AEX Gold — Change in strategy driven by high nugget effect

AEX Gold — Change in strategy driven by high nugget effect

AEX Gold is an exploration company with a substantial ground holding in Greenland. The company’s most advanced project is the former producing high-grade gold mine, Nalunaq. Over 350,000oz of gold were produced from Nalunaq at an average grade of 15g/t Au between 2004 and 2009, with an additional 15,000oz produced between 2011 and 2013. Following its Summer Work Programme at Nalunaq, AEX has changed its strategy and is now focused on using a four-phase bulk sampling programme to achieve a better understanding of the grade distribution of gold mineralisation at Nalunaq. This programme is expected to commence in Q2/Q319.

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AEX Gold

Change in strategy driven by high nugget effect

Strategy update

Metals & mining

20 February 2019

Price

C$0.29

Market cap

C$17m

Net cash (C$m) at 30 September 2018

0.7

Shares in issue

57.8m

Free float

75%

Code

AEX

Primary exchange

TSXV

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(9.5)

(31.3)

(43.0)

Rel (local)

(13.1)

(35.1)

(44.7)

52-week high/low

C$0.5

C$0.3

Business description

AEX Gold is a gold exploration company with projects in Greenland. The company’s primary focus is on the Nalunaq property, which includes the previously operating Nalunaq Gold Mine. AEX’s current focus is on advancing the project using a series of bulk sampling programmes.

Next events

Commencement of Phase 1

Q2/Q319

Commencement of Phase 2

Q3/Q419

Commencement of Phase 3

Q2/Q320

Commencement of Phase 4

Q420/Q121

Analyst

Dr Ryan D Long

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

AEX Gold is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

AEX Gold is an exploration company with a substantial ground holding in Greenland. The company’s most advanced project is the former producing high-grade gold mine, Nalunaq. Over 350,000oz of gold were produced from Nalunaq at an average grade of 15g/t Au between 2004 and 2009, with an additional 15,000oz produced between 2011 and 2013. Following its Summer Work Programme at Nalunaq, AEX has changed its strategy and is now focused on using a four-phase bulk sampling programme to achieve a better understanding of the grade distribution of gold mineralisation at Nalunaq. This programme is expected to commence in Q2/Q319.

Summer Work Programme results in strategy change

During its Summer Work Programme at the 100%-owned Nalunaq Gold Project, AEX completed 18 drill holes. Two of these holes returned significant gold intercepts, including 1.48m at a grade of 17.13g/t Au from 174.3m (AEX1804) and 0.43m at a grade of 2.11g/t Au (AEX1805). While the drill programme was successful in locating geological structures, the company believes that the high nugget effect associated with the high-grade gold mineralisation at Nalunaq makes it very difficult to interpret accurately the deposit’s grade distribution using drilling. This is a common problem in high-grade narrow vein gold projects. As a result of the grade variability, the planned resource upgrade at the end of 2018 was postponed, and is now likely to occur after Phases 2 & 3 of the updated exploration programme. AEX has also postponed the preliminary economic assessment for the project, previously planned for 2019, and will now instead re-examine what economic studies are required after completing Phases 2 & 3 of the updated exploration programme.

Phase 1 bulk sample

AEX plans to extract a 1,000t bulk sample from the 450-490 level, known as Area L. The company believes that this area contains high-grade mineralisation with SRK Exploration Services estimating 4,295t at a grade of 53.8g/t Au containing 7,430 oz Au. Note that this is not a compliant mineral resource estimate and should be considered an exploration target that is conceptual in nature, as there is insufficient exploration to define a mineral resource and it is uncertain whether further exploration will result in the target being delineated as a mineral resource.

Full-scale production targeted for Q2/Q321

Following completion of the fourth phase of bulk sampling in Q2/Q321, AEX believes it will be in a position to move to full-scale production.

Financials

AEX had a net cash position of C$0.7m as of 30 September 2018, but since then has raised C$1m (announced on 9 October 2018). The company currently has a general and administrative burn rate of around C$0.3m per quarter.

Explorer focusing on production

AEX Gold has altered its strategy from exploring and expanding its resource base at the 100%-owned Nalunaq Gold Project, located in Greenland (Exhibit 1) to focusing on exploration through a series of bulk samples commencing in Q2/Q319. AEX believes these bulk samples will give the company enough data to proceed to full-scale production by Q2/Q321. This shift sees AEX align itself more closely with the strategy undertaken by the previous operators of the mine, Crew Gold Corporation and Angel Mining, where exploration drilling was seen as inefficient due to the high nugget effect of the high-grade gold mineralisation. Instead, both companies focused their efforts on near development exploration to extend the mine life by months rather than years, with limited reserves. AEX plans to improve on the work completed by previous operators through the scale of its planned exploration drives.

