Brady — Update 17 January 2017

Brady — Update 17 January 2017

Brady

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Brady

In line, focus has been on customer success

Trading update

Software & comp services

17 January 2017

Price

70.5p

Market cap

£59m

Net cash (£m) at 30 June 2016

6.4

Shares in issue

83.1m

Free float

83.5%

Code

BRY

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

0.0

3.7

27.6

Rel (local)

(4.1)

(0.4)

3.1

52-week high/low

71.5p

51.0p

Business description

Brady is the largest Europe-based E/CTRM player. It provides a range of transaction and risk management software applications, which help producers, consumers, financial institutions and trading companies manage their commodity transactions in a single, integrated solution.

Next events

Final results

Mid-March

Analysts

Richard Jeans

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

Brady is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

In a brief trading update, Brady says that trading is in line with market expectations. FY16 saw of a lot of internal change, with a new chairman and COO while the CEO left the group. While commodity markets have seen some improvements, the backdrop remains challenging. The main focus over the last few months has been on improving efficiencies, including a shift away from the old divisions to global functions. We make no major changes to our forecasts and, given the strong balance sheet and scope for recovery, continue to believe the shares look attractive, trading on c 18x our cash-adjusted FY17e earnings.

Year
end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/14

31.0

5.1

5.3

1.9

13.3

2.7

12/15

27.4

1.0

1.0

0.0

70.5

N/A

12/16e

30.5

3.5

3.5

1.7

20.1

2.4

12/17e

32.2

4.1

3.9

1.9

18.1

2.7

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Trading update

In the brief update, the company said: “The markets in which we operate remain challenging. However, there has been a sea-change in the mood and focus of this business, and as a team, we have entered 2017 with considerable optimism.”

2016 senior management changes

Paul Fullagar stepped down as chairman over the summer after nine years and Ian Jenks was appointed to the role. In early September, it was announced that Gavin Lavelle had stepped down as CEO after nine years and Mr Jenks took on the interim position of executive chairman. In early October, Elizabeth Sipiere joined Brady as a non-executive director. In addition, Ms Sipiere took on the role of chief operating officer until a new CEO is appointed.

New strategy

Last September, Mr Jenks told analysts at the results meeting that he wanted to improve the integration of the group’s various software platforms and ultimately transition the business to a multi-tenanted cloud platform. The new strategy followed an independent review from external consultants. Following the latest restructuring, the group is in lean shape, and the aim now is to improve the way the business operates. Sales teams have been fully adapted to sell the range of solutions and the challenge is shifting to the product level. We expect to hear further details on the group’s evolving strategy following the results in March.

Valuation: Well positioned for commodities recovery

Brady trades on c 18x our maintained cash-adjusted FY17e EPS, 1.6x EV/sales and c 11.1x EV/EBITDA. In our view, the group’s strong balance sheet (£6.4m cash and no debt) and streamlined cost base position Brady well for recovery.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£000s

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

28,136

29,355

31,015

27,374

30,527

32,170

Cost of Sales

(10,063)

(11,119)

(10,977)

(10,867)

(10,957)

(11,547)

Gross Profit

18,073

18,236

20,038

16,507

19,570

20,624

EBITDA

 

 

5,440

3,122

5,592

1,506

4,038

4,640

Adjusted Operating Profit

 

 

4,924

2,470

5,019

924

3,434

4,003

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(1,276)

(1,613)

(1,613)

(1,640)

(1,640)

(1,640)

Exceptionals items

(2,563)

355

(2,143)

(469)

(251)

0

Share based payments

(345)

(313)

(232)

(243)

(263)

(275)

Operating Profit

740

899

1,031

(1,428)

1,281

2,088

Net Interest

64

29

58

31

50

60

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

4,988

2,499

5,077

955

3,484

4,063

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

804

928

1,089

(1,397)

1,331

2,148

Tax

(345)

189

(630)

(329)

(610)

(813)

Profit After Tax (norm)

4,643

2,249

4,315

813

2,874

3,251

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

459

1,117

459

(1,726)

721

1,336

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

75.6

80.9

81.3

82.7

83.2

83.6

EPS – normalised (p)

 

 

6.1

2.8

5.3

1.0

3.5

3.9

EPS – FRS 3 (p)

 

 

0.6

1.4

0.6

(2.1)

0.9

1.6

Dividend per share (p)

1.60

1.70

1.85

0.00

1.70

1.90

Gross Margin (%)

64.2

62.1

64.6

60.3

64.1

64.1

EBITDA Margin (%)

19.3

10.6

18.0

5.5

13.2

14.4

Adjusted Operating Margin (%)

17.5

8.4

16.2

3.4

11.2

12.4

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

42,851

39,137

32,614

31,461

30,229

28,598

Intangible Assets

40,999

37,519

30,996

29,831

28,532

26,830

Tangible Assets

1,158

983

1,076

1,147

1,214

1,285

Deferred tax

694

635

542

483

483

483

Current Assets

 

 

16,874

15,420

16,948

13,633

14,595

16,550

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Debtors

9,036

8,198

7,368

7,039

7,850

8,272

Cash

7,838

7,222

9,580

6,594

6,745

8,277

Current Liabilities

 

 

(11,401)

(11,200)

(10,545)

(10,804)

(10,423)

(10,504)

Creditors

(11,401)

(11,200)

(10,545)

(10,804)

(10,423)

(10,504)

Short-term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Long-Term Liabilities

 

 

(6,717)

(4,467)

(4,651)

(4,814)

(4,814)

(4,814)

Long-term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other long-term liabilities

(6,717)

(4,467)

(4,651)

(4,814)

(4,814)

(4,814)

Net Assets

 

 

41,607

38,890

34,366

29,476

29,587

29,829

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

1,459

4,277

6,209

2,363

3,466

6,179

Net Interest

64

29

58

31

50

60

Tax

(168)

(378)

(420)

(416)

(488)

(650)

Capex

(2,374)

(2,442)

(2,419)

(2,591)

(2,312)

(2,506)

Acquisitions/disposals

(17,983)

(751)

0

(1,186)

(566)

(66)

Financing

17,780

125

338

469

0

0

Dividends

(1,206)

(1,296)

(1,378)

(1,524)

0

(1,485)

Net Cash Flow

(2,428)

(436)

2,388

(2,854)

151

1,533

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(10,304)

(7,838)

(7,222)

(9,580)

(6,594)

(6,745)

Other

(38)

(180)

(30)

(132)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(7,838)

(7,222)

(9,580)

(6,594)

(6,745)

(8,277)

Source: Brady (historicals), Edison Investment Research (forecasts)

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt and Sydney. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Brady and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt and Sydney. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Brady and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Ellomay Capital — Update 16 January 2017

Ellomay Capital

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