Helios Underwriting — Direct Line deal and capacity update

Helios Underwriting (AIM: HUW)

Last close As at 14/01/2025

GBP1.98

−26.00 (−11.61%)

Market capitalisation

GBP144m

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Research: Financials

Helios Underwriting — Direct Line deal and capacity update

Helios Underwriting’s (Helios’s) share price rose by 7% in the past two months, driven by healthy syndicate underwriting capacity and net asset value (NAV) updates on 15 November and 18 December 2024, and a strong UK non-life insurance market. Aviva’s successful bid for Direct Line kicked off a series of re-ratings, with Direct Line up 66% in the past two months, driving the UK 350 Nonlife Insurance index up 8%. Helios initially re-rated strongly, supported by its successful resolution of share overhangs in 2024. Recent price pressure is likely linked to the Los Angeles (LA) fires, although initial indications are that Lloyd’s exposure is unlikely to be material. Despite guiding a 5% reduction in 31 December 2024 capacity from £512.1m to £484.1m, due to disposals in the annual auctions, its participation in syndicate pre-emptions of £15.6m and an upward capacity revaluation, has resulted in an 8% pro-forma increase in its 30 September 2024 NAV to 206p per share. We maintain our forecasts and valuation of 280p per share but flag upside potential on the NAV revaluation.

Marius Strydom

Written by

Marius Strydom

Analyst

Insurance

FY24 capacity updates

14 January 2025

Price 198.00p
Market cap £143m

Net cash/(debt) at 30 June 2024

£22.0m

Shares in issue

74.8m
Free float 48.4%
Code HUW
Primary exchange AIM
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance

Business description

Helios Underwriting was originally established in 2007, primarily to provide investors with a limited liability direct investment into the Lloyd’s insurance market. It is an AIM-quoted holding company, providing underwriting participation across a diversified portfolio of selected Lloyd’s syndicates via its subsidiaries and now also acts for third-party capital generating risk-free fee earning.

Analyst

Marius Strydom
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Helios Underwriting is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Year end Revenue (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (p) DPS (p) P/E (x) Yield (%)
12/23 214.9 22.1 21.56 6.00 9.2 3.0
12/24 324.2 26.4 27.25 19.64 7.3 9.9
12/25e 410.9 36.4 38.32 29.28 5.2 14.8
12/26e 419.0 30.0 31.63 27.05 6.3 13.7

Helios has guided 31 December 2024 capacity of £484.1m, down from £512.1m at the start of 2024. Following a management change, its strategy has pivoted from capacity growth to shareholder distribution, reflected in the disposal of £37.8m of capacity at recent auctions. These disposals were offset by the acquisition of £10.8m in new freehold capacity and mid-year support to existing syndicates of £5m, as well as its take-on of £15.6m of pre-emption capacity from existing syndicates. Expected year-end capacity also includes the £7m acquisition of Hyde Park Capital at a discount to the Humphrey valuation. In line with Helios’s hybrid fee-earning strategy, capacity allocated to third-party providers is expected to increase by 36% at year-end, while retained capacity will decline by 18% to £326.8m. This should lower capital requirements, which could bode well for distributions in 2025.

These developments had a positive impact on pro-forma NAV, compared to the 30 June 2024 value of £140.7m (191p/share). The take-on of pre-emption capacity, profit made on the disposal of capacity in the auctions and a positive revaluation of capacity (based on auction prices) has resulted in an 8% increase in the pro-forma NAV to 206p per share, which was maintained as at 30 September 2024.

While we have not made changes to our forecasts or valuation for Helios on the back of the above news, we note that our valuation of 280p per share now represents a reduced premium to 30 September 2024 NAV of 36%, compared to the 48% premium based on the previously disclosed 30 June 2024 NAV.

The Helios share price may continue to benefit from higher valuations ascribed to UK non-life insurance stocks and could recoup recent losses if preliminary expectations around LA fire exposure not being material, bears out.

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This report has been commissioned by Helios Underwriting and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Helios Underwriting. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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