Results comfortably ahead of estimates
■
Revenues: Q417 driven by 42% growth in Vera&John
FY17 revenues increased 14% y-o-y to £304.6m vs our estimate of £298.2m, driven by 12% growth in the Jackpotjoy division and 28% growth in Vera&John. Q417 revenues increased 13% y-o-y to £82.6m, primarily due to 42% growth in the Vera&John division (£21.7m). The core Jackpotjoy division grew 7% to £56.1m.
At December 2017, average active customers per month grew 6% to 250,321 vs the prior year and average real money gaming revenue per month increased 16% to £23.5m. This equates to monthly real money gaming revenue per average active customer of £94, a y-o-y increase of 9%.
■
EBITDA: Q417 affected by marketing and higher UK gaming taxes
FY17 adjusted EBITDA of £108.6m was comfortably above our estimate of £107.4m. The company reported an adjusted Q4 EBITDA margin of 27.4% vs 34.4% in the prior year. As expected, the UK business was affected by the introduction of bonuses into the point of consumption tax (POCT 2), with the additional payments commencing in October. Q4 gaming taxes were 15.3% of total revenues, vs 11.6% in Q317. In addition, margins were affected by a previously announced targeted marketing campaign for Jackpotjoy UK. Group Q417 and FY17 marketing costs were 20.2% and 16.3% of revenues respectively.
Cash conversion for the year was 94%, resulting in a pre-tax operating cash flow of £102m. The company ended the year with an unrestricted cash balance of £59m and net debt of £311m. Adjusted net debt/EBITDA was 3.6x compared to 4.0x at FY16.
■
Outlook and forecast changes
Management has stated that trading into 2018 remains solid. We have nudged up our FY18 and FY19 revenue forecasts by c 2.5%, but leave our EBITDA forecasts broadly unchanged, to conservatively reflect rising taxes and some additional marketing spend.
We believe the company will be in a position to begin paying dividends in 2019 and have introduced dividends into our forecasts from 2019 (at c 30% pay-out). We also introduce 2020 forecasts, where the major change is the agreed 25% increase in service fees payable to Gamesys. Please see our October 2017 Outlook note for details of the agreement with Gamesys. This cost increase is expected to be offset by leveraging scale and continuing operating efficiencies and, as a result, our group EBITDA margin forecast for FY20 is only 50bp lower than the prior year.
Jackpotjoy (69% of revenues)
For FY17, JPJ produced strong results across all brands in the Jackpotjoy division, growing revenues by 12% y-o-y to £211.3m, with an EBITDA margin of 45.0%. This compares favourably to our estimates of £207.0m and 44.6% EBITDA margin.
For Q417, Jackpotjoy revenues increased 7% y-o-y to £56.1m, with an adjusted EBITDA of £21.0m (vs £21.7m in Q416). The decline in EBITDA was fully expected and is due to a planned marketing campaign, as well as rises in UK gaming taxes (POCT 2).
For the final quarter, Jackpotjoy UK comprised 64% of divisional revenues vs 70% in the prior year. While Jackpotjoy UK and Jackpotjoy Sweden have demonstrated steady organic growth, the most significant increase was from Botemania (Spain) and Starspins, which together comprised 25% of divisional revenues in Q417.
For 2018, we forecast 8% y-o-y growth in divisional revenues to £228.3m, with Jackpotjoy UK growing 7% and Starspins and Botemania growing 14%.
Vera&John (24% of revenues)
Vera&John revenues increased by 28% y-o-y in FY17 to £73.2m (vs our estimate of £70.9m), with a particularly strong performance in Q417, which grew by 42% y-o-y (39% constant currency).
FY17 adjusted EBITDA of £18.0m represented an EBITDA margin of 25% (vs 30% in the prior year) and was less than our estimate of £19.5m, largely due to higher than expected marketing costs and one-off administrative costs (£1.4m accounts receivable write-off in Q417).
For 2018, we forecast 17% revenue growth, with an EBITDA margin of 25%, in line with FY17. We estimate that approximately one third of divisional revenues are derived from Sweden and, due to the introduction of gaming taxes in Sweden in 2019, we forecast a drop in Vera&John FY19 EBITDA margin to 23.5%.
Mandalay (7% of revenues)
FY17 Mandalay revenues declined 7% y-o-y to £20.2m, with an EBITDA of £7.1m, which was broadly in line with our estimates (£20.2m and £7.4m). For Q417, revenues declined by 6% y-o-y to £4.8m, with a 31% decline in EBITDA to £1.1m. This division has historically been more exposed to bonusing and was therefore adversely affected by the addition of bonuses to the POCT. This additional tax was introduced in August, with payments commencing in October.
