Greggs — Confident about FY24 outlook

Greggs (LSE: GRG)

Last close As at 30/07/2024

GBP30.82

146.00 (4.97%)

Market capitalisation

GBP3,152m

More on this equity

Research: Consumer

Greggs — Confident about FY24 outlook

Greggs’ H124 results demonstrate the ongoing benefits of its multiple levers to drive revenue growth as well as a pleasant surprise on operating margin. With a relatively normal environment for input cost inflation, management is optimistic about the outlook for the year. We have marginally increased our profit estimates, which has also fed through to an increase in our valuation.

Russell Pointon

Written by

Russell Pointon

Director of Content, Consumer and Media

Consumer

Greggs

Confident about FY24 outlook

H124 results

Retail

31 July 2024

Price

£30.82

Market cap

£3,152m

Net cash (£m) at 30 June 2024 (pre IFRS 16 liabilities £327m)

141.5

Shares in issue

102.3m

Free float

100%

Code

GRG

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

11.2

13.1

13.4

Rel (local)

9.0

10.4

4.8

52-week high/low

£30,82

£22,82

Business description

With 2,524 shops and 12 manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. Its ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.

Next events

Q324 trading update

1 October 2024

FY24 trading update

January 2025

Analysts

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Milo Bussell

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Greggs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Greggs’ H124 results demonstrate the ongoing benefits of its multiple levers to drive revenue growth as well as a pleasant surprise on operating margin. With a relatively normal environment for input cost inflation, management is optimistic about the outlook for the year. We have marginally increased our profit estimates, which has also fed through to an increase in our valuation.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/22

1,512.8

148.3

117.5

59.0

26.2

1.9

12/23

1,809.6

167.7

123.8

102.0

24.9

3.3

12/24e

2,013.6

183.9

131.9

65.9

23.4

2.1

12/25e

2,230.9

202.8

145.5

72.7

21.2

2.4

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Strong compound growth

Greggs’ H124 year-on-year revenue growth of c 14% continues to look impressive, compounding H123’s c 22% growth driven by a c 6% increase in the average number of shops and underlying growth from a combination of price increases and volume. There is a natural fade in revenue growth versus the periods through FY23 as the required high price increases from previously elevated input cost inflation fall away. The results also show the first year-on-year improvement in operating margin since H221 to 7.9% (H123: 7.7%). It benefited from some unexpected deflation in food and packaging, which buoyed the gross margin, with some minor offset for higher IT spend. As a result, underlying PBT increased by c 16%, enabling a 19% increase in the interim dividend to 19p/share. It is well understood that Greggs is running with a high net cash position given the peak of capital investment in FY24.

Confident on FY24 outlook

The strong start to the year, optimism about ongoing growth from own initiatives and an unchanged outlook for underlying cost inflation leads management to indicate that expectations for the full year outcome are unchanged. We have tweaked up our PBT estimates for FY24–26 by c £1m, or less than 1%, to take account of more favourable gross margin dynamics due to food deflation that is partially offset by higher investment in technology.

Valuation: Modest increase in our valuation

A reduction in our estimated weighted average cost of capital (WACC) due mainly to a lower UK market risk premium to 4.8% from 5.5% (source: Damodaran) as well as modest changes to our estimates and updating for the financial position have led to our DCF-based valuation increasing to £31.90/share from £30.20 previously. The share price has performed well year-to-date, leaving the valuation at a deserved premium to its UK peers given premium revenue growth and profitability.

Strong revenue growth and margin increase

Income statement

Greggs demonstrated strong revenue growth of c 14% to c £961m with more favourable improvements in both gross margin to 61.5% from 60.9% in H123 and operating margin to 7.9% from 7.7% in H123.

Exhibit 1: Summary income statement

£m

H123

H223

FY23

H124

Revenue

844.0

965.6

1,809.6

960.6

Growth y-o-y

21.5%

18.0%

19.6%

13.8%

- Company-managed stores

755.8

855.1

1,610.9

851.2

Growth y-o-y

21.4%

17.2%

19.1%

12.6%

- Business-to-business

88.2

110.5

198.7

109.4

Growth y-o-y

22.7%

24.7%

23.8%

24.0%

Gross profit

514.3

584.8

1,099.1

590.9

Gross margin

60.9%

60.6%

60.7%

61.5%

Distribution and selling costs

(408.0)

(436.5)

(844.5)

(465.4)

As % of sales

48.3%

45.2%

46.7%

48.4%

Admin. Expenses

(40.9)

(42.0)

(82.9)

(49.7)

