Market outlook: Robust medium-term growth expected
While falling short of the government’s 6.7% target, Vietnam’s GDP growth reached 6.2% in 2016, above the 6.0% pa growth rate of the previous 10 years and only modestly below the 6.7% achieved in 2015. The shortfall was primarily due to the mining sector’s steep 6.0% decline, affected by weak commodity prices, and the effect of poor weather on the agricultural sector. Manufacturing remained a key economic driver, recording 11.9% growth, its highest rate in seven years, while the services sector, which represents the largest component of GDP at 41.8%, achieved 7.0% growth, its highest rate in five years, indicating strong domestic demand. The Vietnamese economy appears set to maintain a similar rate of growth over the medium term, reflected by the IMF’s April 2017 projection for 6.3% pa GDP growth between 2017 and 2022, which is in line with the emerging and developing Asia region as a whole and well ahead of growth expectations for advanced economies, as illustrated in Exhibit 2.
Exhibit 2: Real GDP growth – Vietnam versus developing Asia and advanced economies
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Source: IMF April 2017 WEO, Edison Investment Research
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Vietnam recorded a US$2.7bn trade surplus in 2016, with total exports rising 8.6% to US$176bn, below the government’s 10% target, due to the slowdown in global trade and a decline in export prices. The value of crude oil exports fell 37%; excluding oil, total exports grew by 11.8%. The US remained Vietnam’s largest export market at 21.7%, followed by the EU at 19.3%. Imports rose 4.6% to US$173.3bn in 2016, with China remaining Vietnam’s largest import partner at 28.7%, although the trade deficit with China declined by 15% to US$28bn.
While President Trump’s decision that the US should withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was unwelcome, given the boost that this agreement had been expected to give Vietnam’s economy, other trade deals present opportunities. Vietnam has free trade agreements with the EU, Japan and Korea, and is currently negotiating deals with the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP, comprising the 10 ASEAN states plus China, India, Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand) and Hong Kong. The RCEP deal could have a significant effect on Vietnam’s economic growth, as 42.3% of exports go to RCEP member states, compared with 38.8% to TPP members. Vietnam’s competitive labour cost, geography and improving infrastructure have been encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI), with disbursed FDI rising 9% in 2016 to US$15.8bn, the highest level on record.
Vietnam’s budget deficit reached 5.5% in 2016, which was higher than the government’s 4.9% target, primarily due to lower-than-expected nominal GDP growth. A steady 5.5% fiscal deficit has increased public debt, with the World Bank estimating that debt reached 64.1% at end-2016, close to the 65% debt ceiling set by Vietnam’s National Assembly. This represents a challenge for the government but encourages SOE reform, with receipts from privatisation and divestment of state assets reducing planned government borrowing to US$15bn in 2017 versus US$20bn in 2016.
The Vietnamese stock market has delivered a strong performance in both absolute and relative terms over the last five years, with the VN Index rising by 143% in sterling terms, outperforming the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index by 28% (Exhibit 3 left-hand chart). A 10-year view provides a different perspective, with the VN Index slower to recover following the 2008 global financial crisis and returning only 24% over this longer period, substantially underperforming the 133% return of the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index (Exhibit 3 right-hand chart). The VN Index fell 68% from end-October 2007 to end-October 2008, reflecting the 39% decrease in CY08 EPS. This compares with a 65% decline for the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index over the same period, with a 35% decrease in CY08 EPS. While VN Index EPS bounced back sharply, recording a 74% increase in CY09 and 14% rise in CY10, the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index EPS was slower to recover, registering a 14% rise in CY09 and 51% increase in CY10. Both indices then saw a subdued period for earnings between CY10 and CY16, with the VN Index recording a 1.5% pa EPS decline and the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index a 1.2% pa EPS decline.
The similarity of the VN Index’s EPS progression to that of the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index from CY08 to CY16 contrasts with the wide difference in relative performance of the two indices over the same period and suggests that scope exists for the more recent outperformance of the Vietnamese stock market to continue, given the similarity of Vietnam’s economic growth prospects to the wider emerging and developing Asia region.
Exhibit 3: Vietnam VN Index performance vs MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index in sterling terms
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Total return performance comparison over five years |
Total return performance comparison over 10 years |
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Source: Bloomberg, Edison Investment Research. Note: Data to 24 July 2017.
