Basilea Pharmaceutica — Another Cresemba milestone payment in the bank

Basilea Pharmaceutica (SIX: BSLN)

Last close As at 20/11/2024

CHF40.35

0.60 (1.51%)

Market capitalisation

CHF532m

More on this equity

Research: Healthcare

Basilea Pharmaceutica — Another Cresemba milestone payment in the bank

The uptrend in Cresemba sales in Asia-Pacific and China triggered the receipt of Basilea’s third milestone payment of US$1.25m from Pfizer for the region (in addition to the March and May 2024 milestones). Asia-Pacific and specifically China have strategic importance as China comprises c 20% of the market opportunity for Cresemba. In-market sales for Cresemba remain robust globally and revenues have grown 24% y-o-y to US$489m during the 12 months ending March 2024. We expect Basilea to receive over CHF35m in milestones in H224 and for its overall activity to intensify in the next few weeks with the launch of the first Phase III fosmanogepix trial (in candidemia and invasive candidiasis) and the expected finalisation of a Zevtera US commercial partner, both significant inflection points.

Soo Romanoff

Written by

Soo Romanoff

Managing Director - Head of Content, Healthcare

Healthcare

Basilea Pharmaceutica

Another Cresemba milestone payment in the bank

Milestone update

Pipeline update

Pharma and biotech

22 August 2024

Price

CHF45.65

Market cap

CHF552m

US$1.17/CHF

Net debt at 30 June 2024

CHF26.2m

Shares in issue (excluding 1.12m treasury shares)

12.1m

Free float

90%

Code

BSLN

Primary exchange

SIX

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

Basilea Pharmaceutica is focused on treating infectious diseases. Its marketed products are Cresemba (an antifungal) and Zevtera (an anti-MRSA broad-spectrum antibiotic). In late 2023, it expanded its clinical pipeline to include two antifungals, Phase III-ready, novel broad-spectrum antifungal treatment fosmanogepix (two Phase III trials to start in 2024) and Phase II asset BAL2062, and one antibiotic, tonabacase. In January 2024, Basilea acquired the preclinical LptA inhibitor antibiotics programme from Spexis.

Analysts

Soo Romanoff

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Jyoti Prakash, CFA

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dr Arron Aatkar

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Basilea Pharmaceutica is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

The uptrend in Cresemba sales in Asia-Pacific and China triggered the receipt of Basilea’s third milestone payment of US$1.25m from Pfizer for the region (in addition to the March and May 2024 milestones). Asia-Pacific and specifically China have strategic importance as China comprises c 20% of the market opportunity for Cresemba. In-market sales for Cresemba remain robust globally and revenues have grown 24% y-o-y to US$489m during the 12 months ending March 2024. We expect Basilea to receive over CHF35m in milestones in H224 and for its overall activity to intensify in the next few weeks with the launch of the first Phase III fosmanogepix trial (in candidemia and invasive candidiasis) and the expected finalisation of a Zevtera US commercial partner, both significant inflection points.

Year end

Revenue (CHFm)

PBT*
(CHFm)

EPS*
(CHFc)

DPS
(CHFc)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/22

147.8

12.3

104.1

0.0

43.9

N/A

12/23

157.6

10.8

89.7

0.0

50.9

N/A

12/24e

196.0

31.9

350.6

0.0

13.0

N/A

12/25e

201.6

34.1

282.4

0.0

16.2

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Cresemba, Basilea’s leading commercial anti-infective, continues to gain traction globally and has been a key driver in the recent beat on our H124 expectations (contributing >90% of the revenues for the period). As a novel treatment for severe fungal infections (such as invasive aspergillosis and mucormycosis), the drug has extended its lead over rival treatments, holding value market shares of c 40% in the US and 17% globally among best-in-class antifungals. It is marketed in over 70 countries and is the only azole treatment approved for paediatric patients in the US, with management expecting a similar label expansion in the EU in Q324 (anticipated to extend market exclusivity to October 2027; US exclusivity until September 2027).

This third successive milestone payment from Asia-Pacific/China (in the past six months) is indicative of the strong sales traction in the region, and an important consideration given the region’s strategic importance (particularly China) with approaching maturities in the US and EU in H227. While we believe that the bulk of the guided milestone payments for H224 (c CHF37m) will come from Europe (we estimate this to be in the range of CHF25–30m), we continue to see the possibility of further payments from Asia-Pacific and China in the coming months.

Beyond Cresemba, we expect heightened investor interest in H224 on finalisation of a US commercial partner for Zevtera and the initiation of the first Phase III study for fosmanogepix (candidemia and invasive candidiasis). While the hunt for a commercial partner has been more protracted than previously anticipated (prior guidance of mid-2024), we believe this is due to ongoing negotiations with multiple interested parties, which we expect should support optimised commercial terms for Basilea. The first fosmanogepix trial is expected to commence in the next few weeks, and the company plans a second Phase III study (in invasive mould infections) to start in late-2024. We see an upside opportunity for potential external (non-dilutive) funding to help support and advance Basilea’s clinical-stage programmes, which may further improve Basilea’s liquidity position.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Basilea Pharmaceutica and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Basilea Pharmaceutica. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Basilea Pharmaceutica and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Basilea Pharmaceutica. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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