Carr’s Group — Entry into nuclear defence segment

Carr’s Group (LSE: CARR)

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Research: Industrials

Carr’s Group — Entry into nuclear defence segment

Carr’s Group has announced the acquisition of Cumbria-based NW Total Engineered Solutions for a total cash consideration of up to £9.6m. The acquisition fulfils management’s ambition of taking the Engineering division into the nuclear defence segment. We expect it will be earnings enhancing from FY20 onwards and raise our indicative valuation from 182p/share to 184p/share.

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Written by

Industrials

Carr's Group

Entry into nuclear defence segment

Acquisition

Basic materials

4 July 2019

Price

157p

Market cap

£144m

Net debt (£m) at 2 March 2019

23.3

Shares in issue

91.9m

Free float

84.5%

Code

CARR

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

2.3

10.3

5.1

Rel (local)

(3.1)

7.8

5.8

52-week high/low

173p

130p

Business description

Carr’s Agriculture division serves farmers in the North of England, South Wales, the Welsh Borders and Scotland, the US, Germany and New Zealand. The Engineering division offers remote-handling equipment and fabrications to the global nuclear and oil and gas industries.

Next events

IMS

17 July 2019

Analyst

Anne Margaret Crow

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Carr's Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Carr’s Group has announced the acquisition of Cumbria-based NW Total Engineered Solutions for a total cash consideration of up to £9.6m. The acquisition fulfils management’s ambition of taking the Engineering division into the nuclear defence segment. We expect it will be earnings enhancing from FY20 onwards and raise our indicative valuation from 182p/share to 184p/share.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

08/17

346.2

11.9

9.4

4.0

16.7

2.5

08/18

403.2

17.7

15.2

4.5

10.3

2.9

08/19e

418.8

18.1

15.2

4.7

10.3

3.0

08/20e

434.6

19.4

16.4

4.9

9.6

3.1

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Complementary to existing engineering activity

NW Total designs and manufactures bespoke process equipment packages and provides onsite technical support, installation and condition monitoring services to the nuclear defence, nuclear power generation and decommissioning markets. The acquisition enhances the Engineering division’s offer for the nuclear industry, adding specialist services such as condition monitoring and staff authorised to work on highly regulated sites such as Sellafield. The deal extends the customer base in the UK and provides opportunities for cross-selling, with NW Total designing complex fabrications such as pressure vessels and heat exchangers and the existing UK businesses manufacturing them. The former owners will remain with the business post-acquisition. As with previous acquisitions, Carr’s intends to invest in the newly acquired business, recruiting staff to support business development and drive operating efficiency improvements.

Earnings enhancing

The initial consideration payable is £6.0m, with a performance-related deferred consideration of up to £3.6m payable over the next three years. The initial consideration will be funded by an additional term loan facility of £6.0m, with the deferred element self-financed. For the year ended March 2019, NW Total reported £9.1m revenues and £1.5m profit before tax. Despite the costs associated with the additional staff, management expects the acquisition to be earnings enhancing in its first full year of ownership.

Valuation: Indicative valuation of 184p/share

Our DCF analysis gives an indicative value of 184p/share (previously 182p/share). At the current share price, Carr’s is trading below its peers with regards to mean EV/EBITDA (6.3x vs 8.2x) and mean P/E (9.6x vs 13.3x) for the year ending August 2020. Clarity on trading arrangements post-Brexit (although Carr’s Group’s geographic reach and diversity reduces exposure to restrictions on lamb exports) and news of further contracts to replenish Wälischmiller’s order book should, in our view, help close the valuation gap compared with the mean.

Changes to estimates

We update our estimates to reflect the following:

An additional £9.1m revenues attributable to NW Total in FY20 and FY21

An additional £0.7m EBITA attributable to NW Total in FY20 and FY21. This is less than the £1.5m profit before tax for the year ended March 2019 because of the additional staff Carr’s plans to add and because the former owners, which are staying with the business, were previously paid through a dividend arrangement.

Initial consideration for NW Total of £6.0m payable in FY19 and payments of deferred consideration of £1.2m in both FY20 and FY21.