As % of sales

4.8%

4.3%

4.6%

5.2%

Operating profit

65.4

106.3

171.7

75.8

Margin

7.7%

11.0%

9.5%

7.9%

- Company-managed stores

103.0

147.1

250.1

117.2

Margin

13.6%

17.2%

15.5%

13.8%

- Business-to-business

16.7

24.4

41.1

24.5

Margin

18.9%

22.1%

20.7%

22.4%

Net finance costs

(1.7)

(2.3)

(4.0)

(1.7)

Exceptionals

16.3

4.3

20.6

0.0

Underlying profit before tax

63.7

104.0

167.7

74.1

Reported profit before tax

80.0

108.3

188.3

74.1

Tax

(19.7)

(26.1)

(45.8)

(19.0)

Tax rate

24.6%

24.1%

24.3%

25.6%

Underlying profit after tax

47.8

78.9

126.7

33.1

Reported profit after tax

60.3

82.2

142.5

55.1

Underlying EPS fully diluted (p)

46.8

76.9

123.8

32.4

DPS - ordinary (p)

16.0

46.0

62.0

19.0

Source: Greggs, Edison Investment Research

Revenue from company-managed stores and its business-to-business activities (predominantly franchises as well as sales via Iceland stores) both grew handsomely. The latter’s growth of 24% reflects a greater increase in the average number of franchises of about 13% (524 at end H124) versus H123 compared to the 5% growth in the average number of company-managed stores (2,000 by the period end), as well as higher underlying growth than the 7.4% reported for those company-managed stores. In addition to absolute space growth, there is a key message that the company is gradually improving the quality of the estate, which enables it to driver greater volumes from an enhanced menu as well as enabling sales through more channels.

The 7.4% like-for-like growth in company-managed stores was consistent with what was reported for the first 19 weeks of the period, and we note that June 2023’s trading provided a weak comparative due to good weather, quite a contrast to recent months this year. Management attributes the underlying growth to its well-established menu development (including the introduction of over-ice drinks to 500 shops, which is helpful for attracting a younger demographic and positive for margin) and the ongoing above-average growth in evening and delivery sales. The latter grew by more than 40% y-o-y from 5.3% of company-managed sales in H123 to 6.7% in H124.

Greggs’ gross margin increased y-o-y by 60bp, the first year-on-year increase since H121, due to more favourable food and packaging costs than originally anticipated, which were marginally deflationary in H124. This was more than enough to offset the headwind in gross margin due to an increasing proportion of sales via the delivery channel, which have higher operating costs to serve given the commission payable to the aggregators.

The good improvement in the gross margin did not flow all the way down to the operating margin, which increased y-o-y by 20bp, as wage inflation (National Living Wage) kept distribution and selling costs relatively stable (versus sales) but investment in technology led to deleveraging of administrative costs. The company has moved some of its IT infrastructure and data to a cloud platform having enjoyed a cost holiday on fully depreciated on-premise infrastructure. It has also invested in a new customer relationship management platform to improve customer insight and marketing potential, and new EPOS (electronic point of sale) software is being rolled out.

Underlying cost inflation of 4% in H124 compares with management’s unchanged expectation of 4–5% inflation for the full year, indicating a modest increase in inflation in H224. The main driver to the cost inflation comes from personnel costs, which represented 38% of the underlying cost base. Although food and packaging was deflationary in H124, management expects it to be broadly neutral for the year given the potential for some anticipated pick up in costs for dairy products in the final quarter of the year. Despite this minor uncertainty, it believes the inflation backdrop is relatively stable. Energy costs (5% of costs) are also anticipated to be deflationary in FY24, with all of FY24 and around two-thirds of FY25 usage already fixed, and shop occupancy costs continue to be favourable. It is worth highlighting that underlying cost inflation was quite skewed through FY23 with lower cost inflation of 6% in H223 versus 11% in H123.

The effective tax rate of 25.6% was marginally lower than the 26% rate that management has guided to for FY24–26.

On a reported basis, diluted EPS declined by c 9% to 53.8p. However, the prior year included an exceptional net gain of £16.3m on the settlement of a COVID-19 business interruption insurance claim. Adjusting for this item, the underlying growth in EPS was c 15%. The 19% growth in the declared interim dividend to 19p/share (H123: 16p) was slightly higher than the growth in underlying EPS due to the penny rounding of the dividend amount.

Cash flow and balance sheet

Cash generation from operating activities was significantly stronger at c £157m than the prior interim period’s £114.7m, with the main reconciling factors being lower net profit (exceptional gain above) and a significant improvement in working capital as a supplier was unable to invoice Greggs for £30m of delivered goods due it moving to a new billing system, which will reverse in H224.

As previously highlighted, FY24 is the peak year of the current capital investment programme. At the start of the year, management indicated a range of £250–280m of capex with the £30m difference due to prior uncertainty about the timing of the payment for the new national distribution centre in Kettering, which is now likely to fall into FY24. We previously factored in the mid-point of the indicated range so have now increased our outflow by £15m.

