Cranswick — Another strong performance

Cranswick — Another strong performance

Cranswick’s H121 results underscore the company’s strength and broad-based positive momentum. Revenues were up an impressive 17% on a like-for-like basis, adjusted operating profit was up 31% to £62m with margins up +50bp, and adjusted EPS was up 30% to 93p, with reported EPS up 12%. The interim dividend was up 12% to 18.7p, and net debt (excluding IFRS 16 lease liabilities) was £54.6m. Cranswick has made a strong start to the year. Management is understandably cautious given uncertainty surrounding both the pandemic and Brexit, but the outlook for the current year remains unchanged.

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Cranswick

Another strong performance

Consumer

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25 November 2020

Price

3,634p

Market cap

£1,890m

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Share details

Code

CWK

Listing

LSE

Shares in issue

52.0m

Business description

Cranswick is a leading British supplier of premium, fresh and added-value products. It supplies a range of fresh pork, gourmet sausages, premium poultry, charcuterie, traditional bacon and gourmet pastry products through retail, food service and manufacturing channels. The UK is its core market.

Bull

Strong innovation pipeline helps fuel growth.

Management has demonstrated its ability to remain relevant and to offer superior products at a lower cost.

UK origin of produce resonates well with health-conscious consumers and minimises Brexit-related issues.

Bear

The UK retail environment remains challenging.

Brexit negotiations are ongoing and the impact is uncertain until full details are known.

COVID-19 outbreaks continue nationwide, with Cranswick’s Ballymena and Norfolk sites affected during H121, though both sites are now fully operational.

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Cranswick’s H121 results underscore the company’s strength and broad-based positive momentum. Revenues were up an impressive 17% on a like-for-like basis, adjusted operating profit was up 31% to £62m with margins up +50bp, and adjusted EPS was up 30% to 93p, with reported EPS up 12%. The interim dividend was up 12% to 18.7p, and net debt (excluding IFRS 16 lease liabilities) was £54.6m. Cranswick has made a strong start to the year. Management is understandably cautious given uncertainty surrounding both the pandemic and Brexit, but the outlook for the current year remains unchanged.

Robust demand continues

The strong demand across all categories reflects the shift to at-home consumption. Cranswick has demonstrated its agility by adapting to the changing consumer landscape and seizing growth opportunities in its categories. On-the-go consumption continued to be affected by lockdown measures, hence ready-to-eat poultry sales were down as the out of home packed lunch occasion suffered, but traditional categories performed strongly, and continental meats also did well. Among Cranswick’s customers, the top four retailers were well-positioned, while the discounters continued to grow albeit witnessing a slight reduction in market share.

Capex guidance raised

The new Eye poultry facility made a strong contribution to growth, and there is additional investment to expand it further and enhance its capability. Moreover, there will be significant expansion in cooked bacon, with a £20m investment in a new facility in Hull, which will also serve the food service market and is expected to be completed in Q4. Capex guidance has thus been lifted from £70m to £90m for FY21.

Valuation: In line with peers

Trading on a consensus FY21e P/E of 20.6x, Cranswick is valued broadly in line with its meat processing and food manufacturing peer group. Both COVID-19 and Brexit continue to cause uncertainty: Brexit negotiations are ongoing, and it is hard to assess its impact until full details are known. As lockdown restrictions are eased, consumer patterns may take a while to return to normal, hence requiring companies to remain agile. Cranswick is well-placed, as over the years its management has demonstrated its ability to remain relevant and to offer superior products at a lower cost.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(£m)

PBT
(£m)

EPS
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/19

1,437

92.0

144.3

55.9

25.1

1.5

03/20

1,667

102.3

156.4

60.4

23.2

1.6

03/21e

1,854

113.5

176.2

65.3

20.6

1.8

03/22e

1,902

116.6

181.3

67.9

20.0

1.9

Source: Refinitiv

EDISON QUICKVIEWS ARE NORMALLY ONE OFF PUBLICATIONS WITH NO COMMITMENT TO WRITING ANY FOLLOW UP. QUICKVIEW NOTES USE CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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This report has been prepared and issued by Edison. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

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This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Real Estate

Palace Capital — COVID-19 impacts actively managed

Palace Capital’s (PCA) H121 performance was robust and ahead of our central expectations. We have slightly increased FY21 earnings forecasts and introduced FY22–23 estimates, with growth driven by Hudson Quarter completion, on track for March 2021. Significant additional reversionary potential and development/refurbishment represent significant value creation potential.

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