PDL BioPharma — Evofem shares distributed and Phexxi approved

PDL BioPharma (US: PDLI)

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Research: Healthcare

PDL BioPharma — Evofem shares distributed and Phexxi approved

PDL distributed its 26.7% Evofem stake to shareholders on 21 May 2020, just before the 22 May 2020 FDA approval for Evofem’s hormone-free contraceptive gel, Phexxi (the PDUFA date was 25 May). The timing of the distribution allowed investors the ability to decide whether or not to hold through the PDUFA and also provided a liquidity event to sell shares, if desired. Additionally, there will be a virtual shareholder meeting on July 16, 2020 at which shareholders will vote on the dissolution plan for the company. Ultimately, PDL believes that shareholders will receive between $3.00 and $6.00 per share once assets (including Evofem) are fully monetized.

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Healthcare

PDL BioPharma

Evofem shares distributed and Phexxi approved

Financial update

Pharma & biotech

27 May 2020

Price

US$3.33

Market cap

US$388m

Net cash ($m) at 31 March 2020
(plus repurchases)

119.2

Shares in issue

116.5m

Free float

89.3%

Code

PDLI

Primary exchange

NASDAQ

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

32.4

20.3

37.8

Rel (local)

25.6

25.3

30.2

52-week high/low

US$3.33

US$1.73

Business description

As of December 2019, PDL BioPharma has ceased to make additional strategic transactions and investments and is pursuing a formal process to unlock the value of its portfolio by monetizing its assets and ultimately distributing net proceeds to shareholders.

Next events

Shareholder meeting

July 2020

Analysts

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Wiktoria O’Hare

+1 646 653 7028

PDL BioPharma is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

PDL distributed its 26.7% Evofem stake to shareholders on 21 May 2020, just before the 22 May 2020 FDA approval for Evofem’s hormone-free contraceptive gel, Phexxi (the PDUFA date was 25 May). The timing of the distribution allowed investors the ability to decide whether or not to hold through the PDUFA and also provided a liquidity event to sell shares, if desired. Additionally, there will be a virtual shareholder meeting on July 16, 2020 at which shareholders will vote on the dissolution plan for the company. Ultimately, PDL believes that shareholders will receive between $3.00 and $6.00 per share once assets (including Evofem) are fully monetized.

Year end

Revenue ($m)

PBT*
($m)

EPS*
($)

DPS
($)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/18

198.1

78.8

0.45

0.0

7.4

N/A

12/19

54.8

(65.6)

(0.60)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/20e

11.7

(58.3)

(0.37)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/21e

32.6

(47.5)

(0.41)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

LENSAR sales down 11% in Q120

The LENSAR femtosecond cataract laser business had product revenue of $6.0m in Q120, down 11% compared to Q119 as March was weak due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Q2 will likely be especially difficult but with reopening starting later in the quarter, the company believes there is a potential to exit Q4 at pre-COVID-19 levels.

Phexxi approved

Evofem, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, is developing Phexxi (previously Amphora), a hormone-free contraceptive gel that could address a very large market. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 61.7% of the 60.9 million women aged 15–44 use contraception. Phexxi was approved on 22 May 2020 and is expected to launch in September.

Asset monetization proceeding

The asset monetization of the company’s assets is proceeding with a virtual shareholder meeting to vote on the company dissolution plan scheduled for 16 July 2020. The estimated value of the assets (including Evofem) for distribution to investors is approximately $350–700m (approximately $3.00–6.00 per share).

Valuation: $496m or $4.26 per share

We have adjusted our valuation of PDL to $496m or $4.26 per basic share from $689m or $5.57 per share mainly due to the removal of Evofem from our valuation (as the shares have been distributed). Additionally, the company reported lower net cash due to the repurchase of convertible notes and stock, and also there was a reduction in our valuation for LENSAR. We will revise our model further as the company progresses through the monetization process.

Q1 results

PDL reported revenues of $6.0m, which is down significantly from what was reported in prior quarters as the company has recategorized how it reports results. The vast majority of the company’s assets (such as Noden and the royalty assets) are now classified as assets held for sale and are counted as discontinued operations. Reported revenues now consists almost entirely of the results for LENSAR. LENSAR sales were down 11% compared to last year as COVID-19 had a major impact on cataract surgeries starting in March. The company reported that elective surgeries such as cataract surgeries have come to an ‘almost complete halt across the world’. Q2 will likely be especially difficult but with reopening starting later in the quarter, the company believes there is a potential to exit Q4 at pre-COVID-19 levels but that will of course depend on whether or not there is a second wave of COVID-19 cases and lockdowns later this year. Additionally, the pandemic will likely delay the disposition of the LENSAR asset, potentially into 2021, due to the uncertainty surrounding the business given the pandemic situation.

