Attica Bank — FY21 results and capital actions progress

Attica Bank (ASE: TATT)

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Research: Financials

Attica Bank — FY21 results and capital actions progress

Attica Bank reported a loss of €105.0m in FY21 (FY20: €306.4m), which included a €55.4m write-down from loan securitisation in Q421. Loan impairments remain high and were 1.6% of loans in FY21, while the cost income ratio was 147% (FY20: 100%). More positively, income trends were good (Q421 total revenue and interest income rose 104% and 53% q-o-q respectively). The various capital actions taken by management (including share issues and securitisations) have improved the balance sheet, which had a CET1 of 8.3% (4.9% fully loaded) versus 3.1% (-0.4%) at the end of FY20. Non-performing exposure (NPE) remains high at 33.6% (FY20: 41.7%). Despite improvements, Attica needs further capital actions to gain the scale needed for it to be profitable. We suspended forecasts in July 2021 until further clarity on the outcome of these capital actions.

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Financials

Attica Bank

FY21 results and capital actions progress

FY21 results

Banks

31 May 2022

Price

€0.07

Market cap

€89.5m

€1.17/£

Common equity tier 1 ratio (FY21, statutory)

8.3%

Shares in issue

1,224.2m

Free float

2.2%

Code

TATT

Primary exchange

Athens

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(39.7)

(45.1)

(88.1)

Rel (local)

(37.7)

(45.1)

(88.2)

52-week high/low

€1.78

€0.07

Business description

Attica Bank is the fifth-largest bank in Greece, with assets of €3.3bn and 50 branches centred around Athens. It has a 2% market share of business banking and around 2% market share of most retail banking products.

Next events

Q122 results

June 2022

Analyst

Pedro Fonseca

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Attica Bank is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Attica Bank reported a loss of €105.0m in FY21 (FY20: €306.4m), which included a €55.4m write-down from loan securitisation in Q421. Loan impairments remain high and were 1.6% of loans in FY21, while the cost income ratio was 147% (FY20: 100%). More positively, income trends were good (Q421 total revenue and interest income rose 104% and 53% q-o-q respectively). The various capital actions taken by management (including share issues and securitisations) have improved the balance sheet, which had a CET1 of 8.3% (4.9% fully loaded) versus 3.1% (-0.4%) at the end of FY20. Non-performing exposure (NPE) remains high at 33.6% (FY20: 41.7%). Despite improvements, Attica needs further capital actions to gain the scale needed for it to be profitable. We suspended forecasts in July 2021 until further clarity on the outcome of these capital actions.

Year end

Pre-provision profit (€m)

PBT
(€m)

EPS
(€)

ROE
(%)

P/E
(x)

Price/NTA*
(x)

12/18

38.8

4.8

(0.01)

(0.4)

N/A

0.08

12/19

1.6

(23.6)

0.01

1.0

N/A

0.08

12/20

0.1

(285.8)

(0.66)

(146.0)

N/A

0.22

12/21

(25.1)

(104.4)

(0.09)

(32.0)

N/A

0.33

Note: *NTA = net tangible assets.

FY21 core revenue +7% year-on-year

Attica’s FY21 core revenue grew 7% y-o-y, while Q421 core revenue grew 46% yoy and 104% q-o-q. Fee income has been growing strongly since posting a net loss in Q420, while interest income picked up strongly in Q421 (+53% q-o-q); the trend in the latter has been affected by the securitisations and loan transfers. However, operating expenses climbed by 58% q-o-q in Q421 and, although there were some one-offs, clearly this needs to be brought under control. Attica has announced in Q122 another voluntary redundancy plan to which 14% of employees have adhered.

More capital actions planned

Among the actions announced are sale of the point of sale (POS) business (estimated to add 80bp to CET1 by management) and active utilisation of investment property (30bp). The bank’s CET1 and capital adequacy ratio (CAR) are currently above the statutory requirements (8% and 10.7%, respectively). However, fresh equity will likely be needed to be able to deliver on management’s aim of doubling the balance sheet in three years and a return to profitability.

