LBOW is an investment fund domiciled in Guernsey that was launched in February 2013, with the objective of producing an attractive level of dividend of 6p per share from investing in a diversified portfolio of good-quality, defensive and predominantly fixed-rate senior secured UK real estate loans. The fund completed its initial portfolio ramp-up phase and became fully invested in April 2014. The market conditions prevailing at the time the trust was launched were characterised by attractive interest rates that could be achieved on senior secured loans at relatively low LTVs. Consequently, LBOW was able to invest in loans offering an average return in excess of 8% pa (the fund thus targeted a gross IRR of 8.0%) at initial LTV ratios no higher than 65%, which was also the upper ceiling at portfolio level according to LBOW’s initial investment policy. As a result, LBOW’s weighted average coupon rate at portfolio level at end-April 2014 stood at 7.39% pa, while the weighted average LTV was 60.4%. Furthermore, the loan conditions included arrangement and exit fees that usually amounted to 2% each, further enhancing LBOW’s return (weighted average projected total return as at end-April 2014 equalled 8.41% pa).
However, in 2014 the market started to change, with the activity of banks gradually increasing (after the more cautious approach in the aftermath of the global financial crisis) which, along with new entrants, has put downward pressure on spreads of senior debt loans secured by investment property (on top of declining five-year swap rates). Similar loans that previously yielded an IRR of 8.0% pa now offer a modest 4.0–5.0% pa, according to LBOW’s investment adviser. As repayment proceeds were reinvested at these return levels, this resulted in a decline in the weighted average coupon rate to 6.30% as at end July 2018 (see Exhibit 2), mostly on the back of lower-coupon loans related to the Commercial Regional Space and BMO projects. However, it must be noted that, given LBOW received prepayment fees on the reinvested capital, the overall outcome was still accretive to returns (despite the decline in coupon rates). LBOW’s investment manager responded by conducting two rounds of shareholder consultations, offering several options to shareholders in terms of investment parameters revision. This has led to approval of a revision of the fund’s investment policy, a positive outcome of the initial continuation vote and authorisation to issue up to 40 million new ordinary shares during the EGM held on 1 March 2017. As a result, the current shareholder base is aligned with the revised investment approach. At the 2018 AGM, shareholders approved the issuance of up to 100m new shares.
Exhibit 2: LBOW’s weighted average coupon rate at portfolio level
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Source: LBOW, Edison Investment Research
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Under the current investment policy, LBOW continues to target annualised dividend payments of 6p per ordinary share and, to achieve this, has broadened its commercial real estate debt investment spectrum (although retaining the focus on senior secured whole loans in the UK mid-market space). In particular, the upper LTV limit at portfolio level was raised from 65% to 75%, with the LTV limit at individual loan level at 85%, on condition that loans with an LTV greater than 80% may not constitute more than 20% of gross asset value (GAV). While this results in an increased overall risk profile of the fund, LBOW is putting much emphasis on the potential for asset management initiatives such as refurbishment, expansion or conversion of the property when selecting its debt investments, which could enhance the income streams generated by the respective property and result in improving financial metrics (LTV, and interest coverage ratio (ICR)) throughout the lending period – see Investment process section for details. In terms of individual loan size, LBOW’s primary focus will be the range of £10m–25m, as it considers this an attractive market niche that is out of reach for small private lenders (which tend to focus on the £5–10m range), but is too small for banks and larger debt funds.
Moreover, LBOW may invest up to 30% of its portfolio in private real estate debt funds managed or advised by LBOW’s investment Adviser (ICG-Longbow) or its associates (although not more than 20% may be invested in any single fund). These ICG-Longbow Private Funds in turn have to invest at least 60% in loans secured by first ranking security over commercial property, which means that a maximum of up to 12% of LBOW’s portfolio may now be exposed to loans that are not secured by first ranking fixed charges against the underlying property. The rationale behind including this option under the revised investing policy is to provide LBOW’s investors greater diversity, together with access to other debt market segments, including, among others, larger size and higher return loans. Importantly, in the case of LBOW’s investments in ICG-Longbow Private Funds, it will be a passive investor with very limited control over the structure of the end-portfolio. There are also several other exposure limits embedded in LBOW’s current investment policy related to, among others, single loan and borrower exposure, sector and regional allocation.
