Record — Further growth in AUME

Record (LSE: REC)

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Research: Financials

Record — Further growth in AUME

Record’s assets under management equivalent (AUME) has continued to grow in Q122 with net inflows including the launch of the new Record Emerging Market Sustainable Finance Fund. This is the first of several new product initiatives to be realised and will contribute to diversification of revenues. The group is also continuing to focus on modernisation and succession to support future growth.

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Financials

Record

Further growth in AUME

Q122 trading update

Financial services

29 July 2021

Price

86.7p

Market cap

£167m

Net cash (£m) excluding seed
fund cash at end-March 2021

16.1

Shares in issue net of EBT

192.7m

Free float

53%

Code

REC

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(12.0)

(0.1)

143.9

Rel (local)

(11.8)

(1.2)

105.9

52-week high/low

102.00p

31.70p

Business description

Record is a specialist independent currency and derivatives manager. It provides a number of products and services for institutional clients, including passive and dynamic hedging, and a range of currency for return strategies, including funds and customised segregated accounts.

Next event

Q222 trading update

22 October 2021

Analysts

Andrew Mitchell

+44 (0)20 3681 2500

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

Record is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Record’s assets under management equivalent (AUME) has continued to grow in Q122 with net inflows including the launch of the new Record Emerging Market Sustainable Finance Fund. This is the first of several new product initiatives to be realised and will contribute to diversification of revenues. The group is also continuing to focus on modernisation and succession to support future growth.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS**
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/19

25.0

8.0

3.25

2.30

26.7

2.7

03/20

25.6

7.7

3.26

2.30

26.6

2.7

03/21

25.4

6.2

2.73

2.30

31.8

2.7

03/22e

33.0

12.2

5.05

2.30

17.2

2.7

Note: *EPS is diluted. **DPS excludes special dividends.

AUME increases with revenue diversification

At end-June Record’s AUME stood at $84.5bn, an increase of 5% compared with end-March (in sterling terms to £61.2bn, also an increase of 5%). There was a net inflow of $1.8bn (2%), split evenly between passive hedging and currency for return. The latter included the Record Emerging Market Sustainable Finance Fund, which launched at end-June at a size of approximately $0.75bn. The fund is important as it is a first step in the group’s strategy to create new products in collaboration with clients to grow and diversify revenue. It also provides an entry point to sustainable investment as an area for development and commands a significantly higher fee margin than existing products. Changes in exchange rates and market levels together with scaling of volatility targeting mandates resulted in a positive movement in AUME of $2.6bn (3%). The client count was reduced to 87 from 89 as two legacy funds with negligible AUME were closed in the quarter. Average fee rates were broadly stable and no performance fees were earned in the period.

Further estimate increase

Following the increase in AUME in Q122, we have again raised our estimates for FY22. An increase of 3% in our revenue assumption results in a 6% increase in diluted earnings per share (see Exhibit 3 for further details). As with previous estimates, we do not allow for further unannounced prospective fund flows or potential performance fees.

Valuation

On our revised estimate, the shares trade on a prospective P/E of 17x, a premium to the average for a selection of UK asset managers (Exhibit 2). Supporting this are the recent upward trend in AUME, the potential for further new product development and possible crystallisation of performance fees over time.

AUME changes and investment performance

Changes in Q122 AUME are analysed in Exhibit 1. Looking at the AUME figures, within the overall 5% increase in the quarter the largest change (+38%) was in the currency for return category; as noted earlier, this includes the Record Emerging Market Sustainable Finance Fund launched at the end of June.

Within the 33% y-o-y increase, the largest percentage change (+238%) has been in dynamic hedging, with the winning of a large mandate announced in September 2020 reflected in the $6.5bn 12-month inflow for the category. In absolute terms, the largest increase year-on-year was in passive hedging ($9.9bn, 18%), reflecting a combination of market moves and inflows (7%). Splitting the 33% AUME 12-month increase of $21.2bn in another way, 57% was accounted for by flows and 43% by market and other moves.

Exhibit 1: AUME changes

March year-end

Q121

Q421

Q122

12-month

Q122

$bn

AUME

AUME

AUME

Net flows

Net flows

Dynamic hedging

2.9

9.3

9.8

6.5

0

Passive hedging

53.9

61.5

63.8

3.6

0.9

Currency for return

3.1

3.9

5.4

0.9

0.9

Multi-product

3.2

5.2

5.3

1.0

0

Cash and futures

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.0

0

Total

63.3

80.1

84.5

12.0

1.8

Markets

6.1

1.3

FX and scaling for mandate volatility targeting

3.1

1.3

Total change

21.2

4.4

Source: Record, Edison Investment Research

Investment performance of the multi-strategy product was positive in the quarter, with the multi-strategy composite targeting 4% volatility, generating a quarterly return of 0.88% and an annualised, since-inception return of 0.93%. Hedging returns for US Dynamic clients were negative in the quarter with value added for a representative account of -0.44%, but the annualised performance since inception (April 2009) stood at 0.41%. Tenor-managed passive hedging returns were also negative during the quarter (-0.004% with annualised performance since October 2014 inception of 0.08%). Here, central bank injections of US dollar liquidity resulted in relative stability in forward market pricing, limiting the opportunity for gains through tenor management. From a client perspective, the passive hedging ratio is maintained in these mandates, although current market conditions mean the opportunity to limit hedging costs and for Record to earn performance fees is constrained.

