IQE — Benefiting from start of 5G mega-cycle

TMT

IQE

Benefiting from start of 5G mega-cycle

FY20 results

Tech hardware & equipment

25 March 2021

Price	72.6p
Market cap	£582m

Net cash (£m) at end December 2020 (excluding finance leases)		1.9

Shares in issue	801.1m
Free float	86.8%
Code	IQE

Primary exchange	AIM
Secondary exchange	N/A

Share price performance

%	1m	3m	12m
Abs	(1.8)	0.8	164
Rel (local)	(2.6)	(2.7)	104.9

52-week high/low

88.3p

26.0p

Business description

IQE is the leading supplier of epitaxial compound semiconductor wafers globally. The principal applications include radio frequency semiconductors, devices for optical networks, vertical cavity surface emitting lasers and infrared semiconductors.

Next event

AGM

June 2021

Analysts

Anne Margaret Crow	+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Dan Ridsdale	+44 (0)20 3077 5729

tech@edisongroup.com

Edison profile page

IQE is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

As flagged in IQE’s January trading update, FY20 revenue rose to a record £178.0m, taking the company from an adjusted operating loss of £4.7m to £5.4m profit. This excellent performance was the result of 5G roll-out boosting demand for IQE’s epitaxy in both infrastructure and handsets, combined with consistent demand for photonics epitaxy from IQE’s longstanding VCSEL customer. While these favourable trends have continued into FY21, we are cutting our FY21 revenue estimate by £8.3m and PBT by £9.5m to reflect the strengthening of sterling against the US$.

Year end	Revenue (£m)	EBITDA (£m)	PBT* (£m)	EPS* (p)	DPS (p)	P/E (x)
12/19	140.0	16.2	(7.0)	(2.46)	0.00	N/A
12/20	178.0	29.9	3.2	0.29	0.00	N/A
12/21e	175.0	30.3	2.5	0.21	0.00	N/A
12/22e	185.4	39.0	6.8	0.63	0.00	N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Record revenues return group to profit

In line with January’s guidance, group revenues grew by 27% year-on-year during FY20 to a record £178.0m, in line with our £178.3m estimate. Wireless revenues jumped by 38% to £94.2m, benefiting from 5G infrastructure deployments in Asia and 5G handset adoption. Photonics revenues rose by 17% to £81.6m. Production for IQE’s major vertical cavity surface emitting laser (VCSEL) customer was consistently strong throughout the year. Given the high proportion of fixed costs, the strong year-on-year revenue growth took the group from a £4.7m adjusted operating loss in FY19 to a £5.4m adjusted operating profit, behind our £8.5m estimate. Strong cash generation enabled IQE to move from £16.0m net debt at end FY19 to £1.9m net cash at end FY20 (ex-of £47.0m in IFRS 16 lease liabilities).

5G adoption continues to drive epitaxy demand

These favourable trends have continued into FY21. Industry pundits predict a recovery in global handset sales during FY21, which for IQE means that demand for wireless epiwafers for handsets has been strong so far this year, and demand for photonics wafers for 3D sensing applications remains positive. We have left our FY21 estimates broadly unchanged on a constant currency basis, but have reduced them to reflect sterling strengthening against the US dollar.

Valuation: Dependent on handset market growth

At current levels, IQE is trading in line with the mean EV/EBITDA multiples of the sample of companies engaged in manufacturing VCSEL epitaxy. Given IQE’s broader product portfolio, we believe it is reasonable for it to trade on multiples that are at the upper bound of this sample. However, we believe share price improvement will require greater visibility of how handset demand will be affected by any pandemic-related recession in 2021, and whether the switch to 5G and the availability of ‘must-have’ AR apps will be sufficient motivation for cash-constrained consumers to justify upgrading their handsets.

FY20 performance

Record revenues return group to profit

In line with the January trading update, group revenues grew by 27% year-on-year during FY20 to a record £178.0m. The total was in line with our estimate, but with a higher proportion of wireless revenues and lower proportion of photonics revenues. There was no disruption to production from coronavirus-related lockdowns or any significant impact on the supply of materials. Wireless revenues jumped by 38% to £94.2m. Wireless revenues had decreased by 23% during FY19 as wireless customers cut back on inventory levels in response to the uncertainty regarding future demand caused by lengthening mobile phone replacement cycles and the potential impact of Huawei’s addition to the US Bureau of Industry and Security’s Entity List. In addition, there was a modest decline in handset volumes in FY19, which industry analyst Gartner notes fell by 1% during calendar 2019 to 1.5bn units. In contrast, during FY20 wireless revenues benefited from initial 5G infrastructure deployments in Asia, particularly gallium nitride on silicon carbide (GaN-on-SiC) for massive multiple-input and multiple-output (mMIMO) base stations, consumer appetite for 5G-ready handsets and demand for high-performance GaN-on-SiC wafers for advanced RF applications. Photonics revenues rose by 17% to £81.6m. Production for IQE’s major VCSEL customer, which we have previously inferred is involved in the Apple supply chain, was consistently strong throughout the year. Demand for VCSELs was boosted by the introduction of a world-facing direct time of flight (ToF) device to improve augmented reality (AR) experiences in the new iPhone 12 Pro, which increased the VCSEL content per phone by 1.5 times. In addition, strong demand continued for the high-performance gallium antimonide (GaSb) wafers used in advanced IR (infrared) sensing applications. The revenue total was depressed by £0.5m of FX headwind.