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Over five years, Bloomberg data shows that the VN Index forward P/E multiple has risen from 9.9x to 15.4x and, having declined considerably from its August 2016 high of 17.5x, it now stands at a 8.6% premium to the broader MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index’s 14.1x forward P/E multiple (Exhibit 4 left-hand chart), modestly lower than the 13.3% average premium over the last three years. The VN Index’s higher rating reflects its superior earnings growth, with Bloomberg figures showing 1.3% pa reported EPS growth from CY13 to CY16 compared with a 4.1% pa decline for the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index. Bloomberg figures also show forecast EPS growth for the VN Index of 21% for CY17 and 15% for CY18 versus 19% and 10% respectively for the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index.
Considering a wider range of valuation metrics, as shown in Exhibit 4 (right-hand table), Datastream data shows that, while the Vietnamese market’s dividend yield is below its 10-year average and its price to book multiple is above its 10-year average, return on equity is below its longer-term average, suggesting scope for returns to improve. Given Vietnam’s positive medium-term economic outlook and the favourable backdrop that this provides for corporate earnings growth prospects, the market valuation does not appear overstretched.
Exhibit 4: Vietnamese market valuation metrics
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VN Index forward P/E multiple vs MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index |
DS-Vietnam market valuation metrics |
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Last |
High |
Low |
10-year average |
Last as % of average |
P/E 12 months forward (x) |
14.4 |
16.8 |
9.1 |
12.0 |
119.3 |
Price to book (x) |
2.5 |
5.9 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
117.2 |
Dividend yield (%) |
2.6 |
5.7 |
0.3 |
3.1 |
85.6 |
Return on equity (%) |
13.5 |
19.3 |
11.2 |
15.0 |
90.0 |
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Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Datastream, Edison Investment Research. Note: Data to 24 July 2017.
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VEIL’s investment manager emphasises that the valuation of the top 50 stocks in their investible universe is lower than the VN Index, noting that at 15 June 2017, the forward P/E multiple of these top 50 stocks in aggregate was 13.9x, with forecast EPS growth of 17.3% in 2017. This compares with Bloomberg’s forward P/E multiples of 15.1x for the VN Index and 13.5x for the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index at the same date. In comparison with other stock markets in the Asian region, the manager’s analysis indicates that the Vietnamese market is trading below Bloomberg’s 14x to 21x forward P/E multiple range for Sri Lanka, China, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Indonesia and the Philippines, with only Pakistan trading at a lower multiple (9x). Against this, the manager highlights that the Vietnamese market’s earnings growth prospects are above Credit Suisse’s forecast 1.5% to 17.0% range for China, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Philippines and Malaysia, and similar to Indonesia’s c 17.5% forecast growth, with only Sri Lanka forecast to see higher EPS growth (24%).
Other factors that look set to contribute positively to Vietnam’s market development over the next 12 months include accelerated SOE reform, with the government scheduled to divest its holdings in a number of companies including conglomerates Satra Group and Ben Thanh Group, and water utility Sawaco; as well as progress towards a more effective relaxation of FOLs. To date in 2017, the government has reduced its holding in Vietnam’s largest importer and distributor of oil products, Petrolimex, on its listing on the HSX (Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange), and has reduced its stake from 75% to 55% in state-owned construction materials manufacturer Viglacera, through the auction of new shares. Further potential government divestments include hotel operator Saigon Tourist, oil refiner Binh Son Refining and fuel retailer PV Oil. There are also a number of privately owned companies that are expected to list or place shares over the next 12-18 months, including Vietnam Prosperity Bank and Techcom Bank, which both have an estimated book value of c US$900m. Securities laws were changed in September 2015 to remove a blanket 49% FOL, increasing the FOL in many sectors to 100%, with FOLs of 30% to 65% remaining in 12 specific business sectors. However, other laws need to be amended so that domestic companies with more than 50% foreign ownership are not subjected to the same regulations as foreign companies. Further amendments to Vietnam’s securities laws addressing FOLs are currently expected in mid- to late-2018. The government is now considering raising the 30% FOL for banks, one of seven sectors where Vietnam has made foreign ownership restriction commitments to the WTO.
In summary, while there are near-term risks relating to developments in China, management of Vietnam’s fiscal balance and the progress of government reforms, the medium-term economic outlook provides a healthy environment for corporate earnings growth. In this context, the valuation of the Vietnamese stock market does not appear overstretched, leaving scope for the market to move higher through a combination of earnings growth and re-rating. Investors seeking access to this fast-growing frontier market could be attracted by a large, well-established fund with a focused equity portfolio, which is managed by a well-resourced investment team dedicated to the country.