Additional £6.0m term loan to fund acquisition.

£0.2m reduction in FY20 Agriculture EBITDA to reflect uncertainty regarding the impact of Brexit on UK farm incomes.

Exhibit 1: Revisions to estimates

FY19e

FY20e

FY21e

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

Agriculture revenues (£m)

372.6

372.6

0.0%

378.2

378.2

0.0%

382.0

382.0

0.0%

Agriculture EBITA (£m)

13.4

13.4

0.0%

13.7

13.5

-1.5%

14.0

14.0

0.0%

Engineering revenues (£m)

46.2

46.2

0.0%

47.3

56.4

19.2%

48.5

57.6

18.8%

Engineering EBITA (£m)

4.6

4.6

0.0%

5.0

5.9

18.0%

5.3

6.1

14.2%

Group revenues (£m)

418.8

418.8

0.0%

425.5

434.6

2.1%

430.5

439.6

2.1%

Adjusted PBT (£m)

18.1

18.1

0.0%

18.9

19.4

2.6%

19.3

20.0

3.6%

EPS (p)

15.3

15.2

-0.1%

16.0

16.4

2.8%

16.4

16.9

3.0%

DPS (p)

4.7

4.7

0.0%

4.9

4.9

0.0%

5.1

5.1

0.0%

Net (cash)/debt (£m)

21.5

27.5

28.1%

20.7

28.7

38.9%

14.8

23.5

58.8%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation

Our valuation methodology is based on a DCF analysis, supplemented with a comparison of peer group multiples. We continue to use a conservative 10.0% WACC and a 1.0% terminal growth rate for our DCF calculation. This gives a fair value of 184p/share (previously 182p/share). The valuation gap should close once there is clarity on trading arrangements post-Brexit and news of further contracts to replenish Wälischmiller’s order book.

Exhibit 2: DCF analysis

Discount rate (post-tax, nominal)

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

Terminal growth

0.0%

191

180

169

160

151

1.0%

211

197

184

173

163

1.5%

223

207

193

181

170

2.0%

236

219

203

190

178

3.0%

270

247

228

211

196

Source: Edison Investment Research

In Exhibit 3, we compare Carr’s EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples for the years ended August 2019 and August 2020 with calendarised multiples for listed peers in the agricultural sector. At the current share price (157p), on our estimates Carr’s is trading below its peers with regards to the mean EV/EBITDA (6.3x vs 8.2x) and P/E (9.6x vs 13.3x) multiples for the year ending August 2020. At the indicative value of 184p/share derived from our DCF calculation, Carr’s implied EV/EBITDA multiple for the year ending August 2020 remains below the peer group mean (7.3x vs 8.2x), as does the P/E multiple (11.2x vs 13.3x).

Exhibit 3: Peer-based multiples

Name

Market cap (£m)

EV/EBITDA (x)
August 2019

EV/EBITDA (x)
August 2020

P/E (x)
August 2019

P/E (x)
August 2020

Anpario

77

11.7

10.6

19.0

17.9

BayWa

778

14.6

13.2

21.0

16.1

NWF Group

83

7.0

7.0

11.6

11.5

Origin Enterprises

558

9.7

9.4

9.7

9.3

Ridley Corporation

196

8.5

7.4

16.1

15.7

Wynnstay Group

63

6.9

6.4

10.2

9.4

Mean

8.7

8.2

14.6

13.3

Carr's Group at 157p/share

144

6.7

6.3

10.3

9.6

Carr's Group at 184p/share

169

7.7

7.3

12.1

11.2

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices at 1 July 2019. Grey shading indicates exclusion from mean.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

£m

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

Year-end Aug

Restated

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

346.2

403.2

418.8

434.6

439.6

EBITDA

 

 

13.9

19.9

20.9

22.2

22.9

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

9.8

15.4

16.3

17.5

18.2

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(0.1)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

Share-based payments

(0.5)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

Exceptionals

(1.3)

(0.8)

(0.2)

