Esker — Update 21 October 2016

Esker (PAR: ALESK)

Last close As at 24/12/2024

EUR261.00

0.40 (0.15%)

Market capitalisation

EUR1,588m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

Esker — Update 21 October 2016

Esker

Katherine Thompson

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

TMT

Esker

Strong SaaS business, weaker legacy

Q3 revenue update

Software & comp services

21 October 2016

Price

€41.5

Market cap

€216m

$1.1:€1

Net cash (€m) at end H116

9.7

Shares in issue

5.2m

Free float

67%

Code

ALESK

Primary exchange

Alternext Paris

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

9.4

18.6

40.0

Rel (local)

6.9

13.3

44.1

52-week high/low

€43.29

€26.50

Business description

Esker provides end-to-end document automation solutions, offering on-premise and on-demand delivery models. The business generates 50% of revenues from Europe, 40% from the US and the remainder from Asia and Australia.

Next events

Q416 revenue update

January 2017

Analysts

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Bridie Barrett

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Esker is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Esker continues to see strong growth in its document process automation (DPA) business, particularly from its SaaS-based business. However, a larger than expected decline in legacy product sales in Q3 has prompted a more conservative outlook for the full year and we have revised our estimates to reflect this. In our view, the investment case for Esker rests on the success of the DPA business and in this respect we view the company as on track to continue to grow revenues and profitability.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/14

46.1

5.9

0.90

0.24

46.3

0.6

12/15

58.5

9.3

1.31

0.30

31.8

0.7

12/16e

66.0

10.9

1.50

0.33

27.7

0.8

12/17e

73.6

13.9

1.84

0.36

22.5

0.9

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised and diluted, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Q3 revenues – continued SaaS strength partially offset by legacy decline

Esker reported revenue growth of 10% for Q316 on both a reported and constant currency basis (constant currency organic growth Q2 14%, Q1 16%). Reported revenues for DPA grew 14% y-o-y whereas legacy product sales declined 11% y-o-y. DPA SaaS-based revenues grew 21% y-o-y (constant currency organic growth Q2 +24%, Q1 +20%). Recurring revenues exceeded 80% of the total.

Outlook and changes to estimates

Management expects to achieve organic growth of well over 10% for FY16. This is more conservative than the guidance for organic growth of 13-18% with H116 results, but we understand this is solely due to the drop in legacy product sales. We have revised our forecasts accordingly: FY16e revenues -1.4%, normalised EPS -8.1%; FY17e revenues -0.5%, normalised EPS -2.6%. Legacy product sales (mostly licences) have been in decline for several years and Esker has not focused any investment on this part of the business for some time, expecting it to eventually reduce to zero. From quarter-to-quarter these sales are relatively unpredictable, but as they make up a reducing proportion of the business (6% of Q316 revenues vs 10% a year ago), this should reduce the effect on group profitability.

Valuation: Reflects high level of recurring revenues

On an EV/sales and P/E basis, Esker is trading at a premium to document process automation (DPA) software companies and French small-cap software companies; in our view this is justified by forecast revenue growth and operating margins that are higher than both groups. In our view, the transition to SaaS is likely to suppress operating margins across the software sector (even after transition costs are taken into account). Esker is ahead of many peers in making this transition and is generating strong growth and margins. The company has recurring revenues of c 80%, which provides a high level of revenue and cash flow predictability.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

€'000s

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Year end 31 December

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

40,260

41,116

46,061

58,457

66,000

73,571

EBITDA

 

 

6,637

6,598

8,979

13,405

15,376

18,516

Operating Profit (before amort and except)

 

 

4,265

3,883

5,700

9,257

10,656

13,616

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

0

0

(302)

(500)

(500)

Exceptionals and other income

(16)

60

53

(245)

(174)

0

Other income

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

4,249

3,943

5,753

8,710

9,982

13,116

Net Interest

38

6

220

(6)

100

100

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

4,303

3,889

5,920

9,312

10,904

13,864

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

4,287

3,949

5,973

8,765

10,230

13,364

Tax

(1,286)

(761)

(1,323)

(2,292)

(2,558)

(3,341)

Profit After Tax (norm)

3,012

3,140

4,609

6,877

8,178

10,398

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

3,001

3,188

4,650

6,473

7,673

10,023

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

4.7

4.7

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.3

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

64

67

97

138

159

194

EPS - normalised diluted (c)

 

 

60

62

90

131

150

184

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

64

68

97

130

149

187

Dividend per share (c)

14.00

18.00

24.00

30.00

33.00

36.00

Gross margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA Margin (%)

16.5

16.0

19.5

22.9

23.3

25.2

Operating Margin (before GW and except) (%)

10.6

9.4

12.4

15.8

16.1

18.5

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

8,764

9,437

12,552

25,184

25,914

26,682

Intangible Assets

5,521

6,458

7,709

19,603

20,534

21,552

Tangible Assets

2,835

2,450

4,470

4,985

4,784

4,534

Other

408

529

373

596

596

596

Current Assets

 

 

24,358

26,834

33,894

36,110

43,609

52,846

Stocks

100

89

93

161

161

161

Debtors

11,567

12,144

15,110

18,073

19,891

22,172

Cash

11,393

13,411

17,559

16,295

21,976

28,932

Other

1,298

1,190

1,132

1,581

1,581

1,581

Current Liabilities

 

 

(15,551)

(16,164)

(19,827)

(24,789)

(26,711)

(28,639)

Creditors

(15,551)

(16,164)

(19,827)

(24,789)

(26,711)

(28,639)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(2,019)

(1,450)

(5,113)

(7,317)

(7,317)

(7,317)

Long term borrowings

(2,019)

(1,450)

(5,113)

(7,317)

(7,317)

(7,317)

Other long term liabilities

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Assets

 

 

15,552

18,657

21,506

29,188

35,495

43,571

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

6,163

6,539

9,245

14,307

15,480

18,163

Net Interest

122

90

310

(27)

100

100

Tax

(1,366)

(645)

(1,075)

(1,165)

(2,558)

(3,341)

Capex

(3,548)

(3,434)

(4,028)

(3,909)

(5,951)

(6,168)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

22

(11,700)

0

0

Financing

400

628

(694)

1,324

159

0

Dividends

(550)

(659)

(877)

(1,208)

(1,550)

(1,798)

Net Cash Flow

1,221

2,519

2,903

(2,378)

5,681

6,956

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(8,526)

(9,354)

(11,961)

(12,446)

(8,978)

(14,659)

HP finance leases initiated

(393)

0

(2,293)

(1,090)

0

0

Other

(0)

88

(125)

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(9,354)

(11,961)

(12,446)

(8,978)

(14,659)

(21,615)

Source: Esker, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Esker and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Esker and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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