Provaris Energy — European collaboration MOU signed

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Research: Industrials

Provaris Energy — European collaboration MOU signed

The memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed with Norwegian Hydrogen is the latest significant step in Provaris Energy’s development of a cost-effective green hydrogen (GH2) transportation solution for Europe. The first Norwegian commercial hydrogen export volumes are likely to become available around the time of Provaris’s H2Neo carrier’s maiden voyage in 2027, neatly linking with the European Union’s REPowerEU ambition to develop a hydrogen industry.

Andy Murphy

Written by

Andy Murphy

Director, Financials & Industrials

provarisdock

Industrials

Provaris Energy

European collaboration MOU signed

Important announcement

Industrial support services

18 January 2023

Price

A$0.05

Market cap

A$29m

A$1.43/US$

Net cash (A$m) at 30 June 2022

11.6

Shares in issue

548.3m

Free float

83%

Code

PV1

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

FRA

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

12.5

(6.9)

(46.0)

Rel (local)

(8.6)

(16.0)

(45.0)

52-week high/low

A$0.11

A$0.04

Business description

Provaris Energy is becoming a vertically integrated green hydrogen producer and supplier, combining production and compressed hydrogen shipping solutions for transporting energy from Australia to regional markets in South-East Asia and Europe.

Next events

Interim results

February 2023

Analysts

Andy Murphy

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Andrew Keen

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Provaris Energy is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

The memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed with Norwegian Hydrogen is the latest significant step in Provaris Energy’s development of a cost-effective green hydrogen (GH2) transportation solution for Europe. The first Norwegian commercial hydrogen export volumes are likely to become available around the time of Provaris’s H2Neo carrier’s maiden voyage in 2027, neatly linking with the European Union’s REPowerEU ambition to develop a hydrogen industry.

Year end

Revenue (A$m)

PBT*
(A$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/21

0.2

(3.1)

(0.7)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/22

0.4

(6.8)

(1.3)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/23e

0.3

(9.7)

(1.7)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/24e

0.3

(10.2)

(1.6)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Norwegian Hydrogen MOU speeds up development

Norwegian Hydrogen is a developer of GH2 projects with an industrial ownership base. Its aim is to develop GH2 production projects focused on the Nordics with a view to domestic supply and export. Norwegian Hydrogen’s foundation project, the Hellesylt Hydrogen Hub Pilot-E, is expected to be operational this year. The collaboration with Provaris will allow Norwegian Hydrogen to accelerate its plans to scale-up production volumes of compressed hydrogen from multiple sites in the Nordic region to deliver to major European import hubs.

Government/EU support for H2 gathers momentum

Norway has a well-established hydrogen strategy that should see plans to scale-up activity by 2030 aligning it with the European Union’s REPowerEU ambition to produce 10mtpa and import a further 10mtpa of hydrogen. Intergovernmental and EU support for the development of low emission hydrogen production and the development of hydrogen demand is gathering momentum, with numerous financial support packages available to participants. The timeline for the development of Provaris Energy’s H2Neo GH2 carrier is an obvious transport solution to link the Norwegian GH2 export volumes with hydrogen import hubs in the EU.

Valuation: Each new announcement adds credibility

The MOU with Norwegian Hydrogen is the latest positive announcement from Provaris in its development following the class ‘design approval’ for the H2Neo from the American Bureau of Shipping in December. The next key milestone would be the signing of an offtake agreement, which would add even greater confidence to the commercial viability of Provaris’s ambitious projects. Our modelling, which produces internal rates of return of 9.7–18.7% from a range of scenarios and vessel sizes, remains robust. We would revisit this in the event of an offtake agreement being announced. We consider this as being likely, given the exponential growth in demand for GH2 forecast by the International Energy Agency.

Support for hydrogen development is immense

Provaris Energy’s newly announced MOU with Norwegian Hydrogen is another step towards the development of a new GH2 transportation solution for Europe. The development of GH2 production in the Nordics and consumption in Europe is being supported by both heads of state and the EU, as well as numerous commercial organisations, and Provaris’s H2Neo GH2 carrier would appear to be a perfect solution in terms of design and the timing of its maiden voyage in 2027.

MOU signed with Norwegian Hydrogen accelerates plans

Norwegian Hydrogen is a developer of GH2 projects and has an industrial ownership base that includes a number of Norwegian industrial companies as well as Mitsui of Japan. Its aim is to develop GH2 production projects focused on the Nordics with a view to domestic supply and export. The MOU establishes a framework for the two organisations to undertake a concept design study (to be published in H123), which will review identified sites and select a preferred location for domestic and export volumes of hydrogen, as well as undertake a technical and economic review for the production and supply of compressed GH2 to nominated European ports using Provaris Energy’s H2Neo carrier.

Norwegian Hydrogen’s foundation project, the Hellesylt Hydrogen Hub Pilot-E, is expected to be operational this year. The collaboration with Provaris will allow Norwegian Hydrogen to accelerate its plans to scale-up volumes of compressed hydrogen from multiple production sites in the Nordic region to major European import hubs.

