Ultimovacs — FOCUS – first in series of upcoming catalysts

Ultimovacs (OSE: ULTI)

Last close As at 15/11/2024

NOK7.55

0.06 (0.80%)

Market capitalisation

260m

More on this equity

Research: Healthcare

Ultimovacs — FOCUS – first in series of upcoming catalysts

Ultimovacs has announced that patient enrolment has been completed for FOCUS, the Phase II clinical trial assessing UV1 in combination with pembrolizumab for the treatment of head and neck cancer. The anticipated H224 top-line results, including overall survival (OS), represents a notable catalyst for the company as it comes amid several crucial readouts from Ultimovacs’s ongoing Phase II trials investigating the company’s lead cancer vaccine in various cancer indications. The INITIUM study is the next expected update (H223), assessing UV1 in combination with ipilimumab and nivolumab for the treatment of metastatic malignant melanoma.

Soo Romanoff

Written by

Soo Romanoff

Managing Director - Head of Content, Healthcare

Healthcare

Ultimovacs

FOCUS - first in series of upcoming catalysts

Clinical update

Pharma and biotech

4 August 2023

Price

NOK73.9

Market cap

NOK2,542m

Net cash (NOKm) at end-March 2023 (excluding leases)

405.5

Shares in issue

34.4m

Free float

53%

Code

ULTI

Primary exchange

Oslo Stock Exchange

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

Ultimovacs is developing novel immunotherapies against cancer. Lead product candidate UV1 is a peptide-based vaccine against the universal cancer antigen telomerase (hTERT), which is expressed in c 85% of all cancer types. UV1 therefore has a broad potential in a variety of different settings and combinations.

Analysts

Soo Romanoff

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dr Arron Aatkar

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Ultimovacs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Ultimovacs has announced that patient enrolment has been completed for FOCUS, the Phase II clinical trial assessing UV1 in combination with pembrolizumab for the treatment of head and neck cancer. The anticipated H224 top-line results, including overall survival (OS), represents a notable catalyst for the company as it comes amid several crucial readouts from Ultimovacs’s ongoing Phase II trials investigating the company’s lead cancer vaccine in various cancer indications. The INITIUM study is the next expected update (H223), assessing UV1 in combination with ipilimumab and nivolumab for the treatment of metastatic malignant melanoma.

Year

end

Revenue
(NOKm)

PBT*
(NOKm)

EPS**
(NOK)

DPS
(NOK)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/21

0.0

(164.7)

(5.09)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/22

0.0

(167.8)

(4.89)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/23e

0.0

(210.8)

(6.13)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/24e

0.0

(277.9)

(8.08)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT is reported. **EPS is fully diluted.

Ultimovacs has provided an update on the FOCUS trial, stating that patient enrolment has been completed (n=75) and that the last patient has been dosed. This is a Phase II randomised study being conducted across ten sites in Germany to assess the potential benefit of UV1 as an add-on to standard of care treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) pembrolizumab, versus pembrolizumab alone. Topline results include OS with a minimum follow-up of 12 months, as well as progression-free survival (PFS), and are expected in H224, pushed back slightly from prior guidance of H124. We note that Ultimovacs is targeting first-line treatment for patients with recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The head and neck cancer market is projected to be worth around $4.7bn by 2028 (according to EvaluatePharma) and, with HNSCC accounting for over 90% of these cases, we believe that the readouts from FOCUS could be a major catalyst for Ultimovacs.

FOCUS is the third of five Phase II trials evaluating UV1 in various cancer indications, in combination with various ICIs. In June 2023, Ultimovacs shared results from the NIPU study (metastatic pleural mesothelioma) and, while the study did not meet the primary endpoint of PFS, a positive trend was observed in OS for the UV1 arm; readers can access our detailed discussion on the outcome of this trial here. Full data from NIPU, including OS, will be shared in autumn. In our view, the next most significant near-term catalyst for investor attention will be readouts from the INITIUM study (metastatic malignant melanoma). Patient enrolment (n=156) was completed in July 2022 and top-line results are anticipated in H223. Slightly further on the horizon are readouts from the DOVACC (ovarian cancer) and LUNGVAC (non-small cell lung cancer) studies; top-line results from these trials are expected in H224 and H225, respectively.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Ultimovacs and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Ultimovacs. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

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United Kingdom

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This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Ultimovacs and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Ultimovacs. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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