Treatt — Another good year despite citrus price deflation

Treatt (LSE: TET)

Last close As at 21/11/2024

420.00

2.00 (0.48%)

Market capitalisation

257m

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Research: Consumer

Treatt — Another good year despite citrus price deflation

Treatt has had another successful year: notwithstanding the decline in citrus prices, revenues were up 0.5%, or down 2% at constant currency. This demonstrates the transformation that has occurred at the company over the last few years, from a commodity trading house to a provider of value-added, technical flavour and fragrance solutions. While orange oil prices were down 50% and revenue from the citrus category was down 10%, Treatt’s broadened portfolio was able to withstand the decline by registering significant growth elsewhere, notably in tea, health & wellness and fruit & vegetables. Management’s outlook for FY20 is positive, despite citrus pricing continuing to have an adverse effect.

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Treatt

Another good year despite citrus price deflation

FY19 trading update

Food & beverages

7 October 2019

Price

404.00p

Market cap

£238m

Net cash (£m) at 30 September 2019

15.8

Shares in issue

59.5m

Free float

100%

Code

TET

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(4.4)

(13.8)

(14.0)

Rel (local)

(2.6)

(9.1)

(10.8)

52-week high/low

480.00p

388.00p

Business description

Treatt provides innovative ingredient solutions from its manufacturing bases in Europe, North America and Africa, principally for the flavours and fragrance industries and multinational consumer goods companies, with particular emphasis on the beverage sector.

Next events

FY19 results

26 November 2019

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5757

Treatt is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Treatt has had another successful year: notwithstanding the decline in citrus prices, revenues were up 0.5%, or down 2% at constant currency. This demonstrates the transformation that has occurred at the company over the last few years, from a commodity trading house to a provider of value-added, technical flavour and fragrance solutions. While orange oil prices were down 50% and revenue from the citrus category was down 10%, Treatt’s broadened portfolio was able to withstand the decline by registering significant growth elsewhere, notably in tea, health & wellness and fruit & vegetables. Management’s outlook for FY20 is positive, despite citrus pricing continuing to have an adverse effect.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

09/17

101.3

12.8

18.5

4.8

21.8

1.2

09/18

112.2

13.8

20.3

5.1

19.9

1.3

09/19e

112.7

14.4

18.7

5.1

21.6

1.3

09/20e

115.0

15.3

19.9

5.9

20.4

1.5

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Balanced portfolio is robust

Treatt’s portfolio is well-suited for the current consumer trends of clean labels and more natural, better-for-you products, without compromising on taste. The fact that the organic (constant currency) revenue decrease was only 2%, despite pressure on citrus pricing due to raw materials weakness, demonstrates the strength of the portfolio. The citrus category represented 54% of group revenue and was down 10% in revenue terms, but this was offset by substantial growth in the remaining categories. The non-citrus categories continue to display significant growth potential, and the news in the latest trading statement is that cold brew coffee will be a new market opportunity for Treatt from FY20.

Expansion a key step for the future

FY19 witnessed the completion of the US expansion, which occurred on budget and on schedule. The capacity in non-citrus was doubled, and the size of the technical and innovation centre was quadrupled. The UK relocation continues, with construction beginning last month, and occupancy scheduled for fiscal Q420.

Valuation: Remains attractive

We value Treatt using a DCF model, which indicates a fair value of 530p (previously 517p). The increase is due to slightly higher profit forecasts and a reduction in our net debt forecasts. Treatt trades at 20.4x FY20e P/E and 14.1x FY20e EV/EBITDA. On both P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples it trades at a c 15% discount to its peer group.

Forecasts

We trim our FY19 sales forecasts slightly in light of the FY19 trading statement, and to reflect lower citrus prices. Our operating profit and PBT forecasts nudge up slightly as the favourable mix would have improved margins. Our net debt forecasts are also updated to reflect the fall in inventories and in receivables due to the depressed citrus prices.