Exhibit 1: Location of AEX’s licences in south-west Greenland

Source: AEX Gold

This is a higher-risk strategy for AEX as no economic or feasibility study has been completed on the development of the proposed open pit and underground development required for the bulk samples. In addition, there is insufficient resource/reserve base to underpin the bulk sample production and support debt financing, so the company is likely to rely on equity finance to achieve its ambitions in the near term.

AEX is planning a four-phase programme to advance Nalunaq to production, the details of which are outlined below.

Phase 1

The company expects Phase 1 to commence in Q2/Q319 and to be completed by Q419. Phase 1 will initially see the company focus on upgrading the existing site infrastructure, such as the improvement of roads, construction of a new bridge, and moving the exploration camp closer to the project and expanding it so it can be used year-round.

As part of Phase 1, AEX also plans to extract a 1,000t bulk sample that can be used to assess both the continuity of gold grade and the potential level of recovery using gravity methods. The bulk sample is planned to come from the 450-490 level, known as Area L (Exhibit 2). The company believes that this area contains high-grade mineralisation, with SRK Exploration Services estimating 4,295t at a grade of 53.8g/t Au containing 7,430 oz Au. Note that this is not an inferred mineral resource estimate. The potential quantity and grade of this exploration target is conceptual in nature, as there is insufficient exploration to define a mineral resource and it is uncertain whether further exploration will result in the target being delineated as a mineral resource

Exhibit 2: Area of the Nalunaq Gold Mine to be developed in AEX’s four-phase programme

Source: AEX Gold announcement 4 February 2019

This area cannot be mined from underground due to the prevalence of up-dip and down-dip open stopes combined with poor ground conditions making the area unsafe. However, it could potentially be mined from an open pit as Area L is close to surface. AEX is investigating the potential use of a mobile gravity plant to process this bulk sample. Alternatively, the company is also considering shipping the mineralised material offsite for processing.

It is important to note that there are a number of risks associated with the plan to extract gold as bulk sample from Area L:

Firstly, no economic study or feasibility study has been completed. As a result, the potential metrics of the small-scale operation are unknown.

Secondly, AEX has completed limited metallurgical work on this area and is relying on historic studies, which indicate that gravity or gravity and floatation methods could achieve the gold recoveries required. As no feasibility study has been completed. it is uncertain whether the operational costs will mean that the operation is cash flow positive.

Phase 2

The company expects Phase 2 to commence in Q3/Q419 and to be completed by Q2/Q320. Phase 2 will focus on extracting a 10,000t bulk sample from the area known as the Mountain Block (Exhibit 2).

Phase 2 is planned to consist of a small underground exploration drill programme from the ramp on the 720 level, followed by 1,700m of mine development that will consist of a 600m extension to the ramp to 780 level, with six 100m development drives on 10m levels targeting the main vein.

AEX is budgeting for an additional 500m of development and 5,000m of underground drilling to further extend new strike drives, or alternatively in footwall development to provide a platform for underground exploration drilling that would improve confidence before additional phases of development in Mountain Block.

Phase 3

Contingent on successful completion of Phase 2, AEX plans to commence Phase 3 in Q2/Q320 and complete it in Q420/Q121. Phase 3 is also focused on the area known as the Mountain Block (Exhibit 2) and will consist of 1,700m of development to extend the ramp to the 840 level with 600m of drives.

Management is budgeting for an additional 500m of development and 5,000m of underground drilling during Phase 3. This will be used to further extend new strike drives in Mountain Block, or for footwall development for underground exploration drilling, or to extend selected western drives in Target Block where the company believes the drives end on reef.

Phase 4

AEX plans to commence Phase 4 in Q420/Q121, with completion on Q2/Q321. Phase 4 will consist of dewatering and rehabilitation of the South Block (Exhibit 2) followed by 1,740m of underground development that will extend the existing ramp by 100m from 200 level to 190 level with 1,640m of on-vein exploration drives targeting the higher-grade drill intercepts in this area. Deep drilling from surface may also be undertaken to locate down-dip extensions to the vein system.

Full-scale production

AEX is tentatively targeting the start of commercial-scale production in Q2/Q321. The metrics of this potential operation are unknown as no feasibility study has been completed.

Financials

AEX had a net cash position of C$0.7m as of 30 September 2018, but has since raised C$1m through a non-brokered private placing (announced on 9 October 2018). Given the current general and administrative burn rate of c C$0.3m per quarter, we would expect the company to require additional equity funding to implement its four-phase development plan for Nalunaq.


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This report has been commissioned by AEX Gold and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by AEX Gold. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by AEX Gold and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by AEX Gold. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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