Renewi — FY21 estimates raised following H1 update

Renewi (LSE: RWI)

Last close As at 20/11/2024

GBP5.81

−29.00 (−4.75%)

Market capitalisation

GBP469m

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Research: Industrials

Renewi — FY21 estimates raised following H1 update

While COVID-19 has had some impact on Renewi’s markets, the extent is less than anticipated by management earlier in the year. Consequently, we are able to nudge up current year estimates (PBT up by €4m in a low base year) ahead of the H121 results. The latest strategic phase is in its early stages of implementation and management is clearly focused on delivering a significant uplift in profitability under this three-year programme.

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Industrials

Renewi

FY21 estimates raised following H1 update

H120 pre-close update

Industrial support services

1 October 2020

Price

19.5p

Market cap

£156m

€1.10/£

Core group ongoing net debt
(ex-PPP/PFI finance and IFRS 16 leases, €m) at end September 2020

407

Shares in issue

800.1m

Free float

98.8%

Code

RWI

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

Euronext Amsterdam

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(16.3)

(25.9)

(35.7)

Rel (local)

(14.8)

(23.0)

(20.4)

52-week high/low

45.0p

18.1p

Business description

Renewi is a waste-to-product company with operations primarily in the Netherlands, Belgium and the UK, and was formed from the merger between Shanks Group and Van Gansewinkel Group in 2017. Its activities span the collection, processing and resale of industrial, hazardous and municipal waste.

Next events

H121 results

10 November 2020

Analyst

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Renewi is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

While COVID-19 has had some impact on Renewi’s markets, the extent is less than anticipated by management earlier in the year. Consequently, we are able to nudge up current year estimates (PBT up by €4m in a low base year) ahead of the H121 results. The latest strategic phase is in its early stages of implementation and management is clearly focused on delivering a significant uplift in profitability under this three-year programme.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/19

1,780.7

63.1

6.0

1.7

3.6

7.8

03/20

1,775.4

54.3

5.4

0.5

4.2

2.4

03/21e

1,560.4

10.6

0.9

0.0

22.9

N/A

03/22e

1,691.3

42.2

3.9

0.0

5.5

N/A

03/23e

1,754.5

66.1

6.2

0.6

3.5

2.6

Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding pension net finance costs, amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. FY20 is on an IFRS 16 basis.

Further recovery in Commercial volumes

Renewi’s pre-close statement included some divisional highlights of a COVID-19 affected H121 trading period. In Commercial, both the Netherlands and Belgium have improved the rate of volume recovery y-o-y in Q2 versus Q1. In the former case, the Q2 outturn was -4% (Q1: -6%) and in the latter -10% (Q1: -24%, including -15% in June). Understandably, some mix changes have been seen – reflecting underlying sector activity – and while recyclate prices have remained weak, cost reduction and pricing actions have been taken accordingly. ATM (now part of the Mineralz & Water division) is still in the foothills of its recovery, but late-stage discussions for thermally treated soil offtake are ongoing and interest is growing in downstream graded building materials supporting investment in storage silos. In addition, indications are that order books are building for inbound contaminated soil for treatment. For the group as a whole, €10m cost savings have been achieved ytd, which appears to be ahead in run rate terms of the €15m previously targeted.

Cash flow control and estimates increased

The period-end core net debt position was €407m (€457m at the end of March); adjusting for temporary tax deferral timing effects, underlying cash flow has been broadly neutral, we believe. Deferred tax payment horizons are set to be extended in the Netherlands, so the benefit to Renewi and others is likely to go beyond FY21 now. Management remains ‘suitably cautious’ regarding the macro outlook but with trading better than guidance and extended deferred cash tax/net debt benefits, we have increased our FY21 PBT estimate by €4m ahead of the H121 results.

Valuation: Recovery potential not reflected

Latterly, Renewi’s share price has traded at the lower end of its range in FY21 to date, sitting on FY22e P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples of 5.5x and 4.1x respectively. While earnings have been affected by COVID-19 in the current year, our estimates include recovery and internal profit improvement initiatives such that FY23 earnings are expected to exceed those generated in FY19 and FY20. Successful implementation of the new strategy would return profitability back to (and possibly beyond) 2018 levels when the share price was 100p+.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

m's

2018

2018

2019

2020*

2021e

2022e

2023e

March

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

Sterling

Euros

Euros

Euros

Euros

Euros

Euros

Revenue

 

 

1,565.7

1,760.3

1,780.7

1,775.4

1,560.4

1,691.3

1,754.5

Cost of Sales

 

 

(1,276.9)

(1,419.2)

(1,470.4)

(1,467.5)

(1,295.2)

(1,399.5)

(1,447.5)

Gross Profit

 

 

288.8

341.1

310.3

307.9

265.3

291.7

307.0

EBITDA

 

 

156.9

176.3

179.7

167.1

125.5

159.1

183.0

Operating Profit (before GW and except.)

