Current portfolio positioning
The rapid acceleration of change during the height of the pandemic and the myriad investment opportunities this generated, meant that portfolio turnover was slightly higher than usual in the financial year ended 31 May 2021, at around 30% pa. However, turnover has returned to more normal levels of around 23% pa in recent months.
The major portfolio changes implemented over the past year are reflected in changes to the composition of USA’s top 10 holdings – Roku, Moderna, Twilio, Stripe and Affirm are now all ranked in this list (Exhibit 1). Existing positions in Roku and Moderna have seen strong share price performance over the past year, while the managers added to their position in Twilio. This company has expanded its communications offering to integrate consumer data, thereby increasing its competitive advantage. The trust’s managers believe Twilio’s addressable market is huge, perhaps US$1tn, and it is only in the early stages of exploiting its growing market dominance.
Amazon and Tesla remain top 10 holdings, but Tesla has yielded its top ranking to Shopify. Tesla’s share price rose over 600% during 2020, lifting its portfolio weighting to almost 15%, which the managers deemed to be excessive. Accordingly, they reduced the position significantly in January 2021, to reduce portfolio exposure to this name and to reflect their view that the share price has less upside potential after such a significant and rapid rise. However, Robinson and Gibson remain positive about Tesla’s long-term prospects. The company is starting to solve the problem of manufacturing vehicles at scale and its energy generation and storage sectors hold promise, although they are still at a relatively early stage of development. Former top 10 holdings Alphabet and Mastercard have been sold outright, as the managers view the upside case for both companies as increasingly challenged. They lack confidence in Alphabet’s most ambitious projects such as Waymo, its autonomous driving unit, while Mastercard’s traditional credit card model is being challenged by competition from new payment methods. The managers believe USA’s other digital payments holdings such as Stripe and Affirm, offer more interesting technologies and greater growth potential.
Exhibit 2: Portfolio sector exposure at 31 August 2021 (% unless stated)
Sector |
Portfolio |
Change (pp) |
Benchmark end-Aug 2021 |
Active weight vs benchmark (pp) |
end-Aug 2021 |
end-Aug 2020 |
Information technology |
33.3 |
25.6 |
7.7 |
27.9 |
5.4 |
Consumer discretionary |
23.1 |
37.2 |
(14.1) |
11.9 |
11.2 |
Healthcare |
19.0 |
10.7 |
8.3 |
13.4 |
5.6 |
Communication services |
7.7 |
8.6 |
(0.9) |
11.5 |
(3.8) |
Industrials |
7.0 |
7.1 |
(0.1) |
8.2 |
(1.2) |
Financials |
4.9 |
6.9 |
(2.0) |
11.2 |
(6.3) |
Materials |
1.3 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
2.6 |
(1.3) |
Real estate |
0.9 |
1.4 |
(0.5) |
2.6 |
(1.7) |
Consumer staples |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
5.8 |
(5.5) |
Energy |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.4 |
(2.4) |
Utilities |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.5 |
(2.5) |
Cash |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
2.5 |
|
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
|
Source: Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust, Edison Investment Research
Other recent sales have included the disposal of the trust’s position in Facebook due to concerns about the company’s resistance to regulatory controls and its treatment of staff. The managers have also sold Slack Technologies, the business technology software platform, following its expensive acquisition by Salesforce.com, along with New Relic, Activision and Interactive Brokers, whose investment cases have not played out as expected.
These sales have provided capital for the acquisition of companies across many sectors that are applying digital technology. USA has new positions in innovative healthcare companies such as Recursion Pharmaceuticals, a biotech company focused on industrialising drug discovery and 10x Genomics, another life sciences company focused on single cell sequencing for use in medical research and testing. The managers believe both these companies are potentially at the forefront of a new era of lower-cost healthcare. They have also acquired an early-stage investment in Sana Biotechnology, which specialises in gene editing, a process with wide applicability in the treatment of diseases, including cancer.
Robinson and Gibson have also opened an exposure to the insurance company Lemonade, an online insurer with an innovative model that includes taking a fixed fee from premiums and channelling residual funds not paid out in claims to social causes nominated by policyholders. The managers have also purchased positions in e-commerce platforms Carvana and Vroom, which operate in the second-hand vehicle market, and two internet content companies: Pinterest is a visual discovery site, with great potential as a source of inspiration for activities such as cooking, handicrafts and DIY; and Snap (formerly SnapChat), which is a leader in augmented reality advertising. The managers believe advertisers are looking for platforms beyond Facebook and Alphabet and both Pinterest and Snap could be major beneficiaries of this shift. Coursera, the education content platform discussed above, is also a recent acquisition.
In their search for exceptional companies, the trust’s managers are indifferent between publicly and privately owned businesses. In the financial year ended 31 May 2021, private, unlisted investments represented 16.5% of total assets, invested in 20 companies, up from 12.2% and 17 companies in FY20. The managers purchased small positions in seven new companies during the year:
■
Brex, a financial management platform for businesses;
■
Capsule, an online pharmacy;
■
Epic Games, a video games company with several interesting lines of business;
■
Honor Technology, which aims to improve the efficiency of the US home care sector;
■
Lyra Healthcare, a provider of mental healthcare benefits to employers;
■
Nuro, a delivery business, which is the first to receive US government approval to commercially deploy autonomous vehicles; and
■
PsiQuantum, which is seeking to commercialise quantum computing.
Four existing private holdings listed during the financial year:
■
Affirm, a payments and consumer finance company;
■
Snowflake, a cloud-based data platform;
■
Airbnb, a short-term letting business focused on the holiday market; and
■
Butterfly Network, a portable ultrasound provider.
The managers have made several changes to the portfolio’s privately owned holdings since the financial year end. They have added to existing holdings in Lyra Healthcare, Away, a high-end luggage company and Thumbtack, a site matching handymen, cleaners, furniture removalists and other service providers with local customers. The portfolio has also acquired a new position in Faire Wholesale, a wholesaler that supplies homewares, food and fashion to retail outlets. USA’s managers stress that they remain on the lookout for ‘high potential opportunities’ not widely accessible through public markets.
The portfolio changes implemented over the past year, combined with valuation changes, have resulted in some notable changes to the composition of the portfolio at a sectoral level (as illustrated in Exhibit 2). There are no specific limits on sectoral allocations. The combined exposure to the trust’s three largest sectoral positions – in IT, consumer discretionary and healthcare – remains almost unchanged, totalling 75% at end-August 2021, up only slightly from 74% a year earlier. However, within these top three sectors, there have been sizable increases in the weightings of IT and healthcare, while exposure to consumer discretionary stocks has been reduced markedly. Nonetheless, consumer discretionary remains USA’s largest sectoral overweight (11.2pp overweight), followed by healthcare (+5.6pp) and IT (+5.4pp). The portfolio is underweight all other sectors, most notably financials (-6.3pp) and consumer staples (-5.5pp).