LBOW’s revised investment policy does not explicitly include the IRR target of 8.0%, which was part of the prior policy. However, the investment adviser expects that the wider investment universe available under the new policy will allow LBOW to invest in senior secured whole loans positioned on the LTV/IRR map (IRR of c 6.0–10.0% pa, see Exhibit 3), which are typically higher LTV loans but still secured by a first ranking mortgage on the underlying properties. Arrangement and prepayment/exit fees will continue to be standard components of the loan agreements, although rates at 1% each seem to be more achievable (compared to 2% before). The investments may also include profit participation clauses (this is, for instance, the case with the Quattro loan), although these will be added on an exceptional basis only, generally on higher LTV loans. Call protection arrangements are likely to be based on a predefined exit multiple applied to the amount outstanding rather than make-whole clauses.
Exhibit 3: LBOW’s positioning in ICG-Longbow’s risk/reward universe
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LBOW may invest in loans with maturities up to 10 years, although terms beyond five years are rather unlikely, as the horizon of borrowers’ asset management initiatives does not normally go beyond a few years. Consequently, investors should in the medium term expect an average maturity of 3–5 years at portfolio level and an average unexpired term of around 2–3 years. LBOW is seeking a well-balanced maturity profile at the portfolio level, which will reflect the long-term evergreen concept, as opposed to the approach applied at the time the fund was launched back in 2013. Initially, the fund was created with a plan to operate over a period of around five years. As the maturities of the respective loans, as well as the time of advancing them, were quite similar, a significant part of LBOW’s portfolio currently approaches maturity (55% have an unexpired loan term below 12 months or have just been repaid). The investment adviser intends to avoid a similar ‘maturity cliff’ in the future through diversifying the maturity of the new or extended loans. Importantly, if LBOW invests in one of ICG-Longbow’s Private Funds, the investment will be held to maturity (these funds usually have an investment horizon of around seven years).
UK property market solid but with varying dynamics
The UK property market is currently supported by a relatively positive macroeconomic environment, with annualised Q218 GDP growth in the UK at 1.3% following a weaker Q118. The current Bank of England (BoE) GBP forecasts stand at 1.4% and 1.8% y-o-y for 2018 and 2019, respectively. However, the BoE has indicated that it is concerned about the low level of slack in the economy, including record-low unemployment. Consequently, the central bank raised its interest rates by 25bp to 0.75% in August to curb inflationary pressures, although it acknowledges the potential impact of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU process.
Even though the overall trend in the UK real estate market remains positive, with the Investment Property Forum’s (IPF) UK All Property rental value growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 at 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively, there are some divergences evident. Firstly, rental growth differs across sectors, with current IPF consensus growth estimates for industrial rates in 2019 at 2.5% y-o-y, compared to office rates at only -0.4%, standard retail at -0.3% and shopping centres at -0.9% (see Exhibit 5). In its spring 2018 Industrial Market Tracker, JLL forecast that the industrial market will outperform (from an investment perspective) other UK property sectors over the next four years. JLL suggests that supply is constraining demand in the industrial market and as a result there is continued demand for new speculative development. From the perspective of the logistics market, it is worth noting that most export-oriented businesses are located in the regions. The demand for UK retail properties is currently negatively influenced by the shift to online retail from traditional retail, as the former is expected to significantly outgrow physical sales in the coming years.
Secondly, regional markets are behind London in the cycle, as the latter began its recovery in early 2009 but it took time for the positive tendency to spread into the regions, and from prime to secondary locations. This is particularly visible in the office market, where central London take-up remained solid in Q218 (c 9% higher than the 10-year average, according to JLL), but demand and leasing terms have begun to soften a bit. ICGL believes that, in the past, a softening of lease terms usually heralded a fall in rental values. This seems to be confirmed by the current IPF UK consensus forecasts (see Exhibit 5).