Key shareholder support

Three key shareholders (Hellenic Financial Stability Fund, TMEDE and Rinoa/Ellington Solutions), which own 87.5% of the bank and injected €210m in 2021, wrote to the bank in April 2022 stating that they are willing to further invest up to €365m in equity based on terms and conditions that include reducing the NPE ratio to below 5% and Attica returning to profitability. The letter states that they believe that neither shareholders nor management yet have the ‘full picture’ of the losses that will arise from the reduction of the NPEs, as the ‘relevant preparatory work is still in progress’.

FY21 results: Progress and pain

Revenue is growing

Attica’s FY21 and especially Q421 results still reflect the ongoing balance sheet clean-up costs, transformation costs and the suboptimal size of the bank. On the one hand, Q421 core revenue rose 46% y-o-y and 104% q-o-q. This was helped by an interest margin recovery driven by new loan business. On the other hand, operating expenses ballooned to €27.6m in Q421 and there was exceptionally heavy provisioning (4.64% of net loans) accompanied by a €55.4m loss relating to losses on loan transfer from the last securitisation tranches sold – this was 95% of the mezzanine and junior notes of the Omega securitisation.

€3bn in loans securitised so far

The Omega securitisation mezzanine and junior notes amounted to €70m and €585m, respectively, and were sold on 4 October 2021. The senior tranche was sold earlier in Q321 with a value of €630m for a combined book value of €1,285m loans in the Omega securitisation. Since December 2016, Attica has securitised a total of €3bn in loans. This compares to net loans of €1,326m on the balance sheet at the end of FY21. The NPE ratio is still 33.6% under IFRS rules and therefore further work needs to be done. Attica’s key shareholders have confirmed that they are willing to invest up to €365m to clean up the bank, provided that the additional money takes the NPE ratio below 5% as well as allowing the bank to return to profitability. The company is currently reviewing its loan book to further assess the asset quality and provisioning needs.

Heracles delay

There has been a delay in Attica submitting its recent securitisations (Omega, Astir 1 and Astir 2) for the Greek government guarantee scheme Heracles 2 (Heracles Asset Protection Scheme, HAPS). The government guarantee helps banks to sell securitisations to investors and can provide some capital relief in exchange for a fee payable to the government for the guarantee. Management currently says it is still not possible to quantify the amount of the fee, capital relief and the net benefit of submitting the securitisations to the HAPS. Before they can be included in the scheme, these securitisations need to garner ratings by the credit agencies with the minimum acceptable rating being BB-, which is the same as the Greek sovereign. The delay is due to the complexity of the assessment of the value of the securitisations and because management notes that there is a deterioration in the benefits of the programme mainly due to the increase in the cost of the government guarantee in Q122 (compared to 2021), which is based on the spread of Greek bonds.

More capital needed

Following the successful €240m capital injection and despite the sizeable asset write-downs in Q421, Attica’s capital ratios are once again above statutory requirements. The statutory FY21 CET1 is 8.3% (the requirement is 8.0%) and total capital is at 11.8% (10.7% required). The fully loaded FY21 CET1 is only 4.9% and this looks light in our opinion.

Attica’s strategic plan calls for doubling the balance sheet and increasing product penetration (with a focus on bancassurance) to increase the revenue base to allow the bank to become profitable. Even without factoring in further write-downs, Attica would clearly need to increase its capital base to be able to expand the balance sheet so significantly. Net loans grew 2% q-o-q in Q421, equivalent to 8% annually. Deposit funding at this stage seems ample at €2.9bn and therefore liquidity is not an issue. The key challenges are as aforementioned: balance sheet clean-up and then growing the business.

The current shareholding structure following the various capital actions is as follows: Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) 62.9%, Fund of Engineers and Public Works Contractors (TMEDE) 14.7%, Rinoa/Ellington Solutions 9.9% and National Electronic Social Security Agency (EFKA) 10.3%. The free float is now 2%.