Revenues for the discontinued operations were $24.4m for the quarter, so total revenues would have been $30.4m without the reclassification. $15.0m of the $24.4m came from Noden, down 25% compared to the $20.0m reported in Q119 due to generic competition in the US. The rest ($9.4m) came from royalty rights, which was reduced by $6m to reflect the expected cost of selling the royalty assets.1

  PDL indicates that the asset held for sale classification required it to record the anticipated cost to sell the asset as a deduction to its carrying value.

PDL reported a net loss of $32.0m for Q120, which includes $18.7m in severance and retention payments and a $13.8m decrease in value of the Evofem asset due to a decrease in its stock price over the period.

Evofem distribution and approval

The company also distributed the 13.3m Evofem share equity stake (approximately 26.7% of the company) to shareholders on 21 May 2020 through a special one-time dividend. PDL investors received approximately 0.116 shares of Evofem for every share of PDL that is held. The company is not distributing the 3.3m warrants in Evofem and is continuing to pursue monetization of that asset. Importantly, on 22 May 2020, the FDA approved Evofem’s hormone-free contraceptive gel, Phexxi (the PDUFA date was 25 May 2020). PDL has stated the timing of the distribution was meant to allow investors to make their own decision on whether to hold through the FDA decision and also provided for a liquidity event close to the date of distribution.

As a reminder, Evofem is developing its first product candidate, Phexxi, from its proprietary Multipurpose Vaginal pH Regulator platform. Phexxi is a bioadhesive vaginal gel that is a mix of L-lactic acid, citric acid and potassium bitartrate, which are all compounds generally regarded as safe by the FDA and frequently found in food. A normal vaginal pH is acidic at 3.5–4.5 and the gel works by maintaining acidity in the presence of semen, keeping the environment inhospitable to sperm motility. Unlike much of the competition, Phexxi is non-hormonal and accordingly does not appear to have the same long-term safety concerns compared to hormone-based contraceptives.

Valuation

We have adjusted our valuation of PDL to $496m or $4.26 per basic share from $689m or $5.57 per share mainly due to the removal of Evofem from our valuation (as the Evofem shares have been distributed). Additionally, the company reported lower net cash due to the repurchase of convertible notes and stock, and also there was a reduction in our valuation for LENSAR. We will revise our model further as the company progresses through the monetization process.

Exhibit 1: PDL valuation table

Royalty/note

Type

Expiration year

PDL balance sheet carrying value ($m)

NPV
($m)

Assertio (formerly Depomed)

Royalty on Glumetza and other products

2024

$215.5

$216.3

VB

Royalty on Spine Implant

Undisclosed

$13.8

$12.6

University of Michigan

Royalty on Cerdelga

2022

$19.0

$10.6

Wellstat

Note (impaired)

Unknown

$50.2

$50.2

Hyperion

Note (impaired)

Unknown

$1.2

$1.2

LENSAR

Equity

N/A

$60.2

AcelRx

Royalty on Zalviso

2027

$13.5

$10.2

CareView

Note (impaired)

2022

$0.7

$0.7

Noden

Equity

N/A

$9.7

$14.5

Kybella

Royalty

Unknown

$0.6

$0.7

Total

 

 

 

$377

Net cash (Q120 including cash attached to assets held for sale less cash used in share buyback) ($m)

$119.2

Total firm value ($m)

$496

Total basic shares (m)

116.5

Value per basic share ($)

$4.26

Total options (m)

0.0

Total number of shares (m)

116.6

Diluted value per share ($)

$4.26

Source: Edison Investment Research

Financials

We have made changes to our estimates to conform with the company’s reclassification of most of its assets to assets held for sale and discontinued operations. Going forward our revenue estimates will consist of only LENSAR sales. Hence our 2020 revenue estimate is now $11.7m, down from $115.3m previously under the previous classification system. For 2021, our estimates have fallen from $126.0m to $32.6m. Note that our LENSAR estimate for 2020 assumes that revenues for the final three quarters of the year will be slightly less than the revenues of just the first quarter. However, we have kept our 2021 estimates for LENSAR roughly the same as before as the company expects a potential return to pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of the year. We have also kept our revenue estimates for the discontinued operations roughly the same for both 2020 and 2021.