Exhibit 5: UK CRE consensus expectations
|
Rental value growth (%) |
Capital value growth (%) |
Total return (%) |
|
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
Office |
0.3 |
-0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-2.6 |
-1.4 |
4.7 |
1.7 |
3.0 |
West End office |
-0.4 |
-0.9 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-2.9 |
-1.1 |
2.7 |
0.8 |
2.7 |
City office |
-0.3 |
-1.3 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
-2.8 |
-1.3 |
3.8 |
1.2 |
2.8 |
Industrial |
3.9 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
8.7 |
1.6 |
0.1 |
13.6 |
6.4 |
4.9 |
Standard Retail |
-0.2 |
-0.3 |
0.1 |
-1.3 |
-2.4 |
-1.5 |
3.0 |
1.9 |
3.1 |
Shopping Centre |
-0.6 |
-0.9 |
-0.4 |
-5.6 |
-4.5 |
-2.7 |
-0.9 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
Retail Warehouse |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
-0.1 |
-2.6 |
-2.9 |
-2.0 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
3.8 |
All Property |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
-1.6 |
-0.9 |
5.8 |
3.2 |
4.0 |
Source: Investment Property Forum UK Consensus Forecasts (summer 2018)
It is worth noting that regional office markets should be more immune to potential Brexit-driven job relocations than London, and also face limited supply as a consequence of low development over several years and conversion of empty offices to residential properties. Moreover, there is a trend of businesses migrating out of London and into the regions. The strength of regional markets is confirmed by ICGL’s examination of cities such as Leeds and Manchester.
Deal sourcing: Aligned with prospective de-risking
LBOW’s deal origination process is focused on investments in bilateral whole loans secured by first ranking fixed charges against UK commercial property investments. It does not invest in mezzanine loans, syndicated loan facilities or construction loans.
In addition to the senior debt investment team mentioned earlier, LBOW benefits from the deal flow generated by the wider origination network of ICG-Longbow. In most cases, ICG-Longbow sources its investment opportunities directly from borrowers through an extensive contact base established by the investment directors throughout their careers, covering property investors, investment agents, asset managers and other property professionals. Furthermore, it also relies on its relationships with UK financial advisers and brokers representing potential borrowers. ICGL investment directors are based in London and Leeds, which allows them to develop and maintain their contact base in LBOW’s target markets and obtain local market insights. Moreover, in that way ICGL can often finalise transactions without having to price them in a bid process or invest through a syndication process. It is also worth noting that LBOW may benefit from the fact that banks continue the process of balance sheet ‘clean up’ to comply with the new regulatory requirements. This should provide LBOW with a stable flow of new investment opportunities in loans which are too risky for banks to retain on their balance sheets, but which could prove attractive for LBOW. Between March 2017 and March 2018 the investment manager reviewed more than 50 potential investment targets under the revised investment parameters, representing a total value of more than £600m.
The evaluation of potential investments and pricing of risk follows a well-defined process, covering the assessment of the underlying properties, the borrower’s track record (including asset management capabilities), the business plan related to asset management initiatives, cash flow and credit analysis, as well as the borrower’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices and policies. Sponsors quite often include funds or SPVs established by institutional real estate investors and asset managers. Importantly, ICM’s approach to property lending is driven by future cash flow expectations instead of being backward looking. Having said that, it is worth noting that LBOW does not invest in construction loans and requires that the project is already generating rental income. Key parameters taken into consideration by the investment adviser include the true net operating income, net effective estimated rental values (ERVs) and capital value per sq ft exposures.