Exhibit 1: Quarterly progression (selected figures)

€000s

Q420

Q1021

Q221

Q321

Q421

y-o-y%

q-o-q%

Net interest income

12,489

14,169

14,615

6,611

10,090

-19%

53%

Net fees and commissions

(863)

752

1,256

1,693

6,836

-892%

304%

Core revenue

11,626

14,921

15,871

8,304

16,926

46%

104%

Other operating income

2,349

(4,827)

386

4,105

(2,351)

-200%

-157%

Total revenue

13,976

10,094

16,258

12,410

14,574

4%

17%

Operating expense

(18,858)

(15,788)

(17,567)

(17,503)

(27,611)

46%

58%

Pre-provision profit

(4,883)

(5,695)

(1,309)

(5,092)

(13,038)

167%

156%

Losses on securitisation loan transfer

0

0

0

0

(55,401)

Impairment charge for loan losses

(226,607)

(2,324)

(3,079)

(2,169)

(15,201)

-93%

601%

Profit before tax

(252,066)

(8,208)

(4,338)

(7,265)

(84,563)

-66%

1064%

Net loans

1,600,946

1,627,186

1,679,771

1,294,398

1,325,532

-17%

2%

DTA

421,357

423,495

414,307

261,931

267,446

-36%

2%

Assets

3,579,549

3,647,565

3,647,151

3,503,961

3,666,086

2%

5%

Client Deposits

2,801,439

2,851,646

2,896,037

2,877,199

2,920,578

4%

2%

Tier 2 debt securities

99,781

99,794

99,807

99,820

99,833

0%

0%

Equity

206,689

201,476

187,535

181,063

331,496

58%

83%

Ratios

NIM % financial assets

1.85%

2.00%

2.03%

1.03%

1.53%

Impairment charge % net loans

57.62%

0.58%

0.74%

0.58%

4.64%

NPE % gross loans

41.7%

44.2%

45.3%

34.1%

33.6%

Net impaired % net tangible assets

335.1%

357.6%

434.7%

317.0%

135.1%

LLA % NPE coverage

41.7%

44.2%

45.3%

34.1%

33.6%

CET 1 Statutory

4.9%

3.7%

3.1%

12.1%

8.3%

Source: Attica Bank

Valuation and forecasts need clarification

For the time being, we are not publishing forecasts or a valuation for Attica. The bank is going through a truly transformative period, and currently heightened uncertainty regarding the securitisations and the anticipated capital raising makes forecasting and valuation difficult. Although management has been taking important steps to improve its capital, the bank’s capital needs are sizeable when compared to the current market capitalisation of €89m. The amount and timing of the capital raising is likely to affect shareholder dilution (which could be significant) as well as affect the bank’s growth plans. Failure to raise sufficient equity could lead to various outcomes including the bank being sold at a price lower than the current valuation. On the other hand, further successful securitisations and capital injections could see the bank being reborn focused on a high-growth loan segment, with a new digital platform and a cleaned-up balance sheet.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

€000s, year-end 31 December, IFRS

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

INCOME STATEMENT

Net interest income

69,290

43,852

50,754

45,485

Net fees and commissions

6,956

6,540

1,577

10,537

Core revenue

76,246

50,392

52,331

56,022

Other operating income

51,741

21,214

16,862

(2,687)

Revenues

127,987

71,606

69,193

53,336

Cost

(89,192)

(70,043)

(69,122)

(78,469)

Pre-provision profit

38,795

1,563

71

(25,134)

Impairment charge for loan losses

0

0

0

(55,401)

Securitisation loan transfer losses

(27,527)

(24,202)

(264,502)

(22,773)

Impairment other assets

(3,191)

(2,050)

(21,530)

(1,558)

Staff leaving expenses

(1,172)

(212)

Associates

(3,329)

1,042

1,286

704

Profit before tax

4,748

(23,647)

(285,846)

(104,374)

Taxation

(7,105)

28,645

(20,564)

