Murray Income Trust (MUT) invests in high-quality, mainly UK-listed stocks. It has achieved both its dividend and capital growth objectives over the long term. The trust boasts 50 years of continually rising dividends. It paid a dividend of 37.5p per share in FY23 (ended 30 June 2023 (FY22: 36.0p)), and the board has indicated the dividend will rise to at least 38.0p in FY24. This represents a prospective yield of 4.5%. Late last year the company decided to take action to allow shareholders to access dividend income more quickly and more evenly throughout the year, by smoothing quarterly dividend payments. MUT has also delivered absolute gains and outperformance of the market and most of its peers over the longer term, returning an annual average of 6.1% in NAV terms over the 10 years ended 31 March 2024, versus an average market gain of 5.8% pa. The trust’s managers view UK equities as very attractively priced at current levels and expect the portfolio’s quality holdings to outperform as and when UK stocks return to favour with investors.
Maintaining a long-term record of growing dividends
|
|
Source: LSEG, Edison Investment Research. *The board has indicated that the FY24 dividend will total at least 38.0p per share.
|
■
Those seeking a regular, competitive and rising income will appreciate MUT’s commitment to its policy of annually increasing dividends, delivered via quarterly dividend payments and representing a prospective yield of 4.5%.
■
The trust’s good long-term performance track record of outright gains and outperformance of the market and most of its AIC peers should also interest potential investors.
■
MUT may appeal to investors seeking exposure to a diversified portfolio of high-quality, resilient, mainly UK stocks. The trust is diversified by sector and by income source: 80% of portfolio income is sourced from abroad, which provides significant protection from any deterioration in the UK’s economic climate. A programme of option writing provides a further modest, uncorrelated supplement to portfolio revenues.
Fifty years of dividend growth, and counting
MUT aims to provide investors with a high and growing dividend, combined with capital growth, through investment in a portfolio principally of UK equities. It has achieved both these objectives. Last year the company celebrated 50 years of rising dividend payments. The dividend for the financial year ended June 2023 (FY23) was 37.5p, a rise of 4.2% on the previous year (FY22: 36.0p). (See the chart above.)
Dividends are paid quarterly in December, March, June and September each year and the board has confirmed its intention to maintain annual dividend increases as ‘a priority for the future’. As announced in November 2023, the company has decided to take action to allow shareholders to access dividend income more quickly and more evenly throughout the year. This decision will smooth quarterly dividend payments and reflects in part the manager’s ongoing efforts to smooth portfolio income. The first three dividend payments for the year ended 30 June 2024 rise to 9.5p per share, compared to last year’s first three interim dividends of 8.25p per share. The fourth interim dividend for the year will be lower than last year’s 12.75p per share payment, but the board expects it will be ‘not be less than 9.5p per share, giving an expected total for the year of a minimum of 38.0p per share’, representing a rise of at least 1.3% on the FY23 dividend. Based on the current share price, this represents a prospective yield of 4.5%.
Long-term outperformance of the market and peers
MUT has also realised its objective to deliver capital growth. Over the 10 years ended 31 March 2024 the trust made an annual average return of 6.1% in NAV terms compared to the average annual benchmark return of 5.8%. On a share price basis, the trust returned an annual average of 5.3% over this period. MUT has also outperformed the average of its AIC UK Equity Income peers over both the short and the longer term, being ranked in the top three performers over 10 years (Exhibit 5). However, its quality bias has meant that more near-term performance has lagged the market slightly on an NAV basis, as value stocks have outperformed. Over the year to 31 March 2024, it returned 7.8%, versus a benchmark return of 8.4% (see the Performance section for details). The share price return over this period was 2.4%, widening the trust’s discount to NAV (see discussion below).
Quality to outperform when UK equities return to favour
MUT’s managers, Charles Luke and Iain Pyle, expect aggressive monetary tightening over the past 18 months to cause a slowdown in global economic growth in 2024, while abrdn analysts forecast zero GDP growth in the UK this year. They also expect further declines in inflation to allow the Bank of England to begin cutting rates from mid-year onwards.
However, this lacklustre economic outlook has not undermined the managers’ optimism about the prospects of the UK market and MUT, over both the short and longer term. In the near term, they expect the trust’s quality focus to protect returns through the forecast slowdown, as companies with pricing power, high margins and strong balance sheets are best placed to weather challenging economic conditions, while continuing to generate income.
Looking further ahead, Luke and Pyle argue that the UK market now looks ‘very cheap’ compared to its own history and relative to international markets. They point to the fact that apart from the global financial crisis of 2008/09, the UK market’s P/E multiple of 10.8x is at a 30-year low. They attribute these low valuations to several factors including the sharp drop in UK equity holdings by UK pension funds over recent years, higher than expected UK inflation and interest rates, a lack of tech stocks in the UK market and the residual impact of Brexit, which is discouraging foreign investment.
Whatever the reasons for the current lack of interest in the UK market, MUT’s managers believe that at some point investors will come to appreciate the value it offers. Potential triggers for this improvement in market sentiment could include interest rate cuts, an easing in political uncertainty following the UK general election due sometime this year or a pick-up in M&A activity, which would send a clear signal to the broader investment community that some major investors see value in the market.
MUT’s managers nominate several additional factors they believe will eventually attract investors: the UK market’s dividend yield (4.0% as at end December 2023) is appealing versus regional equity markets; and dividend and earnings are also expected to grow strongly this year, despite subdued economic growth. The team cites an investor survey showing consensus forecasts of 9.2% dividend growth and 10.1% earnings growth for 2024. In short, for Luke and Pyle, the case for investing in the UK market is compelling and will eventually tempt investors to return. They expect MUT’s quality holdings to do better than others, as and when this tide turns.
Exposure to ‘unstoppable long-term trends’ another plus
Another factor supporting MUT’s longer-term prospects is its exposure to several ‘unstoppable long-term trends’, which the managers expect to provide major tailwinds to earnings and dividend growth over the medium term. These trends include ageing populations, digital transformation, the transition to renewable energy and zero-carbon emissions and rising global wealth. (See our last note for details of the trust’s portfolio holdings that provide exposure to these themes.)
Unusually wide discount may be a good buying opportunity
MUT’s share price discount to its NAV has averaged around 5% over the past 10 years, although it is currently more than double this level, and close to its widest reading over the period (Exhibit 1). However, MUT is not alone in seeing its discount widen. Discounts across the investment trust sector have widened in the past year or more, including in the UK equity income sector. There are several possible reasons for this. As discussed above, UK equities are currently out of favour with investors, while high interest rates mean that for the first time in many years, cash and bonds offer relatively attractive, low risk returns.
MUT’s board has responded to this development by stepping up share buybacks to support the share price and reduce discount volatility. The trust repurchased 5.0m shares over FY23, amounting to 4.3% of shares in issue at the end of FY22 and it has repurchased a further 5.0m as at end March 2024, representing 4.5% of shares in issue.
These buybacks are accretive to the value of remaining shares, and should, over time, have a favourable impact on the discount. So too should any sustained improvement in MUT’s performance, and any improvement in investor sentiment regarding UK equities. There are therefore several reasons to suggest that the trust’s discount may, in time, move back towards its long-term average. So, for those who share the managers’ confidence in the longer-term prospects of the UK market, and MUT’s portfolio holdings, now might be a good time to invest.