IQE — Continued impact from supply chain disruption

IQE (LN: IQE)

Last close As at 21/11/2024

33.10

3.95 (13.55%)

Market capitalisation

266m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

IQE — Continued impact from supply chain disruption

IQE’s reduced guidance for FY19 revenues of £136–142m (vs £140–160m previously) reflects primarily the greater than anticipated disruption to its major US wireless customers as a result of the US/China trade war. There is good evidence to support a recovery in the medium term: the qualification of products and tools in the Asian supply chain for both 3D sensing and wireless RF is encouraging, while exposure to 5G remains attractive. However, the timing of a recovery is difficult to gauge and with Q120 expected to be seasonally quiet we downgrade our FY19 and FY20 revenue estimates by 5.3% and 15% respectively, with FY19 EPS reduced from a 0.5p profit to a 0.8p loss and FY20 EPS reduced from 2.3p to 0.3p.

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Written by

TMT

IQE

Continued impact from supply chain disruption

Trading update

Tech hardware & equipment

19 November 2019

Price

46p

Market cap

£366m

Net debt (£m) at 30 June 2019

0.8

Shares in issue

795.9m

Free float

87.6%

Code

IQE

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(18.0)

(29.0)

(43.4)

Rel (local)

(7.1)

(30.0)

(41.3)

52-week high/low

98.7p

46.0p

Business description

IQE is the leading supplier of epitaxial compound semiconductor wafers globally. The principal applications include radio frequency semiconductors, devices for optical networks, vertical cavity lasers, infrared semiconductors and power electronics.

Next events

FY19 results

March 2020

Analysts

Anne Margaret Crow

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

IQE is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

IQE’s reduced guidance for FY19 revenues of £136–142m (vs £140–160m previously) reflects primarily the greater than anticipated disruption to its major US wireless customers as a result of the US/China trade war. There is good evidence to support a recovery in the medium term: the qualification of products and tools in the Asian supply chain for both 3D sensing and wireless RF is encouraging, while exposure to 5G remains attractive. However, the timing of a recovery is difficult to gauge and with Q120 expected to be seasonally quiet we downgrade our FY19 and FY20 revenue estimates by 5.3% and 15% respectively, with FY19 EPS reduced from a 0.5p profit to a 0.8p loss and FY20 EPS reduced from 2.3p to 0.3p.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17**

154.6

24.5

3.4

0.0

14

N/A

12/18

156.3

14.0

1.4

0.0

33

N/A

12/19e

139.4

(8.0)

(0.8)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/20e

152.1

3.0

0.3

0.0

162

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Restated.

Customers disrupted

The weakness stems largely from the disruption to wireless handset supply chains caused by the US/China trade war, particularly the Huawei US ban. IQE’s revenues for its wireless (RF) products have historically been US weighted and IQE had already adjusted guidance due to trading disruption, but this has been greater than expected, exacerbated by destocking. The company also highlights that demand for Indium Phosphide lasers for the datacom/telecom market has remained weak, with demand reductions from one particular US player in this arena also a major factor.

Good support for a recovery but timing uncertain

Looking through this disruption, there is evidence to support a firm trading recovery. IQE’s global footprint means it can address both the US and Asian supply chains. It has qualified three tools for the Asian wireless market at its Taiwanese facility and is qualifying two more with a Taiwanese OEM. IQE remains well positioned to benefit from 5G and management reports good progress in developing switches and filters for the 5G market. In photonics/3D sensing, orders from IQE’s major VCSEL customer have been consistently strong. Management is confident the business has retained its lead in 3D sensing, reporting good progress across a number of Android supply chains, including two recently announced Android product qualifications.

Valuation: Discounted EV/sales on lower estimates

Our estimate changes (detailed overleaf) reflect continued growth in photonics but a slight reduction in wireless revenues in 2020 due to the uncertainty in timing of a recovery in this business line. While we forecast of losses for FY19 and a marginal profit for FY20, the company’s EV/sales rating is now a discount to peers. We still believe that IQE has built a capability set to drive sustained, more diversified growth. Further progress in the Asian/Android supply chains will be key to building investor confidence in this and driving a recovery in the share price.

