Esker — Update 26 January 2016

Esker (PAR: ALESK)

Last close As at 22/11/2024

EUR260.00

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

EUR1,576m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

Esker — Update 26 January 2016

Esker

Katherine Thompson

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

TMT

Esker

Strong underlying growth drives upgrades

FY15 revenue update

Software & comp services

27 January 2016

Price

€29.0

Market cap

€148m

$0.92:€1

Net cash (€m) at end FY15

11.6

Shares in issue

5.1m

Free float

82%

Code

ALESK

Primary exchange

Alternext Paris

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(5.5)

(6.4)

52.9

Rel (local)

0.8

4.2

63.2

52-week high/low

€31.3

€17.9

Business description

Esker provides end-to-end document automation solutions, offering on-premise and on-demand delivery models. The business generates 50% of revenues from Europe, 40% from the US and the remainder from Asia and Australia.

Next event

FY15 results

22 March 2016

Analysts

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Bridie Barrett

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Esker is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Esker’s FY15 revenue update confirmed that strong growth continued into Q415, with full year revenue growth of 27% and organic constant currency growth of 13%. The company expects strong growth to continue in FY16 – we have upgraded our forecasts to reflect this, with EPS upgrades of 10% in FY15e and 13% in FY16e.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/13

41.1

3.9

0.62

0.18

46.8

0.6

12/14

46.1

5.9

0.90

0.24

32.2

0.8

12/15e

58.5

10.3

1.47

0.26

19.7

0.9

12/16e

64.4

11.7

1.59

0.28

18.2

1.0

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

FY15 revenue beat; positive FY16 outlook

Esker expects to report 27% revenue growth for FY15 (13% organic constant currency), compared to our forecast for 24% growth. Q415 revenues grew 23% (10% organic constant currency), representing a record quarter and year for revenues. SaaS-based revenues made up 72% of FY15 revenues, up from 66% in FY14. Net cash at year-end stood at €11.6m compared to our €6.0m forecast. The company expects to be able to generate double-digit revenue growth in FY16, which implies revenues of at least €64.3m versus our €60.8m forecast.

Revenue and EPS upgrades

We have upgraded our forecasts to reflect the strong performance in FY15 and the guidance for FY16. We upgrade FY16 revenue by 6% to €64m, equating to 10%
y-o-y growth. We assume the company continues to invest in growth and have increased our headcount assumptions for both years. We now forecast an EBITDA margin of 24.2% (up from 23.2%) and upgrade EPS by 10.3% in FY15; in FY16 we upgrade our EBITDA margin from 23.5% to 24.4% and upgrade EPS by 13.1%. We note that with c 40% of revenues but a smaller proportion of costs generated in the US, Esker’s profitability is sensitive to changes in the US$/€ exchange rate.

Valuation: Positive momentum supports upside

On our revised forecasts, Esker trades on a P/E of 18.2x FY16e EPS, at a discount to global software companies with DPA offerings (despite better profitability) and at a small premium to French small-cap software peers (consistent with its superior profitability). With nearly 80% recurring revenues, Esker has good visibility for FY16, and recent acquisitions have broadened the company’s product offering. The company has a strong balance sheet, providing funds for further acquisitions and product development, and supporting growth on a medium-term basis.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

€'000s

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015e

2016e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

32,704

36,278

40,260

41,116

46,056

58,504

64,447

EBITDA

 

 

3,819

6,041

6,637

6,598

8,979

14,187

15,748

Operating Profit (before amort and except)

 

 

1,973

3,810

4,265

3,883

5,700

10,237

11,598

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

0

0

0

0

(429)

(500)

Exceptionals and other income

(123)

(209)

(16)

60

53

0

0

Other income

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

1,850

3,601

4,249

3,943

5,753

9,808

11,098

Net Interest

250

96

38

6

220

100

100

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

2,223

3,906

4,303

3,889

5,920

10,337

11,698

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

2,100

3,697

4,287

3,949

5,973

9,908

11,198

Tax

(219)

(1,057)

(1,286)

(761)

(1,323)

(2,477)

(2,800)

Profit After Tax (norm)

2,004

2,849

3,012

3,140

4,609

7,753

8,774

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

1,881

2,640

3,001

3,188

4,650

7,431

8,399

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.8

5.0

5.2

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

44

62

64

67

97

156

168

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

42

60

60

62

90

147

159

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

42

58

64

68

97

149

161

Dividend per share (c)

8.00

12.00

14.00

18.00

24.00

26.00

28.00

Gross margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA Margin (%)

11.7

16.7

16.5

16.0

19.5

24.2

24.4

Operating Margin (before GW and except) (%)

6.0

10.5

10.6

9.4

12.4

17.5

18.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

6,190

7,667

8,764

9,437

12,552

25,073

25,523

Intangible Assets

3,892

4,501

5,521

6,458

7,709

20,130

20,480

Tangible Assets

2,017

2,769

2,835

2,450

4,470

4,570

4,670

Other

281

397

408

529

373

373

373

Current Assets

 

 

21,243

23,518

24,358

26,834

33,894

34,226

42,357

Stocks

88

89

100

89

93

93

93

Debtors

10,160

11,030

11,567

12,144

15,110

17,952

19,069

Cash

9,213

10,847

11,393

13,411

17,559

15,049

22,063

Other

1,782

1,552

1,298

1,190

1,132

1,132

1,132

Current Liabilities

 

 

(14,664)

(15,469)

(15,551)

(16,164)

(19,827)

(23,131)

(24,708)

Creditors

(14,664)

(15,469)

(15,551)

(16,164)

(19,827)

(23,131)

(24,708)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(1,935)

(2,321)

(2,019)

(1,450)

(5,113)

(8,113)

(8,113)

Long term borrowings

(1,935)

(2,321)

(2,019)

(1,450)

(5,113)

(8,113)

(8,113)

Other long term liabilities

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Assets

 

 

10,834

13,395

15,552

18,657

21,506

28,055

35,059

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

4,055

5,362

6,163

6,539

9,245

14,649

16,208

Net Interest

295

138

122

90

310

100

100

Tax

(451)

(544)

(1,366)

(645)

(1,075)

(2,477)

(2,800)

Capex

(2,159)

(2,502)

(3,548)

(3,434)

(4,028)

(5,000)

(5,100)

Acquisitions/disposals

(42)

(116)

0

0

22

(11,559)

0

Financing

369

378

400

628

(694)

0

0

Dividends

0

(365)

(550)

(659)

(877)

(1,223)

(1,395)

Net Cash Flow

2,067

2,351

1,221

2,519

2,903

(5,510)

7,014

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(5,609)

(7,278)

(8,526)

(9,354)

(11,961)

(12,446)

(6,936)

HP finance leases initiated

(463)

(1,074)

(393)

0

(2,293)

0

0

Other

65

(29)

(0)

88

(125)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(7,278)

(8,526)

(9,354)

(11,961)

(12,446)

(6,936)

(13,950)

Source: Esker, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (www.fsa.gov.uk/register/firmBasicDetails.do?sid=181584). Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Esker and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

More on Esker

View All

Latest from the TMT sector

View All TMT content

AFH Financial Group — Update 25 January 2016

AFH Financial Group

Continue Reading

Subscribe to Edison

Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.

Sign up for free