanged until there is further clarity on the impact of the Swiss IP blocking. The stock trades at 13.1x EV/EBITDA and 18.1x P/E for FY19e, which is at the top of the peer group, although its ability to pay high dividends is very attractive.

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Consumer

bet-at-home

A strong start to the year

Q119 results

Travel & leisure

29 April 2019

Price

€70.45

Market cap

€494m

Net cash (€m) at 31 March 2019

78.9

Shares in issue

7.0m

Free float

47.3%

Code

ACXX

Primary exchange

XETR

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

25.4

15.5

(13.5)

Rel (local)

16.2

5.8

(12.2)

52-week high/low

€90.30

€44.30

Business description

Founded in 1999, bet-at-home is an online sports betting and gaming company with c 300 employees. It is licensed in Malta and headquartered in Dusseldorf, Germany. Since 2009 bet-at-home has been part of Betclic Everest, a privately owned French online gaming company.

Next event

H119 results

29 July 2019

Analysts

Victoria Pease

+44 (0)20 3077 5740

Richard Williamson

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

bet-at-home is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

bet-at-home (BAH) has started the year very well, with Q119 gross gaming revenues (GGR) increasing by 12.1% y-o-y to €37.2m, and an EBITDA of €12.7m. This is especially encouraging in light of management’s recent guidance of €130–143m GGR (0–10% decline) and an EBITDA of €29–33m for FY19. While this guidance seems conservative, we are leaving our forecasts broadly unchanged until there is further clarity on the impact of the Swiss IP blocking. The stock trades at 13.1x EV/EBITDA and 18.1x P/E for FY19e, which is at the top of the peer group, although its ability to pay high dividends is very attractive.

Year end

Revenue (GGR) (€m)

EBITDA
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS**
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

145.4

36.4

4.81

7.50

14.6

10.6

12/18

143.4

36.2

4.65

6.50

15.2

9.2

12/19e

136.9

31.6

3.89

5.00

18.1

7.1

12/20e

140.3

32.1

3.95

5.00

17.8

7.1

Note: *EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. ** Includes special dividends.

Q119 results: 12.1% growth in GGR

Benefiting from marketing momentum in 2018, BAH has reported impressive Q119 GGR growth of 12.1% to €37.2m, with an EBITDA of €12.7m. This compares to €33.2m and €9.3m in Q118. The number of registered customers now totals 5.1m vs 4.9m at Q118. During the quarter, marketing costs of €8.2m represented 22% of GGR, which is lower than long-term trends (25–30%) due to the lack of any major tournaments. Excluding customer balances, net cash at Q119 was €78.9m and the FY18 final dividend of €6.50 (€45.5m cash) will be paid in May.

Guidance reiterated, estimates broadly unchanged

Management has reiterated FY19 guidance of €130–143m GGR and an EBITDA of €29–33m. Although this appears very conservative in light of the strong Q119 performance, we note that uncertainties in Switzerland (IP blocking effective from July 2019), as well as the lack of any major tournaments, are likely to weigh heavily on volumes. Pending further clarity on Swiss volumes, we have left our forecasts broadly unchanged, other than some minor adjustments due to IFRS16 (slightly higher depreciation and leasing expenses). The company continues to face regulatory uncertainty across many of its markets - please see our March initiation report for details.

Valuation: High dividend yield supports stock

Despite regulatory concerns, BAH’s shares have rebounded over 50% ytd, largely due to the company’s ability to continue paying generous dividends. The stock trades at 13.1x EV/EBITDA and 18.1x P/E for FY19e, which is at the top end of the peer group, but its healthy net cash position and 7.1% forecast dividend yield are very attractive. In our view, a major catalyst for a further re-rating would be concrete evidence of positive regulation in core markets, especially Germany and Austria.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

€'m

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

31-December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue (GGR)

 

 

107.0

121.6

138.7

145.4

143.4

136.9

140.3

143.1

Cost of Sales

(12.3)

(21.3)

(25.8)

(27.6)

(28.2)

(25.8)

(26.2)

(26.8)

Net Gaming Revenue

94.7

100.3

112.9

117.8

115.1

111.1

114.1

116.3

EBITDA

 

 

26.8

31.6

33.0

36.4

36.2

31.6

32.1

33.4

Normalised operating profit

 

 

25.9

30.7

31.9

35.1

34.9

29.7

30.3

31.6

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

(0.1)

0.1

0.0

(0.9)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Reported operating profit

25.8

30.8

31.9

34.1

34.9

29.7

30.3

31.6

Net Interest

1.7

2.2

2.2

1.5

0.0

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.1)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

27.5

32.9

34.1

36.6

35.0

29.6

30.2

31.5

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

27.5

32.9

34.1

35.7

35.0

29.6

30.2

31.5

Reported tax

(1.8)

(2.3)

(3.1)

(2.8)

(2.4)

(2.4)

(2.4)

(2.5)

Profit After Tax (norm)