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

7.9

13.2

14.8

16.2

16.9

Net Interest

(0.7)

(0.9)

(1.3)

(1.2)

(1.2)

Share of post-tax profits in JVs and associates

2.8

3.2

3.0

3.0

3.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

11.9

17.7

18.1

19.4

20.0

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

10.0

15.5

16.6

18.1

18.7

Tax

(1.7)

(1.9)

(2.6)

(2.9)

(3.0)

Profit After Tax (norm)

9.9

15.6

15.5

16.5

17.1

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

8.3

13.6

13.9

15.2

15.7

Post tax profit (loss) relating to discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Minority interest

(1.3)

(1.8)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

Net income (norm)

8.6

13.9

14.0

15.0

15.6

Net income (FRS 3)

7.0

11.9

12.4

13.7

14.2

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

91.4

91.4

91.8

91.9

91.9

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

9.4

15.2

15.2

16.4

16.9

EPS

 

 

9.4

14.8

14.9

16.0

16.6

EPS - FRS 3 (p)

 

 

7.7

13.0

13.5

14.9

15.5

Dividend per share (p)

4.0

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.1

EBITDA Margin (%)

4.0

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.2

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

2.8

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

87.6

96.5

107.9

107.8

107.7

Intangible Assets

26.6

26.5

26.4

26.5

26.7

Tangible Assets, Deferred tax assets and Pension surplus

61.1

70.0

81.5

81.3

81.0

Current Assets

 

 

120.9

134.7

133.8

138.8

142.5

Stocks

37.0

42.4

47.0

52.4

53.0

Debtors

60.0

67.7

71.3

75.2

76.0

Cash

23.9

24.6

15.5

11.3

13.5

Current Liabilities

 

 

(73.9)

(99.5)

(83.7)

(83.2)

(81.0)

Creditors including tax, social security and provisions

(56.9)

(64.5)

(66.7)

(69.2)

(70.0)

Short term borrowings

(17.1)

(35.0)

(17.0)

(14.0)

(11.0)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(28.7)

(10.8)

(31.8)

(31.8)

(31.8)

Long term borrowings

(21.0)

(5.0)

(26.0)

(26.0)

(26.0)

Retirement benefit obligation

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long-term liabilities

(7.8)

(5.8)

(5.8)

(5.8)

(5.8)

Net Assets

 

 

105.9

121.0

126.2

131.7

137.4

Minority interest

(14.4)

(15.7)

(16.7)

(17.7)

(18.7)

Shareholders’ equity

 

 

91.5

105.3

109.5

114.0

118.8

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

15.1

15.0

14.9

15.5

22.3

Net Interest

(0.7)

(1.0)

(1.3)

(1.2)

(1.2)

Tax

(1.2)

(2.5)

(2.6)

(2.9)

(3.0)

Investment activities

(1.1)

(2.8)

(5.3)

(4.8)

(4.8)

Acquisitions/disposals

(13.2)

(4.2)

(14.8)

(3.5)

(3.5)

Equity financing and other financing activities

0.1

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(19.5)

(3.8)

(4.1)

(4.3)

(4.5)

Net Cash Flow

(20.4)

0.5

(13.3)

(1.2)

5.2

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(8.1)

14.1

15.4

27.5

28.7

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

1.9

1.7

(1.2)

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

14.1

15.4

27.5

28.7

23.5

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research


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This report has been commissioned by Carr's Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Carr's Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Carr's Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Carr's Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison’s policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Witan Investment Trust — Long-term outperformance from multi-managers

Witan Investment Trust’s (WTAN) investment director James Hart suggests that equities are currently an attractive asset class for the patient and selective investor. He believes that selectivity is becoming more important given the elevated valuation levels of parts of the equity market. The director argues that this plays to the strengths of WTAN’s multi-manager investment approach, with experienced managers that are able to take advantage of the evolving investment environment. Although relative performance was weaker than average in 2018, the trust has outperformed its composite benchmark over the last three, five and 10 years, while generating NAV and share price total returns between 11.0% and 15.0% pa over the last three, five and 10 years.

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