Valuation comparison

Exhibit 2 shows an updated version of our comparative valuation table, with a selection of quoted UK fund managers. Record shares still trade at a premium to the average prospective, calendarised P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, although this is moderated by the further increase in our estimate.

Exhibit 2: Comparing valuation with UK fund managers

Price
(p)

Market cap (£m)

P/E
2021e (x)

P/E
2022e (x)

EV/EBITDA 2021e (x)

Dividend yield (%)

Ashmore

382

2,713

14.7

14.9

10.1

4.4

City of London Investment Group

516

260

10.5

9.8

N/A

5.8

Impax Asset Management

1,159

1,530

36.4

26.9

29.2

0.7

Jupiter

285

1,567

10.3

10.7

6.2

6.0

Liontrust

2,059

1,253

20.5

17.2

14.3

2.3

Man Group

196

3,888

9.9

10.8

7.3

3.9

Polar Capital

883

880

14.0

12.1

9.0

4.5

Schroders

3,675

9,674

16.9

15.6

12.5

3.1

Average

16.6

14.8

12.6

3.9

Record

87

167

19.4

16.0

14.1

2.7

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: P/E and EV/EBITDA on a calendar-year basis. Record’s dividend yield excludes the special dividend. Priced at 28 July 2021.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£000s

 

 

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022e

Year end 31 March

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

23,834

24,973

25,563

25,412

32,995

Operating expenses

 

 

(16,735)

(17,089)

(17,996)

(19,333)

(20,882)

Other income/(expense)

 

 

173

(8)

82

41

0

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

7,272

7,876

7,649

6,120

12,114

Finance income

 

 

56

113

88

33

38

Profit Before Tax

 

 

7,328

7,989

7,737

6,153

12,152

Taxation

(1,182)

(1,559)

(1,365)

(802)

(2,309)

Minority interests

 

 

0

0

48

0

0

Attributable profit

 

 

6,146

6,430

6,420

5,351

9,843

Revenue/AuME (excl. perf fees) bps

 

 

5.1

4.9

4.9

4.8

5.4

Operating margin (%)

 

 

30.5

31.5

29.9

24.1

36.7

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

 

 

206.5

198.1

197.1

196.2

194.9

Basic EPS (p)

 

 

3.03

3.27

3.26

2.75

5.06

EPS - diluted (p)

 

 

2.98

3.25

3.26

2.73

5.05

Dividend per share (p)

 

 

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

Special dividend per share (p)

 

 

0.50

0.69

0.41

0.45

2.10

Total dividend (p)

 

 

2.80

2.99

2.71

2.75

4.40

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Non-current assets

 

 

2,339

2,161

4,868

5,153

4,488

Intangible Assets

 

 

228

288

470

420

405

Tangible Assets

 

 

910

761

751

683

533

Investments

 

 

1,115

1,112

2,472

3,046

3,046

Other

 

 

86

0

1,175

1,004

504

Current Assets

 

 

29,737

31,427

31,149

28,045

33,470

Debtors

 

 

6,775

7,562

8,704

8,006

10,088

Cash

 

 

12,498

12,966

14,294

6,847

10,190

Money market instruments

 

 

10,198

10,735

7,958

12,932

12,932

Other

 

 

266

164

193

260

260

Current liabilities

 

 

(5,525)

(6,158)

(6,955)

(5,992)

(6,383)

Creditors

 

 

(2,630)

(2,736)

(3,009)

(3,426)

(4,317)

Financial liabilities

 

 

(2,467)

(2,621)

(2,191)

(1,696)

(1,696)

Other

 

 

(428)

(801)

(1,755)

(870)

(370)

Non-current liabilities

 

 

0

(29)

(901)

(407)

(407)

Net Assets

 

 

26,551

27,401

28,161

26,799

31,168

Minority interests

 

 

0

60

132

0

0

Net assets attributable to ordinary shareholders

 

26,551

27,341

28,029

26,799

31,168

No of shares at year end

 

 

199.1

199.1

199.1

199.1

199.1

NAV per share p

 

 

13.3

13.7

14.1

13.5

15.7

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

2,746

7,026

6,543

6,798

9,569

Capex

 

 

(236)

(72)

(243)

(230)

(140)

Cash flow from other investing activities

 

 

7,899

(561)

1,513

(6,210)

(112)

Dividends

 

 

(6,810)

(5,517)

(5,888)

(5,290)

(5,474)

Other financing activities

 

 

(10,367)

(613)

(943)

(2,368)

(500)

Other

 

 

146

205

346

(147)

0

Net Cash Flow

 

 

(6,622)

468

1,328

(7,447)

3,343

Opening cash/(net debt)

 

 

19,120

12,498

12,966

14,294

6,847

Closing net (debt)/cash

 

 

12,498

12,966

14,294

6,847

10,190

Closing net (debt)/cash inc money market instruments

22,696

23,701

22,252

19,779

23,122

AUME ($bn)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Opening

 

 

58.2

62.2

57.3

58.6

80.1

Net new money flows

 

 

(1.2)

(4.5)

4.6

9.7

1.4

Market/other

 

 

5.2

(0.4)

(3.3)

11.8

3.2

Closing

 

 

62.2

57.3

58.6

80.1

84.7

Source: Record accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Record and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Record. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Record and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Record. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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