Exhibit 1: Old vs new key P&L forecasts

EPS* (p)

PBT* (£000s)

Revenue (£000s)

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

2019e

15.1

15.3

1.6%

13,064

13,250

1.4%

113,845

112,724

-1.0%

2020e

17.2

17.6

2.7%

13,614

13,979

2.7%

116,122

114,978

-1.0%

2021e

18.3

18.9

3.5%

14,477

14,990

3.5%

120,767

119,577

-1.0%

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Stated on company normalised basis, which is pre-exceptional but after amortisation of acquired intangibles and share-based payments.

Exhibit 2: Old vs new net cash/(debt) forecasts

£000s

Old

New

% chg

2019e

(3,000)

15,904

N/A

2020e

(7,204)

10,812

N/A

2021e

4,274

23,513

450.2%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation

We illustrate Treatt’s relative valuation versus its ingredients peer group in Exhibit 3 below. Treatt trades at a discount to its peer group on both a P/E and EV/EBITDA basis. We believe some discount is justified to reflect its small size and because some of its products are relatively ‘upstream’ in the ingredients spectrum, particularly the bulk ingredients that are sold to other ingredients companies.

Exhibit 3: Comparative valuation

Market cap (m)

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Dividend yield (%)

2019e

2020e

2019e

2020e

2019e

2020e

Givaudan

CHF 24,963

31.4

28.2

22.1

20.1

2.3

2.4

IFF

$12,591

19.1

17.9

15.1

14.2

2.5

2.6

Symrise

CHF 11,422

34.7

29.7

17.7

15.7

1.2

1.3

Chr Hansen

DKK 76,107

40.1

36.2

26.6

24.3

2.0

1.9

Kerry

€ 18,611

27.1

24.7

19.5

17.9

0.7

0.8

Ingredion

$5,218

11.8

11.0

7.4

7.1

3.1

3.2

Peer group average

27.3

24.6

18.1

16.5

2.0

2.0

Treatt

238.6

21.6

20.4

15.0

14.1

1.3

1.5

Premium/(discount) to peer group (%)

(20.9%)

(17.3%)

(17.0%)

(14.6%)

(35.8%)

(28.6%)

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices as of 4 October 2019

Our DCF-derived fair value increases to 530p (from 517p previously), due to the slight increase in our profit forecasts and our lower net debt (now net cash) forecasts. Our longer-term sales growth forecast remains at 5.0% pa, falling to 2% growth in perpetuity. Our DCF is calculated based on a WACC of 6.8% (encompassing a beta of 0.8, an equity risk premium of 5.0% and a borrowing spread of 5.0%) and a terminal growth rate of 2%.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

£000s

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

2022e

Year end September

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

88,040

101,250

112,163

112,724

114,978

119,577

124,361

Cost of Sales

(67,639)

(75,985)

(84,407)

(84,829)

(86,066)

(89,269)

(92,591)

Gross Profit

20,401

25,265

27,756

27,895

28,913

30,308

31,769

EBITDA

 

 

11,604

15,049

16,627

16,281

17,406

20,629

21,621

Operating Profit (before amort., except. and share-based payments.)

10,257

13,650

10,257

13,650

15,108

14,616

15,490

Intangible Amortisation

(142)

(137)

(124)

(105)

(90)

(76)

(65)

Share based payments

(566)

(966)

(1,040)

(1,061)

(1,221)

(1,310)

(1,388)

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

9,549

12,547

13,944

13,450

14,179

14,902

15,746

Net Interest

(703)

(851)

(1,302)

(200)

(200)

88

144

Exceptionals

(553)

0

(1,105)

(825)

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

9,554

12,799

13,806

14,416

15,290

16,376

17,344

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

8,293

11,696

11,537

12,425

13,979

14,990

15,891

Profit Before Tax (company)

 

 

8,846

11,696

12,642

13,250

13,979

14,990

15,891

Tax

(2,144)

(3,129)

(2,284)

(3,379)

(3,565)

(3,822)

(4,052)

Profit After Tax (norm)

