Kolibri Global Energy — FY23 reserves show solid replacement rates

Kolibri Global Energy (TSX: KEI)

Last close As at 23/11/2024

4.25

0.05 (1.19%)

Market capitalisation

152m

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Research: Energy & Resources

Kolibri Global Energy — FY23 reserves show solid replacement rates

Kolibri (KEI) released its annual reserves statement, which showed good replacement rates despite a visible increase in average production in FY23. At end-2023, the company’s total gross proved reserves declined by only 3% y-o-y to 32.4mmboe, while the total gross reserves increased by 3% to 79.4mmboe. KEI also reported a netback from operations of US$43.0/boe in FY23, marginally below our estimate of US$43.5/boe, on total average production of 2,796mboe. We will update our estimates and valuation following the upcoming release of the FY23 results.

Written by

Andrey Litvin

Energy and Resources Analyst

IMG_2804

Energy & Resources

Kolibri Global Energy

FY23 reserves show solid replacement rates

Reserves update

Oil and gas

27 March 2024

Price

C$4.3

Market cap

C$153m

Net debt (US$m) at end Q323

24.8

Shares in issue

35.6m

Free float

100%

Code

KEI

Primary exchange

TSX

Secondary exchange

NASDAQ

Share price performance

Business description

Kolibri Global Energy is a junior unconventional exploration and production company operating in the Tishomingo oil field in southern Oklahoma. It earned the right to ‘hold by production’ in over 96% of 17,163 net acres in the Caney/Upper Sycamore formations through historical drilling and participation in the Woodford shale. Kolibri’s total gross reserves were 79mmboe as of December 2023.

Analysts

Andrey Litvin

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Andrew Keen

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Kolibri Global Energy is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Kolibri (KEI) released its annual reserves statement, which showed good replacement rates despite a visible increase in average production in FY23. At end-2023, the company’s total gross proved reserves declined by only 3% y-o-y to 32.4mmboe, while the total gross reserves increased by 3% to 79.4mmboe. KEI also reported a netback from operations of US$43.0/boe in FY23, marginally below our estimate of US$43.5/boe, on total average production of 2,796mboe. We will update our estimates and valuation following the upcoming release of the FY23 results.

Year end

Net revenue
(US$m)

EBITDA
(US$m)

EPS*
(US$)

DPS
(US$)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/21

15.0

9.3

(0.02)

0.00

N/A

N/A

12/22

37.8

28.9

0.47

0.00

12.3

N/A

12/23e

53.2

41.3

0.61

0.00

9.4

N/A

12/24e

72.7

58.7

1.07

0.00

5.4

N/A

Note: *EPS is normalised, excluding exceptional items.

KEI’s FY23 reserves statement demonstrated good replacement rates, with the overall gross proved reserves falling only by 3% y-o-y to 32.4mmboe, despite a strong increase in production during the year (up 70% vs FY22). At the same time, the overall gross reserves grew by 3% y-o-y to 79.4mmboe on the back of a 9% increase in possible reserves. At the proved and probable level, KEI recorded 0.6mmboe in reserves extensions and 0.2mmboe in positive technical revisions (changes associated with revisions in well parameters), while the depletion related to production amounted to 1.0mmboe.

In other news, KEI has reported an FY23 operating netback of US$43.0/boe (US$41.6/boe after commodity contract adjustments) based on the average production of 2,796boed (against revised guidance of 2,800–3,000boed). These compare to our estimates of US$43.5/boe (US$42.4/boe) and 2,881boed, respectively. The company achieved a basket price of US$63.1/boe versus our estimate of US$64.4/boe, while production costs of US$6.6/boe were visibly below our estimate of US$7.1/boe. The provided production and netback numbers imply FY23 gross revenues of US$64.4m (c US$51m net), versus our estimate of US$67.7m (US$53m).

In its reserves update, KEI mentioned it is planning to start drilling its next two wells (62.9% working interest) in April, with the overall number of completions this year maintained at 6–7 wells.

We will update our estimates and valuation of KEI (currently at US$7.1/C$9.5 per share) following the release of full FY23 results. The release has been delayed due to a change in auditor, with the filing now expected no later than 31 May.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Kolibri Global Energy and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Kolibri Global Energy. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

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This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Kolibri Global Energy and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Kolibri Global Energy. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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