Wheaton Precious Metals — Closing in on 1Moz GEO pa

Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM)

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Research: Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Closing in on 1Moz GEO pa

After the bell on 5 December, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) announced that it had entered into a definitive Precious Metals Purchase Agreement (PMPA, or stream) with Allied Gold regarding the Kurmuk gold project in Ethiopia. Under the terms of the stream, WPM will pay US$175m to acquire 6.7% (subject to conditions – see below) of the payable gold produced from Kurmuk at 15% of the spot price of gold until 220koz has been delivered, at which point, the percentage will drop to 4.8%.

Lord Ashbourne

Written by

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Wheaton-Precious-Metals_resized

Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals

Closing in on 1Moz GEO pa

Kurmuk stream acquisition

Metals and mining

11 December 2024

Price

C$86.84

Market cap

C$39,394m

C$1.4134/US$, US$1.2778/£

Cash (US$m) at end September 2024 (excluding US$5.7m in lease liabilities)

694.1

Shares in issue

453.6m

Free float

100.0%

Code

WPM

Primary exchange

TSX

Secondary exchanges

LSE, NYSE

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.0)

8.4

36.2

Rel (local)

(5.8)

(2.3)

8.6

52-week high/low

C$94.71

C$52.92

Business description

Wheaton Precious Metals is the world’s pre-eminent ostensibly precious metals streaming company, with 47 high-quality precious metals streaming and royalty agreements over mines in Mexico, Canada, Brazil, Chile, the US, Argentina, Peru, Sweden, Ethiopia, Portugal and Colombia.

Next events

Q424/FY24 results

March 2025

Q125 results

May 2025

Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Wheaton Precious Metals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

After the bell on 5 December, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) announced that it had entered into a definitive Precious Metals Purchase Agreement (PMPA, or stream) with Allied Gold regarding the Kurmuk gold project in Ethiopia. Under the terms of the stream, WPM will pay US$175m to acquire 6.7% (subject to conditions – see below) of the payable gold produced from Kurmuk at 15% of the spot price of gold until 220koz has been delivered, at which point, the percentage will drop to 4.8%.

Year end

Revenue
(US$m)

PBT*
(US$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/22

1,065.1

505.4

112

60

50.4

1.0

12/23

1,016.0

533.4

118

60

52.1

1.0

12/24e

1,303.9

770.2

144

62

42.7

1.0

12/25e

1,320.2

652.2

123

65

50.0

1.1

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.

Gold equivalent production to hit 914koz in FY30

Production at Kurmuk is expected to begin in H226 and to reach an average of 270koz Au in the first five years of operation and over 240koz annually (of which c 16.1koz pa will be attributable to WPM) over a 10 year mine life (based on reserves) at an all-in sustaining cost of c US$1,000/oz. Including a portion of resources, we forecast that production will extend to FY40 (a 15 year life), at which point the production drop-down to 4.8% will occur. Over the entire period, we forecast that Kurmuk will add c 15.5koz pa to WPM’s production profile, 7.5cps to pre-tax cash flows and 4.2cps to EPS. Discounted at a nominal 9% rate, we value the stream to Wheaton now at US$0.13/share post-tax. We calculate its pre-tax IRR to be a healthy 16.5% (as at 1 January 2025). Consequently, we are forecasting that WPM’s attributable production will grow to 835.1k gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) in FY28 and will average 901.0k GEOs in FY29–33 (cf WPM’s February 2024 guidance of >800k and >850k GEOs, respectively). Finally, we note that WPM has inserted a novel clause into its agreement to incentivise Allied Gold not to over-leverage the project, which will cause the stream percentage to rise by up to 0.55pp to 7.15%.

Valuation: Heading higher with production

We have updated our FY24 forecasts to reflect prevailing metals prices – albeit the effect is negligible (note that, at current metals prices, our FY25 EPS forecast will be US$1.67/share cf our base case (above) of US$1.23/share). Otherwise, post the Kurmuk deal, using a capital asset pricing model-type method, whereby we discount cash flows at a nominal 9% per year, our terminal valuation of WPM has risen by 3.0% to US$58.57 (C$82.83) in FY27, assuming zero subsequent long-term growth in real cash flows (which we think unlikely). If we instead assume 7.4% pa long-term growth in cash flows (ie the average compound annual growth rate in the gold price from 1967 to 2023), our current valuation of WPM in FY24 increases more than twofold to US$139.85/share, or C$197.79/share. As such, at an implied rate of 5.4% per year, WPM’s share price currently appears to be discounting future compound annual average increases in cash flows per share from FY27 only very slightly in excess of the long-term average rate of US dollar inflation of 4.0% from 1967 until 2023.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

$000s

 

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024e

2025e

2026e

31-December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

1,096,224

1,201,665

1,065,053

1,016,045

1,303,922

1,320,236

1,585,134

Cost of Sales

(266,763)

(287,947)

(267,621)

(228,171)

(237,304)

(293,841)

(343,032)

Gross Profit

829,461

913,718

797,432

787,874

1,066,618

1,026,395

1,242,102

EBITDA

 

 

763,763

852,733

735,245

719,704

998,997

958,774

1,174,481

Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.)