69.1

82.5

85.5

87.6

44.5

76.6

99.0

Net Interest

 

 

(14.2)

(15.0)

(14.4)

(18.5)

(19.0)

(19.5)

(18.0)

Other Finance

 

 

(5.1)

(7.1)

(8.4)

(15.7)

(14.9)

(14.9)

(14.9)

JV/Associates

 

 

2.3

2.6

0.4

0.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

Intangible Amortisation

 

 

(5.8)

(6.7)

(6.4)

(6.4)

(6.4)

(6.4)

(6.4)

Non-trading & exceptional items

 

 

(95.7)

(108.4)

(145.1)

(107.1)

(14.0)

(10.0)

(6.0)

Profit Before Tax (Edison norm)

 

52.1

63.0

63.1

54.3

10.6

42.2

66.1

Pension net finance costs

 

 

(0.6)

(0.7)

(0.6)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

Profit Before Tax (Renewi norm)

 

51.5

62.3

62.5

54.1

10.4

42.0

65.9

Profit Before Tax (statutory)

 

 

(50.0)

(52.8)

(89.0)

(59.4)

(10.0)

25.6

53.5

Tax - headline

 

 

2.6

1.4

12.4

(1.1)

(2.5)

(10.1)

(15.9)

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

 

39.1

47.2

47.5

41.0

8.0

32.0

50.2

Profit After Tax

 

 

(47.4)

(51.5)

(76.6)

(60.5)

(12.6)

15.4

37.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

 

799.9

799.9

796.7

794.9

794.9

794.9

794.9

EPS - Edison norm (p/c) FD

 

 

4.9

5.9

6.0

5.4

0.9

3.9

6.2

EPS - Renewi norm (p/c) FD

 

 

4.8

5.4

6.0

5.4

0.9

3.9

6.2

EPS - (p/c)

 

 

(5.9)

(6.8)

(11.7)

(9.8)

(1.7)

1.8

4.6

Dividend per share (p/c)

 

 

3.05

3.46

1.68

0.52

0.00

0.00

0.56

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

 

 

18.4

19.4

17.4

17.3

17.0

17.3

17.5

EBITDA Margin (%)

 

 

10.0

10.0

10.1

9.4

8.0

9.4

10.4

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

4.4

4.7

4.8

4.9

2.9

4.5

5.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

1,456.3

1,669.2

1,439.6

1,616.8

1,606.7

1,605.1

1,607.0

Intangible Assets

 

 

606.3

699.3

605.6

610.1

599.6

589.1

578.6

Tangible Assets (inc RoU assets)

 

 

623.0

710.8

629.1

790.9

791.3

800.2

812.6

Investments

 

 

227.0

259.1

204.9

215.8

215.8

215.8

215.8

Current Assets

 

 

366.2

418.0

533.3

503.3

493.3

392.3

410.0

Stocks

 

 

23.3

26.6

26.0

20.7

18.3

19.7

20.4

Debtors

 

 

279.0

318.4

456.9

288.1

267.0

283.1

292.0

Cash

 

 

63.9

73.0

50.4

194.5

208.0

89.5

97.6

Current Liabilities

 

 

(545.8)

(631.0)

(758.3)

(635.2)

(646.9)

(643.2)

(633.8)

Creditors

 

 

(532.9)

(616.3)

(639.6)

(618.4)

(630.1)

(626.4)

(617.0)

Short term borrowings

 

 

(12.9)

(14.7)

(118.7)

(16.8)

(16.8)

(16.8)

(16.8)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(894.3)

(1,019.9)

(895.1)

(1,249.6)

(1,230.4)

(1,116.1)

(1,107.4)

Long term borrowings

 

 

(489.7)

(558.9)

(483.7)

(634.9)

(634.9)

(534.9)

(534.9)

Other long-term liabilities

 

 

(404.6)

(461.0)

(411.4)

(614.7)

(595.5)

(581.2)

(572.5)

Net Assets

 

 

382.4

436.3

319.5

235.3

222.7

238.2

275.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

128.4

143.6

86.8

167.8

167.9

132.4

170.1

Net Interest

 

 

(16.9)

(19.1)

(17.7)

(27.0)

(25.6)

(26.1)

(24.6)

Tax

 

 

(6.7)

(7.6)

(13.2)

(10.1)

(16.5)

(2.5)

(10.1)

Net Capex

 

 

(81.2)

(92.3)

(99.4)

(73.4)

(77.3)

(87.3)

(92.3)

Acquisitions/disposals

 

 

(4.1)

(4.8)

22.7

81.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Equity Financing

 

 

0.6

0.6

(2.7)

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

 

 

(24.4)

(27.6)

(27.4)

(8.6)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

 

 

(4.3)

(7.3)

(50.9)

130.3

48.5

16.4

43.1

Opening core net debt/(cash)

 

 

423.9

492.7

500.0

552.0

457.2

443.7

462.2

IFRS16 lease capital repayments

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

(38.5)

(35.0)

(35.0)

(35.0)

Other

 

 

(10.5)

(0.0)

(1.1)

3.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing core net debt/(cash)

 

 

438.7

500.0

552.0

457.2

443.7

462.2

454.1

Closing PPP/PFI non-recourse net debt

 

82.9

94.6

95.4

90.0

90.0

90.0

90.0

IFRS16 Lease finance

 

 

 

 

 

202.7

204.7

206.7

208.7

Source: Company, Edison Investment Research. *EPS for continuing businesses in FY20 was 5.1c and the 5.4c figure shown includes discontinued operations

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Renewi and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Renewi. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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New Zealand

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United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

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1185 Avenue of the Americas

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United States of America

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Level 12, Office 1205

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NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Renewi and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Renewi. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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