The investment team puts much emphasis on risk mitigation and conducting a thorough stress test of the borrower’s business plan to ensure capital protection and resilience of income. This is particularly critical given LBOW’s hold-to-maturity approach and investment strategy, which allow the fund to invest in loans with higher LTV ratios on condition that the underlying properties have good cash-generation prospects. In line with the above approach, a key element of the subsequent investment monitoring process constitutes the verification of progress made in the asset management initiatives, which is aligned with the performance milestones embedded in the loan agreements (on top of the standard financial covenants typically based on ICR and LTV level).
A good example of the above approach of investment de-risking is the £10.0m Lanos (York) loan advanced in March 2014 to a borrower being part of a specialist hotel development and management group. The loan was secured by a first and only charge on the 99-room Best Western York Monkbar Hotel located close to the city centre of York. Day 1 LTV stood at 64.9% (close to LBOW’s upper limit back then) and Day 1 ICR was 1.22. The property was characterised by the potential for income growth associated with the planned refurbishment and addition of 27 rooms, which was to be funded using a ring-fenced element of LBOW’s loan facility amounting to £2.5m. The sponsor also sold a neighbouring restaurant and used the proceeds to provide additional funding the hotel refurbishment. Renovation works related to the hotel extension began in August 2014 and were completed in early 2015 (new rooms were handed over for letting at end-February 2015), leading to a temporary decline in ICR to 1.05 in Q414/15. Even though the renovation had a more pronounced impact on the occupancy rate than originally anticipated, the latter gradually picked up subsequently, leading to a decline in LTV to 50% and improvement in ICR to 1.16 at end-January 2016, with a further increase in ICR to 1.81 at end-January 2017. The loan was repaid in full in March 2017 ahead of the original maturity (end-December 2018), generating £1.1m of accrued interest, exit and prepayment fees. Other de-risking cases include the IRAF loan in 2014, Mansion loan in 2014-15 and Hulbert loan in 2015.
One example where business plan delivery has been slower than initially expected (although the project is gradually progressing) is the Meadow loan, where the underlying retail park became vacant following lease contract expiries. However, it must be noted that the loan continues to be serviced from a pre-funded account and LBOW has a position at c 69% LTV, allowing the fund to withstand a certain level of underperformance. In 2018, LBOW advanced a further £1.93m to the borrower and simultaneously the loan was extended for a further period of up to two years. The Meadows borrower submitted an application to the local authorities for a planning consent covering a build-to-rent residential scheme comprising 717 units on the site. The London Borough of Barnet turned down the application on the first instance. However, the London mayor has recently called in the scheme for his own determination (which implies that the Barnet decision could be overturned).
Deal approval and subsequent monitoring/risk management
The investment approval process starts with an overall review of the investment opportunity in the context of LBOW’s investment criteria, followed by the issue of indicative terms. Subsequently, ICG-Longbow’s investment committee will issue (or refrain from issuing) a provisional recommendation of the investment. Should this recommendation be accepted in principle, the ICG-Longbow team continues with negotiations and finalisation of the binding documentation. Any material changes are shared with the investment committee for final consideration as to whether to recommend proceeding. ICG-Longbow’s investment committee comprises six members representing the senior management, credit and risk functions of ICGL (divided into A, B and C members), each of whom has an average of 24 years of investment experience (see Exhibit 6). Approving an investment recommendation requires a quorum of three members (excluding the originator responsible for the transaction), which must include at least two A members and Graeme Troll or Steve Machin, and requires an overall majority with no more than one A member dissenting. Projects approved by the investment committee are recommended to the board of LBOW’s Luxembourg subsidiary, which makes the final decision whether to proceed. It is worth highlighting that LBOW is an internally managed Alternative Investment Fund, with ICG-Longbow as its appointed investment adviser. ICG-Longbow thus makes recommendations (rather than decisions) on investments in line with the process outlined above.