Given the high proportion of fixed costs, the strong revenue growth took the group from a £4.7m adjusted operating loss in FY19 to a £5.4m adjusted operating profit. This was lower than our £8.5m estimate because the additional direct costs associated with incremental sales were higher than we had modelled. Adjusted gross margin improved from 14.9% to 18.7%, demonstrating the benefit of better utilisation rates. Adjusted indirect costs rose by £2.0m to £27.8m, reflecting higher depreciation following the commissioning of additional manufacturing capacity in the UK, Taiwan and Massachusetts as well as increased numbers of employees to support growth. The group incurred net £7.1m exceptional costs, which are described in Exhibit 1.

Exhibit 1: FY20 P&L breakdown of exceptional items

Category	Value* (£m)	Details
Share-based payments	(0.3)
Restructuring	(0.2)	Employee retention bonus costs relating to the announced closure of the group’s manufacturing facility in Pennsylvania, US. Non-cash.
Settlement of patent dispute	1.7	Settlement agreement (net) associated with legal costs incurred by IQE. Arbitration panel ruled in favour of IQE in January 2020. Cash to be received in FY21.
Impairment of intangible assets	(6.5)	Impairment of cREO patent and development costs that are not related to filters, following a decision to focus cREO activity on the filter market.
Onerous contract provision	(1.8)	Cost of minimum guaranteed future royalty payments to Translucent agreed when the cREO technology was acquired. These are still payable, although the date when IQE will start to generate revenues from commercial exploitation of the technology has been delayed.

Source: IQE. Note: *Before adjustment for tax.

Strongly cash generative now expansion programme complete

Cash generated from operations quadrupled year-on-year to £35.5m, while capital expenditure was only £5.0m. This is because the programmes to build infrastructure at the Mega Foundry in Newport, South Wales, and expand capacity in Taiwan and Massachusetts all completed in FY19. The group moved from £16.0m net debt at end FY19 to £1.9m net cash at end FY20 (excluding £47.0m in IFRS 16 lease liabilities). Cash outflow included £1.4m acquiring the outstanding 9.8% stake in the group’s subsidiary in Taiwan during October 2020. During H120, management negotiated an agreement with HSBC to relax debt covenants in December 2020 and June 2021. This was a precautionary measure to ensure continued access to debt facilities in severe downside scenarios.

Outlook and estimates: FY21 hit by $/£; recovery in FY22

Management has not provided any guidance for FY21, but notes that while trading has continued positively so far in FY21, with H121 revenue and adjusted EBITDA expected to be similar to H120 on a constant currency basis, it is experiencing a foreign exchange headwind because its revenues are predominantly earned in US dollars but reported in sterling. This has a significant impact on profitability because around half the costs are denominated in sterling and half in US$. We are making changes to our FY21 estimates to reflect the movement in exchange rates as well as new investment in wireless capacity at the Taiwan facility. We present FY22 estimates for the first time, which assume no change in FX between FY21 and FY22.

Exhibit 2: Changes to estimates

	FY20			FY21e			FY22e
	Old	Actual	% change	Old	New	% change	New
Revenue (£m)	178.3	178.0	-0.2%	183.3	175.0	-4.5%	185.4
Adjusted PBT (£m)	6.6	3.2	-51.5%	12.0	2.5	-79.0%	6.8
Adjusted EPS (p)	0.6	0.3	-54.1%	1.2	0.2	-81.9%	0.6
Capitalised R&D (£m)	6.0	5.4	-9.9%	6.0	8.0	33.3%	6.0
PPE (£m)	7.0	5.0	-28.7%	10.0	25.0	150.0%	10.0
Net (cash)/debt excluding finance leases at year end (£m)	(1.9)	(1.9)	2.7%	(10.8)	4.7	-143.8%	(11.8)

Source: Edison Investment Research

The individual adjustments are:

■

Wireless revenues: we had previously modelled £85.4m wireless revenues for FY21 because we had underestimated the scale of wireless growth in FY20. IQE notes that demand for epiwafers for 5G-ready handsets continues to be strong. This is consistent with a forecast from International Data Corp in March, which forecast that global smartphone shipments would grow by 5.5% year-on-year during 2021, 13.9% year-on-year during Q121. The report noted that growth would be driven by continued recovery in demand, the success of the recently launched iPhones and a supply-side push of 5G devices. However, deployment of 5G infrastructure in China is likely to be held up during H121 by restrictions on sourcing items from the United States, although other regions are rolling out 5G networks as well. Around one-third of IQE’s wireless revenues are derived from sales for infrastructure applications, so this geopolitical situation is likely to dampen wireless revenue growth in the short term. On a constant currency basis we model a 1.4% year-on-year increase in wireless revenues to £95.5m. Noting the reference to FX tailwinds, we assume a US$/£ exchange rate of 1.32 (previously 1.26), which reduces wireless revenues to £91.2m, a 3.2% drop year-on-year. We model a 7.0% increase in revenues during FY22 to £97.5m, supported by a recovery in infrastructure-related revenues.

■

Photonics revenues: we had previously modelled £95.8m photonics revenues for FY21, because we had overestimated the rate of photonics growth in FY20. IQE notes that demand for 3D and advanced sensing applications remains positive. This is consistent with industry news. Citing supply chain sources, a Nikkei report published in December 2020 noted that strong iPhone 12 demand had led Apple to boost iPhone production plans for 2021 by between 20% and 30%, while initial full-year production targets were up by 20% to hit 230m phones, assuming that output was not affected by industry-wide shortages of key components. A report published by JP Morgan in February also estimated a 2021 output of 230m, representing a 13% rise from 2020. This is positive for IQE. As 2021 progresses, VCSEL production will depend on the functionality of the as yet unnamed iPhones scheduled for launch later in the year. Some industry pundits predict that all four types of new iPhone will have LiDAR scanners, not just the Pro models as for the iPhone12, others predict that Apple may choose to reserve this feature for its Pro models. The potential upswing in VCSEL demand from the Apple supply chain needs to be balanced against the potential for IQE to lose share to Finisar, which is also supplying VCSEL epitaxy for the Apple supply chain. On the positive side, we note that ongoing qualification of nanoimprint lithography (NIL) technology for distributed feedback lasers used in high-speed communications networks could result in meaningful revenues from H221 onwards. In addition, the ability to integrate more accurate information about a handset user’s physical environment into the AR world is beginning to catalyse the launch of ‘must-have’ AR apps. It is likely that this will encourage Android handset manufacturers, several of which already use modest amounts of IQE’s VCSEL epitaxy, to add LiDAR to their devices. This could potentially boost IQE’s photonics revenues by the end of FY21 as well. We model a modest 4.9% increase in photonics revenues to £85.6m during FY21 in constant currency (ie an unchanged revenue total). Adjusting for a change in exchange rate as above, this equates to photonics revenues remaining close to FY20 levels at £81.7m. We model 5.0% segmental growth in FY22 to £85.8m.

■

Direct and indirect costs: we make adjustments to these because around half of IQE’s costs are denominated in dollars, half in sterling.

■

Capital expenditure: we have previously noted that future investment will be primarily only in reactors rather than the supporting infrastructure and thus proportional to incremental revenue development. IQE has advised that it expects expenditure on equipment to be £20–30m during FY21 as it resumes investment in capacity for specific growth platforms, including three new Aixtron reactors, we estimate totalling over £9m, for expanding wireless gallium arsenide (GaAs) production for handset applications in Taiwan. We raise our FY21 capex estimate from £10.0m to £25.0m.

■

Underlying interest: we have raised our estimate of finance payments for FY21 to reflect the additional capital expenditure, as well as higher than expected finance lease payments in FY20.

Valuation: Further share price appreciation dependent on pace of global handset market growth

We include a comparative valuation of IQE versus its broader (but imperfect) peer group below. At current levels, IQE is trading at a premium on an EV/EBITDA basis with regards to the mean of the larger sample and in line with the mean of the sample of companies engaged in manufacturing VCSEL epitaxy. It is trading above the upper bound of the sample of VCSEL peers with regards to P/E multiples. IQE has a broader product portfolio than its VCSEL peers. In addition, it can manufacture on multiple sites, which gives it relative resilience to US-China trade disputes. For these reasons, we believe it is reasonable for IQE to trade on EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples that are at the upper end of the VCSEL sample. However, we believe further share price improvement will require greater visibility of how handset demand, including that for iPhones, will be affected by any potential pandemic-related recession in FY21 and whether the switch to 5G and the availability of ‘must-have’ AR apps will be sufficient motivation for cash-constrained consumers to justify upgrading their handsets.