Estimate changes and valuation

Estimate revisions

Our estimate revisions are shown in Exhibit 1. Our FY19 revenue estimate of £139.4m is broadly the mid-point of the revised £136m to £142m guidance range, whereas the 15% reduction to our FY20 estimate (9% growth) essentially reflects a cautious stance on the timing of a recovery driven by sales into the Asian and Android supply chains.

With a highly operationally geared model, the revenue reduction drops strongly through to earnings. Visibility is clearly low, but we now forecast the business to be loss-making at the PBT level in FY19 and marginal profitability in FY20. Success with the Asian initiatives and ongoing execution in 5G and Photonics should support operationally geared growth into FY2021.

Capex is expected to be towards the lower end of the previous £30–40m range (Edison £31m, excluding capitalised development), but with the infrastructure phase of capacity expansion now complete, capex levels will reduce and are expected to be much more linear with revenue progression. Our forecasts for year-end net debt have increased but we note that the increase in total debt facilities to around £57m, which was announced in June, provides good headroom and could support further investment if required.

Exhibit 1: Estimate revisions

FY18

FY19e

FY20e

Actual

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

Revenue (£m)

156.3

147.2

139.4

-5.3%

179.0

152.1

-15.0%

EBITDA (£m)

28.4

22.0

9.1

-58.7%

41.4

20.9

-49.4%

Adjusted PBT (£m)

14.0

4.9

(8.0)

-262.3%

23.0

3.0

-86.9%

Adjusted EPS (p)

1.38

0.48

(0.82)

-270.9%

2.29

0.28

-87.6%

Capitalised R&D (£m)

12.0

13.0

13.0

0.0%

13.0

13.0

0.0%

PPE (£m)

30.4

40.0

31.0

-22.5%

15.0

9.0

-40.0%

Net (cash)/debt (£m)

(20.8)

15.2

17.6

15.4%

10.7

21.6

100.9%

Source: IQE data, Edison Investment Research estimates

Exhibit 2: Revenue model

2018

2019e

2020e

Wireless (£m)

87.9

61.5

60.9

Photonics (£m)

66.8

75.9

89.2

CMOS++ (£m)

1.6

1.9

2.0

Total (£m)

156.3

139.4

152.1

Growth

Wireless

-30%

-1%

Photonics

14%

18%

CMOS++

20%

5%

Total

1%

-11%

9%

Source: IQE data, Edison Investment Research estimates

Valuation: Recovery not priced in

We include a comparative valuation of IQE versus its broader (if imperfect) peer group below. Our forecasts of losses this year and marginal profitability next year renders a relative P/E valuation meaningless. With the shares having fallen c 38% since 1 November, on an EV/sales basis, IQE is now trading at a discount to most peers. In particular it is worth highlighting the re-rating upwards of VPEC, IQE’s Taiwanese peer, which has been benefiting from an upgrade trajectory and re-rating upwards due to its beneficial near-term exposure to the Asian supply chain.

We still believe that IQE has built a product portfolio with the potential to drive sustained and more diversified growth in the medium to long term. Establishing investor confidence in this will be key to a share price recovery. We will look for further evidence that IQE is building customer, product and then revenue traction in the Asian/Android supply chain as the first milestones in this regard. Further progress in 5G and the customer wins for the company’s nanoimprint lithography could also provide encouraging lead indicators over the next 12–18 months.

Exhibit 3: Peer valuations

Name

Market cap ($m)

EV/sales 1FY (x)

EV/sales 2FY (x)

EV/EBITDA 1FY (x)

EV/EBITDA 2FY (x)

P/E 1FY (x)

P/E 2FY (x)

Epitaxy

GCS Holdings Inc

203

2.5

2.3

N/A

N/A

23.4

18.9

IntelliEPI Inc (Cayman)

82

3.2

2.8

16.6

11.1

34.4

25.0

LandMark Optoelectronics Corp

758

9.8

7.8

21.6

15.3

45.1

28.8

Soitec SA

3,839

5.9

4.8

19.7

15.4

31.7

24.9

Visual Photonics Epitaxy Co Ltd

752

9.3

7.4

25.2

19.6

41.9

31.0

WIN Semiconductors Corp

4,506

6.6

5.4

15.7

12.5

31.8

23.2

Opto-electronics

II-VI Inc

2,675

2.1

1.7

13.7

9.1

15.9

9.9

EMCORE Corp

91

0.8

0.6

(9.2)