Given the high expected investment, management has been clear about running with a higher-than-typical cash balance. The closing cash position at the end of H124 of c £142m was broadly comparable to H123’s c £139m but lower than FY24’s c £195m following the payment of a special dividend for FY23.

Outlook and forecasts

Management’s expectations for FY24 are unchanged on the back of the good H124 results, opportunities available and an unchanged outlook for full-year cost inflation. There was no comment on current trading post the period, which suggests no material change in fortunes since then. There have been some recent price increases on a number of products (prices of meal deals are unchanged) and management does not anticipate any further price increases for the rest of the year. The company benefits from easing revenue growth comparatives from H223 of 18% versus H123’s 21.5%.

We have marginally increased our PBT estimates for each of FY24–26 by c £1m (ie by less than 1%) with the forecast of a better gross margin (60.8%) than previously (60.4%) due to the more favourable trends in H1 with some offset for higher IT spend.

Management has indicated that the full-year year results may include an exceptional gain from the 2017 sale of its bakery in Twickenham, which was sold subject to planning permission that had not been granted until recently. We have not included the indicated c £15m inflow and c £14m book gain in our estimates.

Valuation

Our DCF-based valuation has increased to £31.90/share from £30.20 previously following the changes in our estimates, updated financial position and a reduction in our estimated WACC to 8.7% (9.4% previously). The main cause for the reduction in the WACC is a lower market risk premium of 4.8% versus 5.5% previously (source: Damodaran).

Exhibit 2: DCF sensitivity (£/share)

WACC

Terminal growth

7.7%

8.2%

8.7%

9.2%

9.7%

1.0%

34.4

31.4

28.8

26.6

24.6

1.5%

36.5

33.2

30.3

27.8

25.6

2.0%

38.9

35.1

31.9

29.2

26.8

2.5%

41.8

37.5

33.8

30.7

28.1

3.0%

45.4

40.3

36.1

32.6

29.6

Source: Edison Investment Research

Compared to its quoted UK peers, Greggs trades at a deserved premium given above-median revenue growth rates and profitability.

Exhibit 3: Peer valuations

Share price (local ccy)

Ccy

Market cap (local m)

Sales growth CY24 (%)

Sales growth CY25 (%)

EBIT margin CY24 (%)

EBIT margin CY25 (%)

EV/ Sales '24 (x)

EV/ Sales '25 (x)

P/E '24 (x)

P/E '25 (x)

Div. yield '24 (%)

Div. yield '25 (%)

Domino’s Pizza Group PLC

320

GBp

1,283

6

10

17.4

17.6

2.4

2.2

15.6

13.6

3.4

3.7

Loungers PLC

206

GBp

212

17

14

8.1

7.9

1.2

1.0

21.3

16.8

0.0

0.0

Marston's PLC

49

GBp

309

3

3

17.0

17.0

2.0

1.9

5.8

4.8

0.0

0.0

SSP Group PLC

260

GBp

2,058

12

9

7.0

7.6

0.9

0.8

16.5

12.9

2.4

3.0

J D Wetherspoon PLC

560

GBp

716

5

4

6.9

7.2

1.0

0.9

15.8

13.5

0.0

0.0

UK restaurants and pubs median

6

9

8.1

7.9

1.2

1.0

15.8

13.5

0.0

0.0

Domino's Pizza Inc

390.1

USD

13,999

(1)

7

18.3

18.4

4.4

4.1

29.3

26.6

1.4

1.6

McDonald’s Corp

264.2

USD

195,410

10

3

46.8

46.1

9.0

8.7

22.3

22.4

2.5

2.7

Starbucks Corp

84.9

USD

97,383

9

4

16.0

15.9

2.7

2.6

21.2

20.3

3.1

3.4

Wendys Co

21.2

USD

4,546

4

3

17.8

16.9

2.9

2.8

17.6

17.2

6.0

6.4

Yum! Brands Inc

122.7

USD

35,001

3

9

34.0

33.0

6.7

6.2

25.6

23.3

2.0

2.2

US restaurants median

4

4

18.3

18.4

4.4

4.1

22.3

22.4

2.5

2.7

J Sainsbury PLC

221

GBp

5,133

4

3

3.1

3.1

0.3

0.3

12.6

12.6

4.8

5.1

Tesco PLC

265

GBp

19,697

4

3

4.1

4.2

0.5

0.5

14.3

13.2

3.8

4.1

UK food retailer median

4

3

3.6

3.6

0.4

0.4

13.5

12.9

4.3

4.6

Greggs

3,082

GBp

3,152

11

11

9.5

9.6

1.4

1.5

23.4

21.2

2.1

2.4

Greggs premium/(discount) to UK restaurants median

17%

44%

48%

56%

N/A

N/A

Greggs premium/(discount) to US restaurants median

(69)%

(64)%

5%

(6)%

(15)%

(11)%

Greggs premium/(discount) to UK food retailer median

227%

263%

73%

64%

(50)%

(49)%

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices 30 July 2024.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

