Picton Property Income — COVID-19 punctuated a positive Q420

Picton Property Income (LSE: PCTN)

Last close As at 21/11/2024

GBP0.68

−0.30 (−0.44%)

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Research: Real Estate

Picton Property Income — COVID-19 punctuated a positive Q420

Picton Property Income has provided an update on its further progress in the three months ended 31 March 2020 (Q420), as well as the impact of COVID-19 and its response to this. The company enters a period of acute economic and sector uncertainty with a strong and liquid balance sheet, and material internal asset management opportunities to support income and capital values.

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Real Estate

Picton Property Income

COVID-19 punctuated a positive Q420

Trading update

Real estate

16 April 2020

Price

75p

Market cap

£411m

Net debt (£m) at 31 December 2019

153.4

Net LTV at 31 December 2019

22.4%

Shares in issue

547.6m

Free float

99%

Code

PCTN

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(9.2)

(23.6)

(17.9)

Rel (local)

(11.9)

4.9

8.4

52-week high/low

103.0p

52.0p

Business description

Picton Property Income is an internally managed UK REIT that invests in a diversified portfolio of commercial property across the UK. It is total return driven with an income focus and aims to generate attractive returns through proactive management of the portfolio.

Next events

FY20 results

Expected June 2020

Analyst

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

Picton Property Income is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Picton Property Income has provided an update on its further progress in the three months ended 31 March 2020 (Q420), as well as the impact of COVID-19 and its response to this. The company enters a period of acute economic and sector uncertainty with a strong and liquid balance sheet, and material internal asset management opportunities to support income and capital values.

Year end

Net property income (£m)

EPRA earnings* (£m)

EPRA
EPS* (p)

DPS
(p)

EPRA NAV/
share (p)

P/NAV
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/18

38.4

22.6

4.2

3.43

90

0.83

4.6

03/19

38.3

22.9

4.3

3.50

93

0.81

4.7

03/20e

34.5

20.6

3.8

3.50

93

0.81

4.7

Note: *EPRA earnings excludes revaluation gains/losses and other exceptional items.

Little change to our FY20 expectations

Q420 began well with positive leasing activity driving achieved rental growth, refurbishment completions, and opportunistic disposals locking in valuation gains. The COVID-19-induced lockdown came too late to materially affect Q420 rent collection but, in common with peers, Picton has seen a subsequent slowdown as tenants seek to protect their cash flows. Collection performance to date is robust and the company is working closely with its occupiers to optimise rent collection and provide support where this is appropriate. The balance sheet is strong with modest 22% gearing, good liquidity and undrawn debt. We have made no material change to our FY20 underlying earnings forecast but have slightly trimmed forecast EPRA NAV per share from 95p to 93p. In line with the normal timetable, the board will consider the Q420 DPS towards the end of April and says it will assess the prevailing circumstances at that time in making its decision. We assume an unchanged Q420 DPS of 0.875p per share, fully covered by our forecast EPRA earnings. Reflecting economic and sector uncertainty, we have temporarily withdrawn our FY21 estimates.

Positive sector positioning and reversionary potential

Although the portfolio is diversified to manage income risks, an overweight position in industrial and regional office property, where fundamentals are stronger, and a significant underweighting of the more challenging retail and leisure sectors (with no shopping centre exposure) continued to support portfolio performance in Q420. In combination with asset management-driven gains, the external property valuation declined only modestly. The gap between estimated rental value at full occupancy (ERV) and the current level of passing rent, substantially the result of refurbishment projects, continues to represent a significant opportunity to support future income and capital values irrespective of future market conditions.

Valuation: Total return with sustainable income focus

Based on our unchanged forecast for the FY20 DPS, which we expect to be fully covered by EPRA earnings, Picton’s shares now yield almost 5% and a significant discount to FY20e EPRA NAV per share (c 20%) has opened up.

Further details on the Q420 update

Picton owns and actively manages a £665m diversified portfolio of commercial property across the UK comprising 47 assets let to c 350 occupiers. The portfolio is managed for total returns but with a strong income focus and through its occupier-focused, opportunity-led approach, the company aims to be one of the consistently best-performing diversified UK-focused property companies listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). A strong weighting to industrial and regional office assets (82% by value) and significant underweighting of retail and leisure assets (no shopping centre exposure) continues to support property returns, maintaining the long-term track record of outperformance versus the MSCI Quarterly Property Index on an ungeared basis, over one, three, five and 10 years to 30 September 2019.

Refurbishment and leasing activity continued in Q420

A total of nine new lettings were completed in Q420 at an average 3.5% above the December 2019 ERV, three leases were renewed/extended (at an average 7.1% above ERV) and four rent reviews were concluded (at an average 12.6% above ERV).

The main transactions included the three regional office lettings that were announced in March 2020, adding £0.9m of annual rental income, at or above ERV. Despite a challenging retail sector, Picton re-let the former Lidl unit in Swansea to Farmfoods and extended its lease with Pets at Home by five years. In Greater London, an industrial unit was let post-refurbishment work at 9.5% ahead of ERV.