After the termination of the Jackpotjoy earn-out period, JPJ is now able to cross-sell Mandalay brands to lapsing Jackpotjoy and Starspins players, and we believe the effect should begin in 2018. Furthermore, management has stated that it is considering merging Mandalay with its other bingo assets, particularly given the focus on cross-selling between all the bingo brands as well as the relative size of Mandalay.
We summarise our divisional forecasts in Exhibit 1 below.
Exhibit 1: Divisional Forecasts
Gaming Revenue £m |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
Jackpotjoy |
188.2 |
211.3 |
228.3 |
241.7 |
253.8 |
growth |
55.3% |
12.3% |
8.0% |
5.9% |
5.0% |
Vera&John |
57.0 |
73.2 |
85.4 |
96.5 |
107.1 |
growth |
35.4% |
28.3% |
16.7% |
13.0% |
11.0% |
Mandalay |
21.7 |
20.2 |
20.3 |
20.5 |
20.6 |
growth |
1.2% |
-7.2% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Total Gaming Revenue |
266.9 |
304.7 |
334.0 |
358.7 |
381.5 |
growth |
38.2% |
14.1% |
9.6% |
7.4% |
6.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBITDA £m |
|
|
|
|
|
Jackpotjoy |
84.6 |
95.1 |
97.4 |
100.2 |
103.4 |
margin |
44.9% |
45.0% |
42.7% |
41.5% |
40.7% |
Vera&John |
18.0 |
18.0 |
21.4 |
22.7 |
25.7 |
margin |
31.6% |
24.6% |
25.0% |
23.5% |
24.0% |
Mandalay |
6.6 |
7.1 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.1 |
margin |
30.4% |
35.4% |
34.6% |
34.2% |
34.2% |
Corporate Costs |
-7.0 |
-11.7 |
-12.2 |
-13.4 |
-13.9 |
margin |
-2.6% |
-3.8% |
-3.7% |
-3.7% |
-3.7% |
EBITDA adjusted |
102.2 |
108.6 |
113.6 |
116.5 |
122.2 |
EBITDA margin |
38.3% |
35.6% |
34.0% |
32.5% |
32.0% |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *2016 gaming revenues exclude £2.1m of other revenues from a revenue guarantee and platform migration revenue.
Cash flow and balance sheet
Following the £94.2m earn-out payment to Gamesys in June 2017, JPJ ended the year with an unrestricted cash balance of £59m and net debt of £311m. Cash conversion of 94% produced a pre-tax operating cash flow of £102m, in line with our forecasts.
Including the contingent consideration for the remaining earn-outs (the major portion is for the c £50m to Botemania in June 2018), adjusted net debt/EBITDA ratio was 3.6x at FY17, down from 4.0x at December 2016. We forecast unadjusted net debt of £286m in 2018, with an adjusted net leverage of 2.7x, reaching the company’s target of less than 2.0x during 2019. For a more detailed analysis of the company’s debt profile and debt refinancing please see our November 2017 update and October 2017 Outlook notes.
Under the terms of its covenants, the group is permitted to pay dividends once adjusted net debt/EBITDA reaches 2.75x and we now include dividends into our forecasts, beginning in 2019. We forecast a dividend payout of c 30%.