Exhibit 6: LBOW’s investment committee
Member |
Current position at ICGL/ICG Group |
Membership |
Years with ICG/ICGL |
Investment experience |
Graeme Troll |
Director and CFO (ICGL) |
A |
10 |
11 |
Kevin Cooper |
Director and joint head (ICGL) |
A |
10 |
28 |
Martin Wheeler |
Director and joint head (ICGL) |
A |
10 |
26 |
Steve Machin |
Director and chief credit officer (ICGL) |
A |
2 |
26 |
David Hunter |
Non-executive chairman (ICGL) |
B |
5 |
36 |
David Mortimer |
Director and head of senior debt (ICGL) |
C |
2 |
15 |
Source: LBOW’s issue prospectus
Subsequently, the investments are monitored by an asset management committee (consisting of A and B members of the investment committee), which meets on a quarterly basis. During these meetings, LBOW’s portfolio investments are reviewed for factors that may affect the value of the underlying property collateral and result in impairment of investment. These include credit/risk migration, covenant compliance, progress with business plan, as well as relevant macro- and micro-level market conditions. ICG-Longbow also conducts regular borrower meetings as well as re-inspections of the key underlying properties. Apart from asset management committee meetings, investment monitoring, risk management and day-to-day fund operations are undertaken by Graeme Troll and Steve Machin, supported by a five-member portfolio management team. Following the revision of the investment policy (with the resulting increase in investment activity and change in risk profile), LBOW’s board established an investment risk committee to manage risk proactively at fund level. As a result, the investment risk review function was separated from the operational risk review function (which is performed by the audit and operational risk committee).
The prospective performance of loan investments in LBOW’s portfolio will be dependent on future conditions in the UK real estate markets. A potential market downturn might lead to a decline in rental income and capital value of the underlying properties and result in loan covenant breaches/default. This is particularly important given that LBOW’s new investments are likely to involve higher LTV and lower ICR levels, as well as the fact that the fund’s portfolio is quite concentrated (only 10 loan investments as at end-July 2018). However, it is important to note that each individual investment is generally secured by multiple tenants and therefore is characterized by underlying diversification. In cases where a business plan realization does not meet initial expectations, LBOW’s investments generally include cash flow lock-up mechanisms, which allow LBOW to control surplus property income and formal financial covenants embedded in a loan agreement. Should these covenants be breached, the sponsors have the right to cure any such breaches through additional equity injections, but are generally not obliged to do so. If a default is not cured, ICGL may appoint a receiver or administrator to take control of the asset. It is worth noting that ICGL has in-house restructuring expertise led by Steve Machin (chief credit officer) and James Scott (a director with direct property asset management experience). Whilst ICG-Longbow has appointed receivers and administrators to manage the underlying assets and recover debt in its private funds, so far there have been no such instances within LBOW’s portfolio.
Current portfolio positioning
As at end-July 2018, LBOW’s portfolio was relatively concentrated and comprised 10 loans with an aggregate principal balance outstanding at £112.2m, and a weighted average LTV ratio and interest coverage ratio (ICR) at 61.2% and 2.16, respectively (see Exhibit 7). This compares with 57.9% and 2.22 as at end-July 2017, respectively. On 15 October, one of LBOW’s investments (the £6.6m Hulbert loan) was repaid in full, with accrued interest, exit and prepayment fees reaching c £0.26m.
As at end-July 2018, 7% of the portfolio is invested in one loan (Quattro), with an LTV in excess of 80% (compared with the upper limit under the current investing policy of 20%). The weighted average coupon rate on LBOW’s existing portfolio stands at 6.30% and is slightly above last year (6.11%), assisted by the Affinity and Quattro loan advancements (see below). Importantly, the unexpired interest income protection period has also increased to 0.72 years from 0.36 years as at end-July 2017 (adjusted for the recent Halcyon and Carrara loan extensions).
The largest position by value constitutes a £22.4m loan secured by two multi-let industrial estates located in Lancashire provided to Commercial Regional Space, which represents 18.5% of LBOW’s GAV including cash (in line with the 20% limit for loans benefiting from a diversified tenant base). The second-largest position is a £20.0m loan secured by a predominantly vacant retail park in north London (Meadows). The loan is being serviced from a pre-funded reserve account (topped up on a quarterly basis), which explains the quite low ICR at 1.00. The same applies to the more recently advanced loans (Affinity and Quattro), where tenants currently benefit from a rent-free period.