£m

2022

2023

2024e

2025e

2026e

Year-end December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

1,512.8

1,809.6

2,013.6

2,230.9

2,465.1

Cost of Sales

574.5

(710.5)

(790.1)

(881.3)

(979.7)

Gross Profit

938.3

1,099.1

1,223.5

1,349.6

1,485.4

EBITDA

 

 

269.9

299.2

347.5

388.1

414.9

Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.)

 

 

154.4

171.7

191.6

214.0

230.7

Intangible Amortisation

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

20.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

154.4

192.3

191.6

214.0

230.7

Net Interest

(6.1)

(4.0)

(7.7)

(11.2)

(11.7)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

148.3

167.7

183.9

202.8

219.0

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

148.3

188.3

183.9

202.8

219.0

Tax

(28.0)

(41.0)

(47.8)

(52.7)

(56.9)

Profit After Tax (norm)

120.3

126.7

136.1

150.1

162.0

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

120.3

142.5

136.1

150.1

162.0

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

101.5

101.3

102.2

102.2

102.2

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

 

117.5

123.8

131.9

145.5

157.1

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

118.5

140.6

133.1

146.9

158.6

Dividend per share (p)

59.0

102.0

65.9

72.7

78.5

Gross Margin (%)

62.0

60.7

60.8

60.5

60.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

17.8

16.5

17.3

17.4

16.8

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

10.2

9.5

9.5

9.6

9.4

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

685.1

825.2

1,081.6

1,210.6

1,282.1

Intangible Assets

13.5

18.3

25.2

29.0

30.3

Tangible Assets

390.0

510.3

684.8

792.0

844.3

Right-of-Use Assets

281.6

296.6

371.7

389.6

407.6

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

283.0

297.9

172.5

168.7

230.5

Stocks

40.6

48.8

54.3

60.5

67.3

Debtors

50.2

53.8

59.9

66.3

73.3

Cash

191.6

195.3

58.4

41.9

89.9

Other

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(244.1)

(272.5)

(298.8)

(328.6)

(360.5)

Creditors

(191.7)

(216.0)

(239.6)

(266.8)

(296.0)

Leases

(48.8)

(52.5)

(55.2)

(57.8)

(60.5)

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

(3.6)

(4.0)

(4.0)

(4.0)

(4.0)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(284.3)

(326.3)

(398.7)

(414.0)

(429.3)

Long term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Leases

(252.5)

(267.1)

(339.5)

(354.8)

(370.1)

Other long term liabilities

(31.8)

(59.2)

(59.2)

(59.2)

(59.2)

Net Assets

 

 

439.7

524.3

556.7

636.7

722.8

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

272.3

333.0

364.6

407.5

435.4

Net Interest

(6.1)

(4.2)

(7.0)

(10.5)

(11.0)

Tax

(13.3)

(11.9)

(47.8)

(52.7)

(56.9)

Capex

(100.8)

(197.3)

(280.0)

(225.0)

(175.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Equity financing

3.1

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

Dividends

(98.5)

(60.8)

(108.0)

(74.3)

(80.3)

Borrowings and lease liabilities

(52.7)

(53.7)

(57.3)

(60.0)

(62.8)

Other

(11.0)

(5.0)

(5.0)

(5.0)

(5.0)

Net Cash Flow

(7.0)

3.7

(136.9)

(16.5)

48.0

Opening cash

 

 

198.6

191.6

195.3

58.4

41.9

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing cash

 

 

191.6

195.3

58.4

41.9

89.9

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(191.6)

(195.3)

(58.4)

(41.9)

(89.9)

Closing net debt/(cash) including leases

 

 

109.7

124.3

336.3

370.7

340.7

Source: Greggs, Edison Investment Research


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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

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United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Greggs and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Greggs. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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On 29 July, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced it had produced 186,039oz gold in FY24 at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$1,350/oz. This was within the previously guided range of 186–190koz at an AISC of US$1,325–1,350/oz and was 212oz (0.1%) above our expectation of 185,827oz. Production guidance for FY25 was reiterated at 215–225koz (cf Edison’s unchanged and relatively conservative forecast of 216.6koz). Our financial forecasts for FY24 remain little changed as a result of PAF’s announcement. However, we have increased our forecasts for FY25 to reflect the gold price remaining high into H2 CY24.

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