Exhibit 3: Peer valuation

Name	Market cap m ($)	EV/Sales 1FY (x)	EV/Sales 2FY (x)	EV/EBITDA 1FY (x)	EV/EBITDA 2FY (x)	P/E 1FY (x)	P/E 2FY (x)
Epitaxy
GCS Holdings	162	2.3	-	-	-	-	-
LandMark Optoelectronics	871	8.1	6.5	14.9	12.4	28.2	22.6
Soitec	6,440	8.9	6.8	30.3	22.2	-	-
Visual Photonics Epitaxy	726	7.8	6.5	21.4	17.7	38.8	28.5
WIN Semiconductors	5,737	5.9	5.2	13.2	11.5	23.9	20.8
Opto-electronics
II-VI	7,235	2.7	2.4	9.8	8.6	18.6	16.2
EMCORE	236	1.5	1.4	10.7	10.2	14.0	12.3
Lumentum Holdings	6,324	3.2	2.9	8.3	7.3	13.0	12.1
Mean - epitaxy and opto-electronics		5.1	4.5	15.5	12.8	22.8	18.7

LandMark Optoelectronics	871	8.1	6.5	14.9	12.4	28.2	22.6
Visual Photonics Epitaxy	726	7.8	6.5	21.4	17.7	38.8	28.5
Mean – VCSELs		7.9	6.5	18.1	15.1	33.5	25.5
IQE	$723m	3.2	3.1	18.7	14.6	338.3	112.8

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices at 22 March 2021.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

	£'000s	2019	2020	2021e	2022e
Year end 31 December		IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS
PROFIT & LOSS
Revenue		140,015	178,016	174,975	185,442
Adjusted Cost of Sales		(119,145)	(144,689)	(142,994)	(148,227)
Adjusted Gross Profit		20,870	33,327	31,981	37,215
EBITDA		16,246	29,919	30,324	38,953
Depreciation and Amortisation		(22,289)	(24,533)	(26,000)	(30,000)
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)		(4,676)	5,386	4,324	8,953
Acquired Intangible Amortisation		0	0	0	0
Exceptionals		(14,897)	(10,638)	0	0
Share based payments		771	(265)	(265)	(265)
Operating Profit		(18,802)	(5,517)	4,059	8,688
Underlying interest		(1,606)	(2,165)	(1,800)	(2,200)
Exceptionals and losses from JVs		(4,540)	3,788	0	0
Profit Before Tax (norm)		(7,019)	3,221	2,524	6,753
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)		(24,948)	(3,894)	2,259	6,488
Reported tax		(10,180)	1,001	(480)	(1,283)
Profit After Tax (norm)		(19,010)	2,702	2,044	5,470
Profit After Tax (FRS 3)		(35,128)	(2,893)	1,779	5,205

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)		787.2	797.2	801.0	801.1
EPS - normalised (p)		(2.46)	0.29	0.21	0.63
EPS - (IFRS) (p)		(4.51)	(0.41)	0.18	0.61
Dividend per share (p)		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

BALANCE SHEET
Fixed Assets		300,047	277,161	284,161	270,161
Intangible Assets		118,456	105,772	106,272	104,772
Tangible Assets		136,557	126,229	132,729	120,229
Other		45,034	45,160	45,160	45,160
Current Assets		72,533	94,125	88,000	110,760
Stocks		30,668	30,887	31,639	35,564
Debtors		33,065	38,575	38,351	40,645
Cash		8,800	24,663	18,010	34,550
Other		0	0	0	0
Current Liabilities		(32,646)	(48,545)	(45,071)	(47,078)
Creditors		(27,529)	(37,546)	(34,072)	(36,079)
Short term borrowings (including lease liabilities)		(5,117)	(10,999)	(10,999)	(10,999)
Long Term Liabilities		(69,491)	(62,306)	(62,306)	(62,306)
Long term borrowings*		(67,631)	(58,765)	(58,765)	(58,765)
Other long term liabilities		(1,860)	(3,541)	(3,541)	(3,541)
Net Assets		270,443	260,435	264,784	271,536

CASH FLOW
Operating Cash Flow		8,948	35,457	28,147	34,741
Net Interest		(671)	(1,142)	(1,800)	(2,200)
Tax		(151)	(993)	0	0
Capital expenditure and capitalised R&D		(41,834)	(10,402)	(33,000)	(16,000)
Acquisitions/disposals		10	(1,363)	0	0
Financing		712	240	0	0
Dividends		0	0	0	0
Net Cash Flow		(32,986)	21,797	(6,653)	16,541
Opening net debt/(cash)*		(20,807)	63,948	45,101	51,754
HP finance leases initiated		0	0	0	0
Other		(51,769)	(2,950)	0	0
Closing net debt/(cash)		63,948	45,101	51,754	35,214
Closing net debt/(cash) excluding finance leases		15,970	(1,923)	4,730	(11,810)

Source: IQE accounts, Edison Investment Research

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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New York +1 646 653 7026

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