Speedy Hire — Confident of sustainable UK earnings growth

Speedy Hire — Confident of sustainable UK earnings growth

Speedy Hire has signalled that it is fully through a transformation process and clearly focused on profitable growth. H1 revenue (ex-disposals) was almost 7% higher, at £183m, and management flagged that it expects to exceed previous adjusted PBT expectations for the full year by c 6-7%, which will form the base for future years. The positive results, benefiting from the recent operational restructuring, two recent bolt-on acquisitions and positive demand, point to sustained investor support.

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Speedy Hire

Confident of sustainable UK earnings growth

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30 November 2017

Price

57p

Market cap

£298m

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Share details

Code

SDY

Listing

LSE

Shares in issue

523.6m

Business description

Speedy Hire is engaged in the provision of equipment for hire and sale, and associated services to construction, infrastructure, industry and related industries.

Bull

Operational transformation completed.

Demand remains strong/long-term contracts.

Fleet restructure has improved the mix.

Bear

Core markets price competitive.

Construction markets growth slow.

FX raising the cost of some new fleet.

Analysts

Stephen Rawlinson

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Speedy Hire has signalled that it is fully through a transformation process and clearly focused on profitable growth. H1 revenue (ex-disposals) was almost 7% higher, at £183m, and management flagged that it expects to exceed previous adjusted PBT expectations for the full year by c 6-7%, which will form the base for future years. The positive results, benefiting from the recent operational restructuring, two recent bolt-on acquisitions and positive demand, point to sustained investor support.

Operational performance is better and it shows

The main operational reason for the improved H1 performance was better fleet utilisation, up 6% to 55%. That was combined with increased sales of consumables and training and cost reductions. The company indicated it is currently satisfied that in terms of IT, depot structure and operational methods it is performing well with some room for further improvement. Procurement is also making a contribution.

Confidence in expansion plan

Speedy is seeking UK expansion through growing the fleet once again (after restricting it in recent years to adjust the product mix and reduce capital employed), increasing services revenue (training, partnered services and testing) and making more bolt-on acquisitions. The Middle East operation is stabilised but non-core in the mid-term; it has shown improvement but with revenue at just 8% of the group total it is a distraction, in our view. Investor pressure for a tie-up with HSS is no longer in the public domain, which permits the focus on expanding and improving.

Scope to perform ahead of expectations

H1 EBITDA increased by 11.2% to £33.8m. EBITDA guidance for the full year is for around £70m; also an 11% rise. The company has consistently outperformed expectations in recent years. There is also a hint in the results statement that shareholder returns might be enhanced, but, for now, investors will need to be content with a 52% rise in the dividend to 0.5p at the interim stage. Net debt was £63m at end September, less than 1x expected FY18 EBITDA; the target is 1.5-2x so there is scope to invest in growth, both organic and via acquisition.

Valuation: Turnaround points to upside

UK equipment hire companies are typically valued on an EV/EBITDA basis. A 6x multiple for EV/EBITDA is the UK hire sector ‘norm’. We believe this is appropriate for SDY, suggesting an EV of £420m. Speedy Hire’s current market capitalisation is £298m with an EV of £361m, which shows 20% potential upside in the share price.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(£m)

PBT
(£m)

EPS
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/17

369.4

16.2

2.4

1.0

23.8

1.8

03/18e

380.0

23.0

3.5

1.3

16.3

2.3

03/19e

400.3

29.0

4.4

1.6

13.0

2.8

03/20e

414.3

33.9

5.2

1.9

11.0

3.3

Source: Bloomberg (pre two recent bolt-on acquisitions)

EDISON QUICKVIEWS ARE NORMALLY ONE OFF PUBLICATIONS WITH NO COMMITMENT TO WRITING ANY FOLLOW UP. QUICKVIEW NOTES USE CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

New York, NY10017

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

New York, NY10017

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Disclaimer

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investments Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are "wholesale clients" for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document.
A marketing communication under FCA rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a "personalised service" and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a "class service" provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited ("FTSE") (c) FTSE [2014]. "FTSE(r)" is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE's express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

New York, NY10017

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

New York, NY10017

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Consumer

Treatt — Growth continues apace

Treatt has posted yet another year of excellent growth, with revenues up 25% and adjusted PBT up c 45%. The company has reached its FY20 financial objectives three years early, and the management has therefore updated its strategy to take the company through to the next phase. A new facility is being built in the UK, and the US site is being expanded. Both projects are on track and Treatt has now announced a share placing to fund these projects. This was always flagged as a possibility. We update our forecasts to reflect the FY17 results and the share placement. Our fair value is 515p (from 522p previously).

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