The fund is nearly fully invested (93% as at end-July 2018), with very limited cash drag. However, it is worth highlighting that 55% of the portfolio has an unexpired loan term below 12 months or has just been repaid, which means that prospective fund performance will largely depend on the ability to reinvest the proceeds from expiring loans (on top of investments aimed at portfolio expansion). Recently, LBOW’s investment adviser demonstrated its capabilities in this respect, with the immediate reinvestment of proceeds from the expiring £11.94m IRAF loan (and the accompanying accrued interest and exit fees of £0.43m) in a new £16.2m loan facility secured by a first charge over a multi-let office property in Bristol (the Affinity loan), of which £14.2m has already been drawn, as well as an £0.9m additional commitment to the borrower of the Northlands loan. Overall, LBOW has reinvested, increased or extended loans representing £90m since the first repayment on the original portfolio in Q116. Moreover, the recently secured loan facility from OakNorth Bank (discussed in more detail in the ‘Capital structure and fees’ section below) should help LBOW to reconcile loan maturities with new investment opportunities.
Exhibit 7: LBOW’s portfolio summary as at end-July 2018
Project |
Underlying assets |
Balance outstanding (£m) |
Weighted average maturity |
Current LTV |
Current ICR |
Day 1 LTV |
Day 1 ICR |
Commercial Regional Space |
Two multi-let industrial estates located in Lancashire providing a highly diversified income stream from lettings to 160 tenants. |
22.4 |
Apr 19 |
50.9% |
4.02 |
64.0% |
2.80 |
Meadows RE Fund II |
Retail park in north London; currently vacant save for some temporary occupancy of part of the site. |
20.0 |
Jan 20 |
69.4% |
1.00 |
65.0% |
1.50 |
BMO |
Portfolio of 17 properties located across the UK, principally in the high street retail and industrial sectors. |
15.8 |
Apr 19 |
51.1% |
3.72 |
55.4% |
4.04 |
Affinity |
Multi-let office property in Bristol, with committed capital expenditure facility. |
14.2 |
May 22 |
67.3% |
1.00 |
67.3% |
1.00 |
Quattro |
Three mixed-use assets in and round the London Borough of Kingston. |
9.0 |
Jan 21 |
83.7% |
1.00 |
83.7% |
1.00 |
Northlands Portfolio |
Mixed-use portfolio of high street retail and tenanted residential units located predominantly in London and the South East. |
8.5 |
Nov 18 |
53.5% |
1.59 |
61.7% |
1.92 |
Gateshead Ramada |
First and only charge over the Ramada Encore hotel in Gateshead, a modern 200-bedroom hotel that was built in 2012. The property is operated by Wyndham Hotel Group. |
8.0 |
Apr 19 |
66.0% |
1.63 |
64.4% |
1.80 |
Hulbert** |
Portfolio of industrial units predominantly located in Dudley in the West Midlands, with 80% by value being the 270,000 sq ft Grazebrook Industrial Estate. |
6.6 |
Dec 18 |
50.4% |
1.94 |
65.0% |
1.68 |
Halcyon Ground Rents |
A portfolio of 21 freehold ground rent investments, of which 72% are industrial with leasehold rents receivable based on 22% to 25% of market rent, with the balance being leisure uses at ground rents of 50%. |
6.4 |
Dec 19* |
65.2% |
1.51 |
64.8% |
1.16 |
Carrara Ground Rents |
A single-ground rent investment located in Leeds, subject to a ground rent of 25% of market rent. The property is a modern office building on an established business park accessed from the M1 motorway, which is fully let to a strong covenant. |
1.3 |
Dec 19* |
65.0% |
1.13 |
65.0% |
1.13 |
Total |
- |
112.2 |
- |
61.2% |
2.16 |
- |
- |
Source: LBOW, Edison Investment Research; Note: *Loan extensions completed after reporting date. **On 15 October, LBOW announced that the loan has been repaid in full.