Agreement aligns with Norwegian and EU ambition

Norway has a well-established hydrogen strategy and is also home to nearly 50% of Europe’s hydropower reservoir capacity. Towards 2030, the Norwegian government plans to scale-up activity, aligning it with the EU’s REPowerEU ambition to produce 10mtpa and import a further 10mtpa of hydrogen. The timeline for the development of Provaris Energy’s H2Neo carrier is an obvious transport solution to link the Norwegian GH2 export volumes with the identified hydrogen import hubs in Germany and the Netherlands, see Exhibit 1 below.

Exhibit 1: Potential supply markets for Norwegian GH2

Source: Provaris Energy

The H2Neo carrier can be demonstrated to be cost-effective over the relatively short sailing distances from Norway to Europe and the UK, when compared to alternative transportation modes.

To highlight the opportunity that exists, on 5 January 2023, the Norwegian and German governments announced a cooperation agreement to increase renewable energy and to develop green industry. The announcement included a joint declaration that includes partnership discussions on numerous subjects including: climate policy, hydrogen, renewable energy/offshore wind, negative emissions/carbon capture and storage, raw and processed materials and batteries, the maritime industry/green shipping and microelectronics.

On the back of the agreement mentioned above, Norwegian energy giant Equinor and German energy major RWE signed an agreement to work together to develop a large-scale value chain for low carbon hydrogen. This ambitious collaboration includes an aim to replace coal-fired power stations with hydrogen-ready gas-fired power plants in Germany and to build production of low-carbon and renewable hydrogen in Norway. Although the aim is to export the hydrogen via a pipeline, there are likely to be numerous opportunities for the use of Provaris Energy’s H2Neo vessels to link non-connected hydrogen production sites with either the pipeline or European ports.

The EU is clearly backing the development of initiatives to tackle climate change. Its key funding programme is the €95.5bn Horizon Europe initiative, which aims to support research and innovation into underpinning the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and boosting the EU’s competitiveness and growth. There are also plans to develop a €3bn European Hydrogen Bank, which is designed to assist with the build out of hydrogen markets, and an Important Project of Common European Interest, called IPCEI Hy2Use, which is expected to be publicly funded with up to €5.2bn from 13 member states including Germany, the Netherlands and France. The project is expected to attract an additional €7bn of private investments.

Membership of NORWEP enhances opportunities

In addition to the MOU mentioned above, Provaris recently joined Norwegian Energy Partners (NORWEP), an organisation with more than 300 partners/members that collectively represent more than 90% of Norway’s exports. Its aim is to support and assist its members internationalise their collective technology and industry. Provaris is already working with a number of NORWEP partners and it will use NORWEP to identify additional suitable partners as well as options for landing compressed GH2 into the EU’s developing hydrogen infrastructure.


Exhibit 2: Financial summary

June year end

A$m

2020

2021

2022

2023e

2024e

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

1.5

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.3

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(2.9)

(3.1)

(6.8)

(9.7)

(10.2)

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(2.9)

(3.1)

(6.8)

(9.7)

(10.2)

Reported tax

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(2.9)

(3.1)

(6.8)

(9.7)

(10.2)

Profit After Tax (reported)

(2.9)

(3.1)

(6.8)

(9.7)

(10.2)

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

(2.9)

(3.1)

(6.8)

(9.7)

(10.2)

Net income (reported)

(2.9)

(3.1)

(6.8)

(9.7)

(10.2)

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

393.5

417.3

512.9

579.5

648

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(0.7)

(0.7)

(1.3)

(1.7)

(1.57)

Revenue growth (%)

34.9

(84.0)

53.4

(29.2)

0.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

6.3

5.8

5.4

5.0

4.6

Intangible Assets

6.2

5.8

5.4

5.0

4.6

Tangible Assets

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Investments & other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

3.2

6.7

12.0

8.1

5.6

Stocks

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debtors

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.3

Cash & cash equivalents

3.1

6.6

11.6

7.7

5.3

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.8)

Creditors

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.8)

Other

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.1)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Assets

 

 

9.2

12.3

16.5

12.2

9.4

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

9.2

12.3

16.5

12.2

9.4

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Receipts from the ATO (Covid-19 cash boost)

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

Payments to suppliers and employees

(2.9)

(2.3)

(3.1)

(3.5)

(3.8)

Research and development

(0.1)

(0.0)

0.0

(3.0)

(3.0)

Project development

(1.0)

(0.5)

(1.9)

(2.5)

(2.8)

Interest received

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Interest paid for lease liabilities

(0.0)

(0.0)

0.0

(0.0)

1.0

Research and development tax concession rebate

1.4

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

WA Renewable Hydrogen Fund grant

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.3

Working capital

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Tax

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(2.5)

(2.6)

(4.8)

(8.8)

(8.3)

Capex

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Acquisitions/disposals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Equity financing

3.5

6.3

10.5

5.0

6.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.7)

(0.2)

(0.2)

Net Cash Flow

0.7

3.4

5.1

(3.9)

(2.4)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(2.4)

(3.1)

(6.6)

(11.6)

(7.7)

FX

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(3.1)

(6.6)

(11.6)

(7.7)

(5.3)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Provaris Energy and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Provaris Energy. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Provaris Energy and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Provaris Energy. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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