PSI Software — Energetic results across the grid

PSI Software (PSAN)

Last close As at 21/11/2024

11.96

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

188m

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Research: TMT

PSI Software — Energetic results across the grid

PSI Software (PSI) develops and integrates process control software solutions for energy grid operators, manufacturing and logistics. Business in the first nine months of 2021 (9M21) rebounded from the COVID-19-affected prior-year period, with sales and new orders increasing, while multiple key initiatives and acquisitions should support results throughout Q421 and beyond. Successfully executing its transition to a software product provider, reversing the decline in its international business and expanding its margins could drive multiple expansion.

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Written by

TMT

PSI Software

Energetic results across the grid

Software

Deutsches Eigenkapitalforum 2021

4 November 2021

Price

€42.4

Market cap

€665m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

PSAN

Shares outstanding

15.7m

Net cash at 30 September 2021

€19.9m

Business description

PSI Software, headquartered in Berlin, is the parent company of PSI Group, which develops and integrates process control software solutions and complete systems for optimising the flow of energy and materials for utilities (energy networks, energy trading, public transport etc) and industry (mining, metals production, automotive, mechanical engineering, logistics etc).

Bull

Exposure to expanding renewable energy and electrical auto and bus industries.

Strong domestic market position.

Sales recovering substantially after the COVID-19-affected 2020.

Bear

Slow recovery in steel businesses.

Geopolitical and economic uncertainties affecting international sales, as the geographical mix has been steadily decreasing (international sales: 36% in FY20, 41% in FY19, 42% in FY18).

Operating margins at about 50% of peers.

Analyst

Ken Mestemacher

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

PSI Software (PSI) develops and integrates process control software solutions for energy grid operators, manufacturing and logistics. Business in the first nine months of 2021 (9M21) rebounded from the COVID-19-affected prior-year period, with sales and new orders increasing, while multiple key initiatives and acquisitions should support results throughout Q421 and beyond. Successfully executing its transition to a software product provider, reversing the decline in its international business and expanding its margins could drive multiple expansion.

9M21: Encouraging rebound from COVID-19

Results of 9M21 were encouraging; revenues grew 12%, new orders rose 10%, EBIT rebounded 77% and earnings per share increased 87% versus 9M20. Revenue growth was seen across the company, as demand for the grid business, electrical bus software and business systems was strong. While numerous customers did indicate for new orders, COVID-19-related supply bottlenecks and shortages negatively affected PSI, as not all Q321 orders materialised as expected and many were postponed. Nevertheless, PSI reiterated its expectation to exceed its FY21 EBIT target of €20m.

Intelligent software for energy and production control

PSI operates two segments: Energy Management (EM) (55% of 9M21 revenues, c 6% EBIT margins), which provides intelligent software and solutions for energy grid operators and public transport; and Production Management (45% of 9M21 revenues, c 13% EBIT margins), which offers software products and solutions for production planning, production control and logistics. The integration of a rising share of renewable energy into increasingly complex electrical grids and the demand for electrical buses continue to drive EM results. The ongoing migration of products to the cloud and investments in B2B technology are resulting in a greater share of revenues from maintenance and upgrades.

Execution and margins key to multiple expansion

PSI’s shares are up 72% ytd, although it trades level with peers at c 16x FY22e consensus EV/EBITDA. Key catalysts for multiple expansion include PSI successfully executing its transition from a service-oriented IT provider to a software product provider (thus growing more higher margin recurring revenue from maintenance and upgrades), expanding its international business and boosting overall operating margins to c 15–20%, in line with peers.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

EBITDA
(€m)

EBIT
(€m)

EBIT margin (%)

EPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

12/19

225.2

29.1

17.2

7.6%

0.91

46.6

22.2

12/20

217.8

26.4

15.0

6.8%

0.66

64.2

24.5

12/21e

242.0

36.4

23.6

9.7%

1.07

39.6

17.7

12/22e

260.5

40.5

27.9

10.7%

1.27

33.4

15.9

Source: Company, Refinitiv

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has prepared and issued by Edison. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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