Around 25% of GAV (excluding cash) was invested in London (two loans), while 55% was allocated to investments in selected regional markets, including the South East, West Midlands, North East, North West, South West and a minor amount in Yorkshire & the Humber. The remaining 20% was invested in two loans secured by diversified property portfolios located across UK. LBOW’s current geographic exposures remain within the maximum limits defined in its investment policy (up to 60% in London and 30% in any of the regional markets). Moreover, the portfolio has become more diversified regionally in comparison to July 2017 through the addition of investments located in the South East (Quattro loan) and South West (Affinity loan). The share of the North West region declined as a result of full early repayment of the £11.94m outstanding amount on the IRAF loan following the sale of the underlying properties. The proceeds were reinvested in the Affinity loan (as discussed above).
Exhibit 8: Portfolio geographic exposure by region (% unless stated, excluding cash)
|
Portfolio end-July 2018 |
Portfolio end-July 2017 |
Change (pp) |
London |
25.4 |
25.6 |
-0.2 |
South East |
8.0 |
0.0 |
8.0 |
West Midlands |
5.9 |
6.6 |
-0.7 |
North East |
7.1 |
8.0 |
-0.8 |
North West |
20.0 |
34.3 |
-14.3 |
National |
19.8 |
24.3 |
-4.5 |
Yorks & Humber |
1.2 |
1.3 |
-0.1 |
South West |
12.7 |
0.0 |
12.7 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
- |
Source: LBOW, Edison Investment Research
In terms of the respective commercial property sectors, major exposures include the industrial/distribution and mixed-use sectors with c 32% and 30% of GAV (excluding cash) allocated, respectively (compared with the maximum exposure to any given mainstream or mixed-use sector at 50%). The remaining 38% of the portfolio is invested in the retail, office and hotel sectors, with a minor exposure to the regional office segment as well. Diversification has improved in this respect as well, as the industrial/distribution and mixed-use sectors constituted around 73% of GAV as at end-July 2017.
Exhibit 9: Portfolio sector exposure (% unless stated, excluding cash)
|
Portfolio end-July 2018 |
Portfolio end-July 2017 |
Change (pp) |
Industrial/distribution |
31.6 |
49.4 |
-17.8 |
Mixed-use |
29.7 |
23.3 |
6.4 |
Retail |
17.8 |
18.0 |
-0.2 |
Office |
12.7 |
0.0 |
12.7 |
Regional office |
1.2 |
1.3 |
-0.1 |
Hotel |
7.1 |
8.0 |
-0.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
- |
Source: LBOW, Edison Investment Research
Encouraging deal pipeline
ICG-Longbow has highlighted that LBOW’s deal pipeline is encouraging. Currently, there is one transaction in excess of £20m at an advanced stage, which involves the refinancing of a purpose-built student residential scheme, as well as two mixed-use properties. Additionally, LBOW’s advanced pipeline includes other projects with an aggregate loan amount in excess of £100m (close to LBOW’s current portfolio value) with loan coupons in the 6.5% to 8.0% range, and returns supplemented by exit and arrangement fees. The investment adviser has noted that these loans generally carry LTVs in the 70-80% range. This compares with the current LTV at portfolio level of 61.2% and illustrates the shift in the fund’s focus towards higher LTV transactions. As the debt market enters its peak season in Q4, ICGL expects a pick-up in deal activity with a greater proportion of new loans vs refinancing deals entering the pipeline. This could prove favourable for LBOW from a cash availability/proceeds reinvesting perspective, given that the Northlands Portfolio matures in November this year and the Hulbert loan has just been repaid (as per LBOW’s announcement on 15 October). Simultaneously, LBOW is in regular discussions with existing borrowers over loan extensions, which could potentially lead to fresh fees and repricing opportunities.