In total, seven refurbishment projects were completed in the quarter, representing an investment of £3.7m, with the main project completion at the Rugby distribution centre.

Robust portfolio valuation

Adjusting for the January 2020 disposal of a distribution warehouse in Lutterworth, Leicestershire, for £15.9m (1% ahead of the December 2019 valuation and reflecting a 5.8% net initial yield), the overall portfolio valuation decreased by 0.8% in the quarter to £665m. Allowing for capex in the period, the decline was 1.3%. As has become industry-wide practice, the independent valuation is subject to a material uncertainty clause reflecting the difficulty in assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the absence of a representative level of market transactions. On a sector basis, the robust portfolio performance reflects the continued overweighting of industrial and office properties and underweighting of retail & leisure, as well the positive impact of asset management initiatives in the period. It is our expectation that this outcome will compare favourably with the MSCI Quarterly Property Index when this becomes available later this month.

Exhibit 1: Summary of valuation move in three months to 31 March 2020 (Q420)

Valuation movement

Portfolio weighting

Industrial, warehouse & logistics

-0.3%

47.9%

Office

-0.2%

33.8%

Retail & leisure

-2.9%

18.3%

Source: Picton Property Income

Rental collection

The COVID-19-induced lockdown came too late to materially affect Q420 but, in common with peers, Picton has seen a subsequent slowdown in rent collection. Around 95% of Picton’s rents are billed in England and Wales and following the most recent rent quarter (due) day on 25 March 2020, the company had received 71% of the rent due by 7 April 2020. Including some rent deposit offset, this rate increased to 72% and increased further to 80% including short-term monthly payment plans agreed with a number of tenants. Rent in Scotland and Northern Ireland is next due in May 2020.

Picton is working closely with its occupiers to optimise rent collection and provide support where this is appropriate to assist them through the current uncertainties, while minimising the impact on the company’s cash flows and capital values.

Strong balance sheet position with good liquidity

Following the January 2020 disposal, Picton repaid all of its drawings under its flexible revolving credit facility, or RCF (£19.0m drawn at H120). We estimate end-Q420 drawn debt (including unamortised loan arrangement fees) of £167.5m and, allowing for the £23m of cash indicated by the company, the LTV is a modest c 22%. The remaining drawn debt is all fixed rate with the first maturity in 2027. Picton estimates that on average rental income or asset values would need to fall by more than 40% for there to be any impact on covenants and that it is in any case in constant dialogue with its lenders, who remain fully supportive of the company. With none of the RCF drawn, Picton has access to £49.0m of undrawn borrowing facilities in addition to the positive cash balance.

Most current capital projects have been suspended until site access can be obtained, including at the Stanford Building in Covent Garden where the refurbishment is nearing completion (H120 ERV £1.6m). The company anticipates that it will take a further eight weeks to reach practical completion once work recommences.

Financials and valuation

We expect results for the year ended 31 March 2020 (FY20) to be published in June. We have made no material adjustments to our FY20 underlying earnings forecast other than to factor in the January disposal. However, although the Q420 portfolio valuation was robust, as a result of the COVID-19 impact it was below (c £9m) our expectations that were set following the interim results and supported by the Q320 NAV update. This feeds through into a modestly lower forecast FY20 fully diluted EPRA NAV per share of 95p (previously 94p).

Given the high level of economic and sector uncertainty, we have temporarily removed our FY21 forecasts.

Dividend decision yet to be taken

Picton has declared and paid three quarterly dividends of 0.875p per share. A decision on the Q4 DPS is normally taken towards the end of April and Picton says that it will assess the prevailing circumstances at that time before making a further announcement.

Our FY20 forecast assumes payment of the Q420 DPS at an unchanged 0.875p per share at a cash cost of £4.8m and this is fully covered by our forecast FY20 EPRA earnings.

Valuation

Picton shares now yield almost 5% and trade at a significant discount to FY20e EPRA NAV per share (0.81x). Uncertainty as to the extent and duration of the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic makes it difficult to predict the level of near-term income earnings and capital values on both a company and sector level. Picton benefits from a well-positioned but diversified portfolio, a strong balance sheet and liquidity position, and an experienced management team with a strong track record of property-level returns versus the sector benchmark.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

Year end 31 March

£'000s

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020e

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Rents receivable, adjusted for lease incentives

39,663

40,555

41,412

40,942

38,550

Other income

1,107

7,356

1,443

1,073

1,658

Service charge income

5,153

6,487

5,927

5,718

6,172

Revenue from properties

 

 

45,923

54,398

48,782

47,733

46,380

Property operating costs

(3,308)

(3,501)

(2,578)

(2,342)

(2,592)

Property void costs

(1,540)

(2,023)

(1,830)

(1,373)

(3,076)

Recoverable service charge costs

(5,153)

(6,487)

(5,927)

(5,718)

(6,172)

Property expenses

(10,001)

(12,011)

(10,335)

(9,433)

(11,840)

Net property income

 

 