PDL reported gross cash of $125.5m at the end of Q120 though importantly that does not include $21.3m in cash associated with assets held for sale (hence reported gross cash would have been $146.8m without the reclassification). During Q1, the company repurchased $19.2m in stock and $18.8m in debt. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, the company repurchased an additional 4.1m shares for $12.8m. The company currently has $14.8m in debt ($13.8m in principal due in December 2021 and $1.0m in principal due in December 2024), which it is carrying at $13.3m as there is a $1.5m unamortized discount of the liability component. We continue to believe PDL has enough capital to execute on its business plans.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

$000s

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

Year end 31 December

US GAAP

US GAAP

US GAAP

US GAAP

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

198,110

54,757

11,681

32,550

Cost of Sales

(48,460)

(53,619)

(5,134)

(13,020)

Gross Profit

149,650

1,138

6,546

19,530

General & Administrative

(62,559)

(54,080)

(57,329)

(59,622)

EBITDA

 

 

84,136

(60,250)

(58,318)

(47,628)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

84,136

(60,250)

(58,318)

(47,628)

Intangible Amortisation

(15,831)

(6,306)

(1,208)

(1,208)

Other

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(118,899)

(33,258)

(18,734)

0

Operating Profit

(50,594)

(99,814)

(78,260)

(48,836)

Net Interest

(5,328)

(5,374)

39

90

Other

0

31,448

(14,403)

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

78,808

(65,624)

(58,279)

(47,538)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(55,922)

(73,740)

(92,624)

(48,746)

Tax

(12,937)

3,049

14,473

0

Deferred tax

(0)

(0)

(0)

(0)

Profit After Tax (norm)

65,871

(62,575)

(43,806)

(47,538)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(68,859)

(70,691)

(78,151)

(48,746)

Minority interest

0

280

288

0

Profit After Tax less Minority Interest (FRS 3)

(68,859)

(70,411)

(77,863)

(48,746)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

145.7

118.6

118.1

116.5

EPS - normalised ($)

 

 

0.45

(0.60)

(0.37)

(0.41)

EPS - FRS 3 ($)

 

 

(0.47)

(0.59)

(0.66)

(0.42)

Dividend per share (c)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Gross Margin (%)

75.5

2.1

56.0

60.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

42.5

-110.0

-499.3

-146.3

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

42.5

-110.0

-499.3

-146.3

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

446,519

402,224

37,893

38,219

Intangible Assets

51,319

23,298

12,884

12,884

Tangible Assets

7,387

5,520

3,543

3,869

Royalty rights

376,510

266,196

0

0

Other

11,303

107,210

21,466

21,466

Current Assets

 

 

517,217

313,895

545,299

504,108

Stocks

0

0

0

0

Debtors

21,648

13,552

7,865

7,865

Cash

394,590

193,451

119,555

124,760

Other

100,979

106,892

417,879

371,482

Current Liabilities

 

 

(52,470)

(45,693)

(41,742)

(41,742)

Creditors

(13,142)

(17,370)

(5,229)

(5,229)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Other

(39,328)

(28,323)

(36,513)

(36,513)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(181,487)

(77,148)

(64,946)

(64,946)

Long term borrowings

(124,644)

(27,250)

(13,302)

(13,302)

Other long term liabilities

(56,843)

(49,898)

(51,644)

(51,644)

Net Assets

 

 

729,779

593,278

476,504

435,638

Minority Interests

0

0

0

0

Shareholder equity

 

 

729,779

593,278

476,504

435,638

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(13,425)

(32,443)

(65,403)

(48,746)

Net Interest

0

0

0

0

Tax

0

0

0

0

Capex

(4,523)

(2,463)

(372)

(326)

Acquisitions/disposals

57,969

79,272

0

0

Financing

0

0

0

0

Dividends

(48)

0

0

0

Other

(46,202)

(143,190)

32,030

54,276

Net Cash Flow

(6,229)

(98,824)

(33,745)

5,205

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(283,785)

(269,946)

(166,201)

(106,254)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Exchange rate movements

0

0

0

0

Other

(7,610)

(4,921)

(26,202)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(269,946)

(166,201)

(106,254)

(111,458)

Source: company accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by PDL Biopharma and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by PDL Biopharma. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by PDL Biopharma and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by PDL Biopharma. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2020. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Hepion Pharmaceuticals — Competing in the NASH dash

We are initiating coverage on Hepion Pharmaceuticals, a company developing therapeutics for chronic liver disease. CRV431, Hepion’s lead asset, is a cyclophilin inhibitor currently in development for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Hepion is currently conducting a Phase I multiple ascending dose study with an expected completion in mid-2020. We are initiating with a value of $56.9m or $6.30 per basic share.

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