(671)

Non-controlling interest

0

0

0

0

Preference dividend

0

0

0

0

Attributable income

(2,357)

4,998

(306,410)

(105,045)

Shares ranking (m)

461

461

461

1,224

EPS (€)

(0.01)

0.01

(0.66)

(0.09)

Underlying PBT

(25,038)

(23,647)

(285,846)

(104,374)

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and balances with central bank

60,860

138,097

173,778

477,778

Due from Financial institutions

9,516

67,437

52,359

77,858

Investment securities

922,117

955,200

981,061

1,182,328

Loans to customers

1,592,144

1,547,494

1,600,946

1,325,532

Associates

3,427

4,469

4,323

5,077

Property, plant and equipment

31,646

48,468

47,831

40,622

Investment property

57,862

58,340

56,704

57,491

Intangible assets

50,413

52,893

57,673

57,942

Deferred tax assets

420,357

449,734

420,281

267,446

Assets held for sale

0

0

183,302

172,936

Other assets

202,162

205,604

215

1,077

Total Assets

3,350,504

3,527,736

3,578,473

3,666,087

Deposits from financial institutions

424,683

262,456

401,177

222,658

Customer deposits

2,281,875

2,608,157

2,801,439

2,920,578

Debt securities issued

99,676

36,594

99,781

99,833

Defined benefit obligations

12,925

99,729

6,015

6,275

Other provisions

0

11,667

23,917

22,525

Other liabilities

40,449

15,050

36,818

62,721

Total Liabilities

2,859,608

3,033,653

3,369,147

3,334,590

Total Shareholder's Equity

490,896

494,081

209,325

331,496

CAPITAL

Common Equity tier 1 (transitional)

431,148

284,392

148,312

234,646

Total Capital

530,824

384,121

248,041

334,375

Risk-weighted assets

3,204,638

3,222,484

3,005,579

2,825,954

CET1 ratio % (transitional)

13.5%

8.8%

4.9%

8.3%

Total Capital ratio %

16.6%

11.9%

8.3%

11.8%

CET1 ratio % (fully loaded)

8.9%

8.1%

-0.4%

4.9%

ASSET QUALITY

Neither past due nor impaired/ stage 1

710,127

738,764

776,077

820,136

Past due but not impaired/stage 2

379,012

238,917

325,464

135,843

Impaired/ stage 3

755,999

850,698

885,402

699,327

Gross loans

1,845,138

1,828,379

1,986,943

1,655,306

Impairment allowance

252,944

280,885

385,998

329,774

Non-performing exposure as %

41.0%

46.5%

41.7%

33.6%

NPE cash coverage

33.5%

33.0%

42.5%

45.5%

PROFITABILITY

Cost/Revenues

69.7%

97.8%

99.9%

147.1%

Loan impairments % net loans

1.45%

1.54%

16.80%

1.56%

Return on average equity

(0.4%)

1.0%

(146.0%)

(32.0%)

Book value per share (€)

1.06

1.07

0.45

0.27

Tangible equity per share (€)

0.95

0.96

0.33

0.22

Source: Attica Bank


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This report has been commissioned by Attica Bank and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Attica Bank. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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This report has been commissioned by Attica Bank and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Attica Bank. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Research: Healthcare

Pharnext — PREMIER trial completes patient recruitment

Pharnext has announced it has completed patient enrolment in the pivotal Phase III PREMIER trial evaluating PXT3003 in patients with Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease type 1A (CMT1A) meeting its previously announced timeline of Q222. This follows the recently presented positive data from the long-term open-label PLEO-CMT-FU study, which continued to show a sustained benefit for patients after five years of treatment and which has a strong read-across for the PREMIER trial, in our view. Recruitment completion also means that the 15-month study stays on track for a Q423 readout. Success here would make PXT3003, which has orphan drug designation in the United States and Europe, the first drug to be approved for this condition. Pharnext’s share price climbed as high as 62% on the news before settling down to close with a modest gain.

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