Exhibit 2: Changes to estimates
|
Revenue (£m) |
EBITDA (£m) |
EPS (p) |
|
Old |
New |
% chg |
Old |
New |
% chg |
Old |
New |
% chg |
2018e |
326.0 |
334.3 |
2.5 |
113.8 |
113.6 |
(0.2) |
118.9 |
119.7 |
0.7 |
2019e |
349.4 |
358.7 |
2.6 |
116.4 |
116.5 |
0.1 |
127.6 |
128.2 |
0.5 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
|
|
£m |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
December |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
194.6 |
269.0 |
304.7 |
334.0 |
358.7 |
381.5 |
Cost of Sales |
|
|
(101.4) |
(130.7) |
(147.5) |
(166.7) |
(185.5) |
(199.7) |
Gross Profit |
|
|
93.3 |
138.3 |
157.2 |
167.3 |
173.2 |
181.8 |
EBITDA |
|
|
70.4 |
102.2 |
108.6 |
113.6 |
116.5 |
122.2 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
70.1 |
101.6 |
108.2 |
113.1 |
116.0 |
121.7 |
Intangible Amortisation |
|
|
(50.6) |
(55.5) |
(62.6) |
(62.6) |
(62.6) |
(62.6) |
Exceptional and other items ** |
|
|
(109.7) |
(80.3) |
(104.9) |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
Share based payments |
|
|
(2.9) |
(2.3) |
(1.4) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
Operating Profit |
|
|
(93.1) |
(36.5) |
(60.8) |
50.5 |
53.4 |
59.1 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(24.0) |
(18.1) |
(30.0) |
(20.0) |
(14.0) |
(13.0) |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
46.1 |
83.5 |
78.2 |
93.1 |
102.0 |
108.7 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(114.2) |
(36.7) |
(65.8) |
30.5 |
39.4 |
46.1 |
Tax |
|
|
(0.5) |
0.1 |
(0.7) |
(3.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
45.5 |
83.6 |
77.5 |
90.1 |
97.0 |
103.7 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(114.8) |
(36.7) |
(66.5) |
27.5 |
34.4 |
41.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
61.2 |
71.2 |
73.9 |
74.6 |
75.0 |
75.5 |
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
74.4 |
117.3 |
104.9 |
120.8 |
129.4 |
137.4 |
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p) |
|
73.0 |
112.5 |
103.9 |
119.7 |
128.2 |
136.1 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
(187.5) |
(51.5) |
(90.0) |
36.9 |
45.9 |
54.5 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
40.0 |
45.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
47.9 |
51.4 |
51.6 |
50.1 |
48.3 |
47.7 |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
36.2 |
38.0 |
35.6 |
34.0 |
32.5 |
32.0 |
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
36.0 |
37.8 |
35.5 |
33.9 |
32.4 |
31.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
674.3 |
652.3 |
595.9 |
536.8 |
478.7 |
420.6 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
668.8 |
648.8 |
589.0 |
526.4 |
463.8 |
401.2 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
0.2 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
4.8 |
9.3 |
13.8 |
Other long term assets |
|
|
5.3 |
2.6 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
Current Assets |
|
|
63.9 |
139.0 |
93.2 |
93.6 |
112.3 |
119.2 |
Stocks |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Debtors (incl swaps) |
|
|
25.6 |
62.0 |
26.0 |
30.0 |
32.0 |
34.0 |
Cash |
|
|
31.8 |
68.5 |
59.0 |
53.6 |
69.3 |
73.2 |
Player balances |
|
|
6.5 |
8.6 |
8.2 |
10.0 |
11.0 |
0.0 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(54.3) |
(154.9) |
(98.5) |
(49.3) |
(47.3) |
(47.3) |
Creditors |
|
|
(23.1) |
(41.3) |
(46.3) |
(45.0) |
(45.0) |
(45.0) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
(25.2) |
(26.7) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
Contingent consideration |
|
|
(6.0) |
(86.9) |
(51.9) |
(4.0) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(394.8) |
(397.1) |
(386.7) |
(343.5) |
(291.5) |
(241.5) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
(189.3) |
(347.4) |
(369.5) |
(339.5) |
(289.5) |
|
Contingent consideration |
|
|
(203.6) |
(33.3) |
(7.7) |
(2.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(2.0) |
(16.4) |
(9.4) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
0.0 |
Net Assets |
|
|
289.0 |
239.4 |
204.1 |
237.7 |
252.3 |
251.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
23.3 |
84.2 |
102.0 |
106.6 |
109.5 |
115.2 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(24.0) |
(17.5) |
(30.9) |
(20.0) |
(14.0) |
(13.0) |
Tax |
|
|
(0.5) |
(1.2) |
(1.0) |
(3.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
Capex |
|
|
(2.5) |
(2.5) |
(3.2) |
(4.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
Acquisitions (inc earn-outs) |
|
|
(355.6) |
(156.3) |
(94.2) |
(55.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
Financing |
|
|
203.7 |
(29.6) |
22.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Dividends |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(14.8) |
(33.3) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
(155.6) |
(122.9) |
(5.2) |
24.6 |
65.7 |
53.9 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
27.1 |
182.7 |
305.6 |
310.7 |
286.1 |
220.4 |
HP finance leases initiated |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
182.7 |
305.6 |
310.7 |
286.1 |
220.4 |
166.5 |
NPV of outstanding earnouts/ other |
|
209.5 |
140.8 |
76.6 |
15.0 |
5.0 |
0.0 |
Currency swaps |
|
|
(4.7) |
(38.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
Adjusted net debt |
|
|
387.5 |
408.1 |
387.3 |
301.1 |
225.4 |
166.5 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by JackpotJoy plc and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. 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