7,410

9,670

11,522

11,038

11,725

12,553

13,292

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

6,149

8,567

9,253

9,046

10,414

11,168

11,839

Discontinued operations

0

978

2,976

(1,800)

0

0

0

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

51.9

52.2

56.8

59.1

59.1

59.1

59.1

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

14.3

18.5

20.3

18.7

19.9

21.3

22.5

EPS - normalised & fully diluted (p)

 

 

14.1

17.9

19.8

18.5

19.6

21.0

22.2

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

11.8

16.4

21.5

15.3

17.6

18.9

20.0

Dividend per share (p)

4.4

4.8

5.1

5.1

5.9

6.3

6.7

Gross Margin (%)

23.2

25.0

24.7

24.7

25.1

25.3

25.5

EBITDA Margin (%)

13.2

14.9

14.8

14.4

15.1

17.3

17.4

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

11.7

13.5

13.5

13.0

13.5

13.6

13.8

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

16,161

19,532

21,863

42,784

55,502

49,378

45,257

Intangible Assets

3,364

3,331

752

647

557

481

416

Tangible Assets

11,361

14,821

20,038

41,064

53,872

47,824

43,768

Investments

1,436

1,380

1,073

1,073

1,073

1,073

1,073

Current Assets

 

 

54,435

68,230

102,401

82,953

83,061

85,331

87,825

Stocks

29,990

42,878

39,642

25,750

26,035

27,554

29,154

Debtors

17,853

19,973

28,828

24,463

24,722

25,472

26,367

Cash

6,588

4,748

32,304

32,304

32,304

32,304

32,304

Other

4

631

1,627

436

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(16,388)

(27,003)

(35,781)

(27,063)

(30,206)

(21,775)

(14,490)

Creditors

(15,834)

(19,266)

(16,479)

(16,130)

(15,878)

(15,915)

(15,930)

Short term borrowings

(487)

(7,680)

(19,244)

(10,934)

(14,328)

(5,861)

1,439

Provisions

(67)

(57)

(58)

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(17,021)

(14,281)

(6,858)

(10,124)

(11,621)

(7,187)

(3,337)

Long term borrowings

(7,755)

(7,293)

(3,001)

(5,467)

(7,164)

(2,930)

720

Other long term liabilities

(9,266)

(6,988)

(3,857)

(4,657)

(4,457)

(4,257)

(4,057)

Net Assets

 

 

37,187

46,478

81,625

88,549

96,737

105,746

115,254

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

10,804

4,683

3,580

34,345

16,409

18,197

18,942

Net Interest

(703)

(913)

(609)

(200)

(200)

88

144

Tax

(2,022)

(2,822)

(2,978)

(3,379)

(3,565)

(3,822)

(4,052)

Capex

(679)

(5,111)

(6,190)

(23,127)

(14,725)

1,706

(365)

Acquisitions/disposals

(861)

(1,667)

8,357

1,100

0

0

0

Financing

280

270

21,090

0

0

0

0

Dividends

(2,095)

(3,025)

(2,876)

(2,895)

(3,012)

(3,468)

(3,719)

Net Cash Flow

4,724

(8,585)

20,374

5,845

(5,092)

12,702

10,950

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

6,155

1,654

10,225

(10,059)

(15,904)

(10,812)

(23,513)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(223)

14

(90)

0

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

1,654

10,225

(10,059)

(15,904)

(10,812)

(23,513)

(34,463)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Treatt and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Treatt. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Treatt and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Treatt. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Duke Royalty — A new wave of lending

Royalty investing is a profitable and significant form of alternative finance in North America. However, it is still a nascent industry in Europe and Duke Royalty was set up in 2015 by an experienced team to change this. Its current portfolio is now close to £80m and it aims to add £45–100m in deals a year in the coming years. Duke has just announced a fund-raising of up to £20m, of which £16.1m has already been placed in an institutional offering at 44p per share. This will allow it to invest another £45m in the next 12 months. We estimate a sustainable ROE of 14% for Duke and we see the current fair value range at 50–58p per share.

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