Importantly, each of the loans included in the pipeline would be accretive to LBOW’s current weighted average coupon rate at portfolio level (6.5–8.0% compared with 6.3% as at end-July 2018, respectively), which (together with the recent Affinity deal) illustrates that the investment adviser is able to identify new investments with a coupon rate comparable to levels achieved a few years back at c 7–8%. In terms of prospective portfolio-level ICR, it is likely to decline as higher LTV loans are obviously characterised by lower coverage ratios. Moreover, the current weighted average ICR of 2.11 is inflated by the Commercial Regional Space and BMO loans. Going forward, ICGL expects the ICR to remain in line with the level seen in the initial years following LBOW’s launch, ie in the range of between 1.2 and 1.8.
Capital structure and fees
ICM receives a management fee at 1.0% of NAV pa, which is paid quarterly in arrears. On top of this, the investment manager is entitled to reimbursement of expenses incurred while carrying out its portfolio management responsibilities directly related to LBOW’s business, such as legal, accounting, consultancy, and other professional fees and expenses. In the case of LBOW’s investments in ICGL Private Funds, a mechanism to avoid double charging was introduced, whereby LBOW is not obliged to pay the management fee applicable to the amount invested in ICG-Longbow Private Funds if the management/advisory fee of the underlying fund is 1.0% of the private fund’s NAV pa or more. If the fee is lower than 1.0% pa, the management fee paid by LBOW to the investment advisor is reduced by the percentage of NAV invested in the private fund. Importantly, there is no performance fee arrangement in place between LBOW and the fund manager (although ICGL may be entitled to receive a performance fee in the case of investments in ICGL Private Funds).
On 24 May 2018, LBOW launched a new placing programme covering up to 100m ordinary shares and/or C shares (compared with 121.3m of shares outstanding at that time), which will be open for a period of 12 months (unless terminated earlier by the company), during which time LBOW will have the flexibility to conduct a round of share issues. The aim of this programme is: 1) to allow LBOW to raise additional capital quickly to fund current and prospective investment opportunities; 2) to increase the market capitalisation to reach a wider investor base; 3) to improve stock liquidity; and 4) to spread the fixed ongoing charges across a wider shareholder base (current ratio of 1.00% as at end-January 2018 vs peer ratios at c 1.2–3.4%) The ordinary shares would be placed at a premium to NAV to cover the issue costs, while the C shares would be placed at a price of 100p.
LBOW launched a similar programme in March 2017 following the investment policy revision, authorising the board to place up to 40m ordinary shares over a 12-month period to fund new investment opportunities. In this placing programme, the company issued 8.82m new shares in October 2017 and a further 4.26m in March 2018 (which represent an aggregate c 33% of the placement limit), raising £9.0m and £4.3m in gross proceeds, respectively. The lower volume issued during the second round seems to be at least partially a function of the overall short-term deterioration in sentiment in the financial markets at that time. This led to LBOW missing some investment opportunities in the short term.
At the 2018 AGM, the board was also authorised to allot and issue up to 12,118,148 ordinary shares (ie 10% of the current share capital) for cash on a non-pre-emptive basis. The company did not introduce any predefined discount management scheme utilising share buybacks, but a special resolution was passed during the 2018 AGM granting the board the authority to repurchase up to 18,183,287 ordinary shares over a period of 15 months following the AGM (the company has not sought and does not intend to seek the authority to repurchase C shares).
New debt facility provides additional flexibility
LBOW’s maximum leverage level under the current investment policy is 20% of NAV. LBOW will use its available debt facilities to minimise the return-dilutive effects of uninvested cash without meaningfully increasing its risk profile. The fund has recently secured a working capital facility with OakNorth Bank, which will enable it to incur debt up to 20% of the portfolio, subject to a cap of £25m. This is an important step which provides LBOW with some degree of flexibility with respect to the timing of new loan investments and reinvesting proceeds from maturing loans, helping to minimize potential cash drag and stabilize income streams.