25.7

30.6

31.0

33.8

32.6

27.3

27.7

28.9

Profit After Tax (reported)

25.6

30.7

31.0

32.8

32.6

27.3

27.7

28.9

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

25.7

30.6

31.0

33.8

32.6

27.3

27.7

28.9

Net income (reported)

25.6

30.7

31.0

32.8

32.6

27.3

27.7

28.9

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

EPS - basic normalised (€)

 

 

3.66

4.36

4.42

4.81

4.65

3.89

3.95

4.12

EPS - diluted normalised (€)

 

 

3.66

4.36

4.42

4.81

4.65

3.89

3.95

4.12

EPS - basic reported (€)

 

 

3.65

4.37

4.42

4.68

4.65

3.89

3.95

4.12

Dividend (€)

0.60

2.25

7.50

7.50

6.50

5.00

5.00

5.00

Revenue growth (%)

25.0

13.6

14.0

4.8

(-1.4)

(-4.5)

2.5

2.0

Gross Margin (%)

88.5

82.5

81.4

81.0

80.3

81.2

81.3

81.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

25.0

26.0

23.8

25.0

25.3

23.1

22.9

23.3

Normalised Operating Margin

24.2

25.2

23.0

24.1

24.4

21.7

21.6

22.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

4.5

4.8

4.9

4.0

3.4

7.6

6.8

5.9

Intangible Assets

2.4

2.2

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.5

Tangible Assets

2.1

2.6

2.9

2.0

1.4

5.5

4.5

3.4

Investments & other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

89.9

123.3

140.5

120.6

99.9

83.7

78.2

73.9

Stocks

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debtors

57.9

70.7

47.9

16.9

20.1

25.1

30.1

35.1

Cash & cash equivalents

21.8

40.7

82.3

94.4

70.6

49.1

38.6

29.3

Customer cash

9.7

9.4

9.5

7.5

7.7

8.0

8.0

8.0

Other

0.5

2.5

0.7

1.8

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

Current Liabilities

 

 

(27.0)

(32.7)

(35.7)

(35.3)

(34.0)

(38.0)

(39.0)

(40.0)

Creditors

(1.3)

(1.0)

(0.5)

(1.8)

(3.3)

(4.3)

(5.3)

(6.3)

Short term provisions/ tax liabilities

(14.1)

(19.9)

(21.4)

(22.6)

(19.2)

(22.2)

(22.2)

(22.2)

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

(11.5)

(11.8)

(13.9)

(10.9)

(11.5)

(11.5)

(11.5)

(11.5)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.0)

(3.5)

(3.5)

(3.5)

Long term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.0)

(3.5)

(3.5)

(3.5)

Net Assets

 

 

67.5

95.3

109.6

89.3

69.3

49.8

42.5

36.3

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

67.5

95.3

109.6

89.3

69.3

49.8

42.5

36.3

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

26.8

31.6

33.0

36.4

36.2

31.6

32.1

33.4

Working capital

(4.4)

(3.6)

(0.1)

(2.4)

(6.5)

(4.0)

(4.0)

(4.0)

Exceptional & other

5.8

5.9

0.4

(0.4)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Tax

(1.8)

(2.3)

(3.1)

(2.8)

(5.0)

(2.4)

(2.4)

(2.5)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

26.4

31.7

30.2

30.8

24.8

25.2

25.7

26.9

Capex

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.7)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

(2.4)

(1.1)

(1.3)

(0.5)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net interest

2.2

2.2

0.3

1.5

0.0

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.1)

Equity financing

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(2.8)

(4.2)

(15.8)

(52.6)

(52.6)

(45.6)

(35.1)

(35.1)

Other

(15.0)

(9.6)

28.2

33.0

4.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

8.4

19.0

41.6

12.1

(23.8)

(21.5)

(10.5)

(9.3)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(13.4)

(21.8)

(40.7)

(82.3)

(94.4)

(70.6)

(49.1)

(38.6)

FX

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(21.8)

(40.7)

(82.3)

(94.4)

(70.6)

(49.1)

(38.6)

(29.3)

Source: bet-at-home, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by bet-at-home and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by bet-at-home. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by bet-at-home and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by bet-at-home. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Oryzon Genomics — First vafidemstat efficacy data

In April 2019, Oryzon released the results from the first two cohorts in the Phase II REIMAGINE trial, namely borderline personality disorder (BPD) and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The datasets included the first efficacy results, which demonstrated vafidemstat’s potential in aggression management in these patients. REIMAGINE is a basket trial, enrolling patients with two neurodegenerative and three psychiatric diseases, hence the cohorts were small (six patients each). All primary and secondary endpoints were met with high statistical significance, which prompted Oryzon to announce that it now plans to expand vafidemstat’s R&D beyond the currently ongoing other Phase II trials in Alzheimer’s disease (results in H219) and multiple sclerosis. Our valuation is higher at €430m or €11.0/share (€9.3/share previously) with the inclusion of BPD.

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