 

 

519,874

597,940

503,293

505,270

748,478

650,931

803,763

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

4,469

162,806

164,214

4,593

(1,113)

0

0

Other

387

190

7,680

33,658

27,215

0

0

Operating Profit

524,730

760,936

675,187

543,521

774,580

650,931

803,763

Net Interest

(16,715)

(5,817)

(5,586)

(5,510)

(5,523)

1,261

867

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

503,546

592,313

505,387

533,418

770,171

652,192

804,630

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

508,015

755,119

669,601

538,011

769,058

652,192

804,630

Tax

(211)

(234)

(475)

(367)

(115,455)

(92,904)

(113,066)

Profit After Tax (norm)

503,335

592,079

504,912

533,051

654,716

559,288

691,564

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

507,804

754,885

669,126

537,644

653,603

559,288

691,564

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

448.7

450.1

451.6

452.8

453.5

453.6

453.6

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

112

132

112

118

144

123

152

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c)

 

 

112

131

112

118

144

123

152

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

113

168

148

119

144

123

152

Dividend per share (c)

42

57

60

60

62

65

68

Gross Margin (%)

75.7

76.0

74.9

77.5

81.8

77.7

78.4

EBITDA Margin (%)

69.7

71.0

69.0

70.8

76.6

72.6

74.1

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

47.4

49.8

47.3

49.7

57.4

49.3

50.7

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

5,755,441

6,046,427

6,039,813

6,463,774

6,800,784

7,381,373

7,871,586

Intangible Assets

5,521,632

5,940,538

5,753,111

6,169,534

6,488,048

7,068,636

7,558,850

Tangible Assets

33,931

44,412

30,607

47,562

48,351

48,351

48,351

Investments

199,878

61,477

256,095

246,678

264,386

264,386

264,386

Current Assets

 

 

201,831

249,724

720,093

567,411

727,900

509,318

395,209

Stocks

3,265

12,102

13,817

10,806

14,488

14,669

17,613

Debtors

5,883

11,577

10,187

10,078

7,145

7,234

8,686

Cash

192,683

226,045

696,089

546,527

706,267

487,414

368,911

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(31,169)

(29,691)

(30,717)

(26,075)

(23,995)

(26,705)

(29,064)

Creditors

(30,396)

(28,878)

(29,899)

(25,471)

(23,391)

(26,101)

(28,460)

Short-term borrowings

(773)

(813)

(818)

(604)

(604)

(604)

(604)

Long-term liabilities

 

 

(211,532)

(16,343)

(11,514)

(19,594)

(134,459)

(227,363)

(218,231)

Long-term borrowings

(197,864)

(2,060)

(1,152)

(5,625)

(5,035)

(5,035)

(5,035)

Other long-term liabilities

(13,668)

(14,283)

(10,362)

(13,969)

(129,424)

(222,328)

(213,196)

Net Assets

 

 

5,714,571

6,250,117

6,717,675

6,985,516

7,370,231

7,636,622

8,019,501

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

779,156

845,832

737,821

725,548

1,024,564

961,214

1,172,444

Net Interest

(13,763)

(187)

6,227

33,770

(5,523)

1,261

867

Tax

49

(279)

(171)

(6,192)

0

0

(122,197)

Capex

149,648

(404,437)

(44,750)

(648,963)

(588,710)

(888,432)

(860,932)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Financing

22,396

7,992

10,171

12,934

12,064

0

0

Dividends

(167,212)

(218,052)

(237,097)

(265,109)

(281,140)

(292,896)

(308,686)

Net Cash Flow

770,274

230,869

472,201

(148,012)

161,255

(218,853)

(118,504)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

774,766

5,954

(223,172)

(694,119)

(540,298)

(700,628)

(481,775)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(1,462)

(1,743)

(1,254)

(5,809)

(925)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

5,954

(223,172)

(694,119)

(540,298)

(700,628)

(481,775)

(363,272)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Wheaton Precious Metals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Wheaton Precious Metals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Wheaton Precious Metals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Wheaton Precious Metals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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