35,922

42,387

38,447

38,300

34,540

Administrative expenses

(4,411)

(5,249)

(5,566)

(5,842)

(5,800)

Operating Profit before revaluations

 

 

31,511

37,138

32,881

32,458

28,739

Revaluation of investment properties

44,171

15,087

38,920

10,909

2,841

Profit on disposals

799

1,847

2,623

379

373

Operating Profit

76,481

54,072

74,424

43,746

31,953

Net finance expense

(11,417)

(10,823)

(9,747)

(9,088)

(8,239)

Debt repayment fee

(3,245)

Profit Before Tax

 

 

65,064

43,249

64,677

31,413

23,714

Taxation

(216)

(499)

(509)

(458)

68

Profit After Tax (IFRS)

64,848

42,750

64,168

30,955

23,782

Adjust for:

Investment property valuation movement

(44,171)

(15,087)

(38,920)

(10,909)

(2,841)

Profit on disposal of investment properties

(799)

(1,847)

(2,623)

(379)

(373)

Exceptional income /expenses

0

(5,250)

0

3,245

0

Profit After Tax (EPRA)

19,878

20,566

22,625

22,912

20,568

Fully diluted average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

540.1

540.1

539.7

541.0

546.3

EPS (p)

 

 

12.01

7.92

11.89

5.75

4.37

EPRA EPS (p)

 

 

3.68

3.81

4.19

4.25

3.78

Dividends declared per share (p)

 

 

3.300

3.325

3.425

3.500

3.500

Dividend cover (x)

112%

115%

122%

121%

108%

EPRA cost ratio including direct vacancy costs)

22.8%

26.1%

23.7%

22.9%

29.4%

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

649,406

615,187

670,679

676,127

655,004

Investment properties

646,018

615,170

670,674

676,102

654,981

Other non-current assets

3,388

17

5

25

23

Current Assets

 

 

37,408

49,424

50,633

39,477

42,537

Debtors

14,649

15,541

19,123

14,309

19,583

Cash

22,759

33,883

31,510

25,168

22,953

Current Liabilities

 

 

(47,521)

(20,635)

(22,292)

(23,342)

(21,392)

Creditors/Deferred income

(18,430)

(20,067)

(21,580)

(22,509)

(20,559)

Short term borrowings

(29,091)

(568)

(712)

(833)

(833)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(222,161)

(202,051)

(211,665)

(192,847)

(166,031)

Long term borrowings

(220,444)

(200,336)

(209,952)

(191,136)

(164,316)

Other long term liabilities

(1,717)

(1,715)

(1,713)

(1,711)

(1,715)

Net Assets

 

 

417,132

441,925

487,355

499,415

510,118

Net Assets excluding goodwill and deferred tax

 

 

417,132

441,925

487,355

499,415

510,118

NAV/share (p)

77

82

90

93

94

Fully diluted EPRA NAV/share (p)

77

82

90

93

93

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

33,283

36,283

35,088

34,756

21,497

Net Interest

(8,836)

(9,211)

(9,125)

(8,630)

(7,892)

Tax

(426)

(232)

(328)

(845)

11

Net cash from investing activities

(68,123)

48,691

(17,811)

10,251

24,329

Ordinary dividends paid

(17,822)

(17,957)

(18,487)

(18,860)

(19,076)

Debt drawn/(repaid)

14,591

(46,450)

9,183

(22,616)

(27,190)

Net proceeds from shares issued/repurchased

0

0

(893)

(398)

6,107

Other cash flow from financing activities

Net Cash Flow

(47,333)

11,124

(2,373)

(6,342)

(2,215)

Opening cash

 

 

70,092

22,759

33,883

31,510

25,168

Closing cash

 

 

22,759

33,883

31,510

25,168

22,953

Debt as per balance sheet

(249,535)

(200,904)

(210,664)

(191,969)

(165,149)

Un-amortised loan arrangement fees

0

(3,740)

(3,376)

(2,700)

(2,330)

Closing net (debt)/cash

 

 

(226,776)

(170,761)

(182,530)

(169,501)

(144,526)

Net LTV

34.6%

27.3%

26.7%

24.7%

21.8%

Source: Picton Property Income data, Edison Investment Research forecasts

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Picton Property Income and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Picton Property Income. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Picton Property Income and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Picton Property Income. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Witan Investment Trust — Diversified exposure to global equities

Witan Investment Trust (WTAN) can be considered as a ‘one-stop shop’ for investment in global equities. Since 2004, it has employed a multi-manager strategy; there are currently 10 third-party managers, while around 10% of the trust is invested directly in specialist funds. WTAN outperformed its composite benchmark in FY19 and has now increased its annual dividend in each of the last 45 consecutive years. While global stock markets are currently under significant pressure due to the coronavirus outbreak, WTAN’s CEO and investment director are ‘optimistic’ on the prospects for equities with a medium to long-term view, while acknowledging short-term challenges. They believe that given the announced fiscal and monetary stimuli across the globe, the economic recovery, when it happens, could be quite dramatic.

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