268.6

(6.4)

(16.6)

Lumentum Holdings Inc

5,319

3.1

2.8

9.6

8.6

14.1

12.4

Mean – Epitaxy and Opto-electronics

4.8

3.9

17.4

13.1

29.8

21.8

IntelliEPI Inc (Cayman)

82

3.2

2.8

16.6

11.1

34.4

25.0

LandMark Optoelectronics Corp

758

9.8

7.8

21.6

15.3

45.1

28.8

Visual Photonics Epitaxy Co Ltd

752

9.3

7.4

25.2

19.6

41.9

31.0

Mean – VCSELs

7.4

6.0

21.1

15.3

40.4

28.3

IQE Plc

$476m

2.5

2.3

38.0

16.5

(55.8)

161.9

Source: Edison Investment Research, Factset. Note: Prices as at 19 November.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

£'000s

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year End 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

restated

Revenue

 

 

154,553

156,291

139,361

152,123

Cost of Sales (Inc D&A + SBP)

(115,857)

(111,748)

(117,063)

(116,374)

Gross Profit

38,696

44,543

22,298

35,749

EBITDA

 

 

37,130

28,404

9,081

20,931

Depreciation and Amortisation

(10,596)

(12,364)

(15,081)

(17,931)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

26,534

16,040

(6,000)

3,000

Acquired Intangible Amortisation

(1,429)

(518)

(518)

(518)

Exceptionals

(385)

(7,906)

0

0

Share based payments

(7,526)

1,044

0

0

Operating Profit

17,194

8,660

(6,518)

2,482

Underlying interest

(2,019)

(66)

0

0

Exceptionals and losses from JVs

80

(1,847)

(2,000)

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

24,515

13,974

(8,000)

3,000

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

15,095

6,747

(8,518)

2,482

Reported tax

(435)

(5,558)

1,533

(447)

Profit After Tax (norm)

24,998

11,229

(6,467)

2,553

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

14,660

1,189

(6,985)

2,035

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

689.5

761.8

787.3

795.9

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

3.38

1.38

(0.82)

0.28

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

2.11

0.13

(0.92)

0.23

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

224,836

267,476

295,877

299,427

Intangible Assets

108,513

121,775

127,467

131,860

Tangible Assets

90,875

124,520

147,228

146,387

Other

25,448

21,181

21,181

21,181

Current Assets

 

 

111,925

94,531

79,067

80,130

Stocks

33,044

35,709

32,187

34,592

Debtors

33,269

38,015

34,439

37,093

Cash

45,612

20,807

12,441

8,445

Other

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(44,916)

(48,893)

(71,548)

(75,079)

Creditors

(44,916)

(48,893)

(41,548)

(45,079)

Short term borrowings

0

0

(30,000)

(30,000)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(666)

(3,836)

(3,836)

(3,836)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(666)

(3,836)

(3,836)

(3,836)

Net Assets

 

 

291,179

309,278

299,560

300,642

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

29,717

16,988

6,834

19,404

Net Interest

(2,125)

(66)

0

0

Tax

(5,844)

(665)

(1,200)

(1,400)

Capex

(28,190)

(42,362)

(44,000)

(22,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

Financing

94,912

813

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

88,470

(25,292)

(38,366)

(3,996)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

39,549

(45,612)

(20,807)

17,559

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

(3,309)

487

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(45,612)

(20,807)

17,559

21,555

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research. Note: Capex shown above includes capitalised R&D.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by IQE and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by IQE. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by IQE and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by IQE. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Research: Financials

OTC Markets Group — Revenue progress across group

OTC Market’s (OTCM) third-quarter results were consistent with our expectations and showed healthy revenue progress in each segment. This is a year of investment for the group in people, IT, a new headquarters and acquired businesses. Earnings are set to fall as a result, but we expect growth to resume in FY20 with longer-term benefits also likely to flow from the enhanced capabilities and infrastructure.

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